The breakdown from Trevor's "Glorious Spring" is likely, I'm afraid to last:

**On Monday, 4th May, at T+240, low pressure will be in charge of the UK weather. Cooler that average conditions will affect much of the UK and periods of, perhaps heavy and showery, rain are likely. If sunshine is found, it is likely to be transient and short-lived**

We'll be looking back to the weather of April with a great deal of envy! I rather hope this forecast is hopelessly wrong and we are basting in warm sunshine in the first week of May, but I doubt it, I'm afraid.

💧 💦 ☔� 💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�

On Fri, 24 Apr 2015 13:20:28 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:
we are basting in warm sunshine in the first week of May

Like turkeys?

I hope it is not a repeat of 2007 when April was the only decent month - following summer was dire

In message ,
Scott W writes
I hope it is not a repeat of 2007 when April was the only decent month
- following summer was dire

That's exactly what I was thinking too.

I've got a bit of a homespun gut feeling, wholly unsupported, theory
that decent spells early in the year ( March and April ) can be the
precursor of a poor summer.

--


Jim

On Saturday, 25 April 2015 00:59:31 UTC+1, Jim Kewley wrote:
In message
Scott W writes
I hope it is not a repeat of 2007 when April was the only decent month
- following summer was dire

That's exactly what I was thinking too.

I've got a bit of a homespun gut feeling, wholly unsupported, theory
that decent spells early in the year ( March and April ) can be the
precursor of a poor summer.

--


Jim

----------------------------------------------------------------------
It was true of the last two dry Aprils.
But, I have looked at the 7 significantly dry Plymouth Aprils in the last 30 years.
They were followed by 5 above average summer temps and 2 below average.
Although some of these were marginal.

30 year average Plymouth summer temp (june,july,aug) 15.92C

Here is year , April rain mm, summer temp C

1984 18 16.47
1990 34 16.33
1995 29 17.88
1997 38 16.00
2006 30 17.20
2007 23 15.50
2011 19 15.48

So do not despair.
The chance is there for a warm summer.
Although I don't like the look of the anomalously cold sea in the N.Atlantic.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnect...-temp-anom.php

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

On 25/04/2015 10:40, Len Wood wrote:
It was true of the last two dry Aprils.
But, I have looked at the 7 significantly dry Plymouth Aprils in the last 30 years.
They were followed by 5 above average summer temps and 2 below average.
Although some of these were marginal.

Len

Wasn't April 1976 dry and sunny, and a little warmer than average?

And we all know what happened in that summer.

--
Nick Gardner
Otter Valley, Devon
20 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

On Saturday, April 25, 2015 at 11:53:40 AM UTC+1, Nick Gardner wrote:
On 25/04/2015 10:40, Len Wood wrote:
It was true of the last two dry Aprils.
But, I have looked at the 7 significantly dry Plymouth Aprils in the last 30 years.
They were followed by 5 above average summer temps and 2 below average.
Although some of these were marginal.

Len

Wasn't April 1976 dry and sunny, and a little warmer than average?

And we all know what happened in that summer.

--
Nick Gardner
Otter Valley, Devon
20 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

I've been through my 24 years of records, and there is basically no relationship between a dry or warm April and the following summer.

My driest Aprils 1991-2014

1995 - we all know what the summer was like (given the age profile of USW posters) an absolute cracker!
1997 - June/Aug wet July dry
2011 - Summer rainfall normal overall
2013 - Dry July wet August, normal June.

Warmest April 2991-2014

1993 - Cool summer
1999 - Cool June, Warm July, normal Aug
2003 - Warm summer
2007 - Warm June, cool July, normal Aug
2011 - Cool summer

If you can find a meaningful pattern in that, congratulations!

Personally, I'm rather pleased there isn't, and that forecast weather detail beyond 3 or 4 days (as opposed to a general idea of the synoptic setup) is pretty rubbish still. It's good to experience the unexpected!

Graham
Penzance

On Saturday, April 25, 2015 at 11:53:40 AM UTC+1, Nick Gardner wrote:
On 25/04/2015 10:40, Len Wood wrote:
It was true of the last two dry Aprils.
But, I have looked at the 7 significantly dry Plymouth Aprils in the last 30 years.
They were followed by 5 above average summer temps and 2 below average.
Although some of these were marginal.

Len

Wasn't April 1976 dry and sunny, and a little warmer than average?

And we all know what happened in that summer.

--
Nick Gardner
Otter Valley, Devon
20 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
You are right Nick.
I was only looking at the last 30 years.

But 1976 was a sweltering summer with mean temp of 17.43C.
Only a bit cooler than 1995 which had 17.88C for Plymouth.

It leads me to wonder about the effect of the change in boundary conditions, what with less Arctic sea ice. The cold anomaly in sea temperature may ramp up the baroclinicity giving us less settled summer conditions.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

On Saturday, April 25, 2015 at 12:59:31 AM UTC+1, Jim Kewley wrote:
In message ,
Scott W writes
I hope it is not a repeat of 2007 when April was the only decent month
- following summer was dire

That's exactly what I was thinking too.

I've got a bit of a homespun gut feeling, wholly unsupported, theory
that decent spells early in the year ( March and April ) can be the
precursor of a poor summer.

--


Jim

Ha! It is, as you say; 'a bit of a homespun gut feeling, wholly unsupported, theory that decent spells early in the year ( March and April ) can be the precursor of a poor summer.'

Thank goodness.

On 24/04/2015 21:20, Dawlish wrote:
The breakdown from Trevor's "Glorious Spring" is likely, I'm afraid to last:

**On Monday, 4th May, at T+240, low pressure will be in charge of the UK weather. Cooler that average conditions will affect much of the UK and periods of, perhaps heavy and showery, rain are likely. If sunshine is found, it is likely to be transient and short-lived**

We'll be looking back to the weather of April with a great deal of envy! I rather hope this forecast is hopelessly wrong and we are basting in warm sunshine in the first week of May, but I doubt it, I'm afraid.

💧 💦 ☔� 💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�💧 💦 ☔�

-------------------------------------------------
So much for the glorious SW in the Scillies for me then!
dave