uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

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Old June 15th 08, 07:37 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Unsettled, heat, then unsettled again, by 25th June.

Some very interesting gfs charts today and for the last couple of
days. There's been enough consistency in the gfs output for me to
forecast that 10 days from now, on the 25th June, the UK weather will
be zonal, with pressure being higher over Europe and a decreasing
pressure gradient towards Northern Scotland. The Atlantic will be
holding sway and the weather will be approaching from the West. Detail
is a zonal spell is impossible to forecast at that distance and there
could, just as easily, be a ridge of high pressure on the 25th, as a
Westward moving front, but ridges will be transitory and they will be
forecast to move eAstwards as low pressures approach from the West

On the run-up to the 25th, the weather will be unsettled from midweek,
this week, but as a low pressure settles to the SW and pushes towards
us, next weekend, it could drag up some very warm air ahead of it. If
the present charts verify, we could see the first 30C of the year
Sunday/Monday of next week and perhaps some spectacular thunderstorms
if the plume of warm air being dragged up from Spain reaches us. A
Spanish plume, rather than a North African one, this time. It's also
possible that it could be pushed East, but temperatures of 35C could
be experienced in the near continent, Northern France, Benelux
countries, or Germany late next weekend and into the start of the week
after.

After that, the weather in the UK will again turn unsettled, with the
odd transitory ridge, for the UK as the 25th approaches.

Both the plume and the unsettled weather to follow have been on the
gfs for 5 runs. A hot solstice and a wet first week of Wimbledon?? 80%
chance for me.

Paul

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Old June 15th 08, 07:51 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Unsettled, heat, then unsettled again, by 25th June.


100% Wrong. All the way to the 25th.
Just like your last so called forecast.

100% consistency in being inaccurate since your spamming of USW began paul.


Dawlish wrote:
Some very interesting gfs charts today and for the last couple of
days. There's been enough consistency in the gfs output for me to
forecast that 10 days from now, on the 25th June, the UK weather will
be zonal, with pressure being higher over Europe and a decreasing
pressure gradient towards Northern Scotland. The Atlantic will be
holding sway and the weather will be approaching from the West. Detail
is a zonal spell is impossible to forecast at that distance and there
could, just as easily, be a ridge of high pressure on the 25th, as a
Westward moving front, but ridges will be transitory and they will be
forecast to move eAstwards as low pressures approach from the West

On the run-up to the 25th, the weather will be unsettled from midweek,
this week, but as a low pressure settles to the SW and pushes towards
us, next weekend, it could drag up some very warm air ahead of it. If
the present charts verify, we could see the first 30C of the year
Sunday/Monday of next week and perhaps some spectacular thunderstorms
if the plume of warm air being dragged up from Spain reaches us. A
Spanish plume, rather than a North African one, this time. It's also
possible that it could be pushed East, but temperatures of 35C could
be experienced in the near continent, Northern France, Benelux
countries, or Germany late next weekend and into the start of the week
after.

After that, the weather in the UK will again turn unsettled, with the
odd transitory ridge, for the UK as the 25th approaches.

Both the plume and the unsettled weather to follow have been on the
gfs for 5 runs. A hot solstice and a wet first week of Wimbledon?? 80%
chance for me.

Paul

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Old June 16th 08, 12:02 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Unsettled, heat, then unsettled again, by 25th June.

On Sun, 15 Jun 2008 19:51:04 +0100, "N.E Zephyr"
wrote:


100% Wrong. All the way to the 25th.
Just like your last so called forecast.

100% consistency in being inaccurate since your spamming of USW began paul.


I am sure there are many on this newsgroup who welcome
opinions/predictions just as there are those that pick up on the daily
observations that are made from around the country. I prefer the
former.
The MetO update their 6-15 day forecast daily at just before noon. It
is a daily read for me at work noticing subtle changes - even the
occasional grammatical howler!
So what exactly is your problem with an opinion about the weather and
what it might hold for us. Everyone knows things change.
RN
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Old June 18th 08, 03:05 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Unsettled, heat, then unsettled again, by 25th June.

On Jun 16, 12:02*am, Robin Nicholson
wrote:
On Sun, 15 Jun 2008 19:51:04 +0100, "N.E Zephyr"
wrote:



100% Wrong. All the way to the 25th.
Just like your last so called forecast.


100% consistency in being inaccurate since your spamming of USW began paul.


I am sure there are many on this newsgroup who welcome
opinions/predictions just as there are those that pick up on the daily
observations that are made from around the country. I prefer the
former.
The MetO update their 6-15 day forecast daily at just before noon. It
is a daily read for me at work noticing subtle changes - even the
occasional grammatical howler!
So what exactly is your problem with an opinion about the weather and
what it might hold for us. Everyone knows things change.
RN


The Met Office forecast today is at odds with the gfs output from the
last 2 runs.

"UK Outlook for Monday 23 Jun 2008 to Wednesday 2 Jul 2008:
Unsettled conditions are expected on Monday and Tuesday with most
regions seeing showers or longer spells of rain at times. More
persistent rain is likely across southern and eastern areas at first
but also in the north and west later. Some southern and western parts
windy at times. The unsettled theme is expected to continue in the
north and west during Wednesday to Friday with showers or rain.
Elsewhere, there should be some fine weather, but occasional spells of
showery rain possible. Temperatures near normal but becoming very warm
at times in the south. For the rest of the period, the weather is
likely to be fairly warm and settled for the most part, especially in
the south, albeit with cooler, showery interludes in the north and
west at times.

Updated: 1154 on Wed 18 Jun 2008"


Fine weather after from Wed 25th and becoming very warm in the South
and settled for the most part, according to the MeTO. I don't agree,
as of the gfs output today. I know it has showed the possibility of
better weather for the middle of next week, but the last two runs have
re-established the unsettled theme for next week. See if the MetO 6-15-
day forecast changes at the next update.

My own forecast from the 15th, 3 days in towards the 25th is looking
OK, but even with 7 days to go the models can alter and the eventual
outcome can change even at a distance of only a week, as the last one
showed! The heat may just catch the far SE, but it may also topple and
affect the near continent, as I'd suggested - where some impressive
temperatures could be recorded Sun/Mon.

Paul
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Old June 19th 08, 12:14 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Unsettled, heat, then unsettled again, by 25th June.

On Jun 16, 12:02*am, Robin Nicholson
wrote:
On Sun, 15 Jun 2008 19:51:04 +0100, "N.E Zephyr"
wrote:



100% Wrong. All the way to the 25th.
Just like your last so called forecast.


100% consistency in being inaccurate since your spamming of USW began paul.


I am sure there are many on this newsgroup who welcome
opinions/predictions just as there are those that pick up on the daily
observations that are made from around the country. I prefer the
former.

The MetO update their 6-15 day forecast daily at just before noon. It
is a daily read for me at work noticing subtle changes - even the
occasional grammatical howler!
So what exactly is your problem with an opinion about the weather and
what it might hold for us. Everyone knows things change.
RN


Quite right. And they aren't even his forecasts in the first place.

Leave him alone, say I, the poor dear. He doesn't hurt anyone.


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Old June 19th 08, 01:40 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Unsettled, heat, then unsettled again, by 25th June.

On Jun 19, 12:14*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Jun 16, 12:02*am, Robin Nicholson





wrote:
On Sun, 15 Jun 2008 19:51:04 +0100, "N.E Zephyr"
wrote:


100% Wrong. All the way to the 25th.
Just like your last so called forecast.


100% consistency in being inaccurate since your spamming of USW began paul.


I am sure there are many on this newsgroup who welcome
opinions/predictions just as there are those that pick up on the daily
observations that are made from around the country. I prefer the
former.


The MetO update their 6-15 day forecast daily at just before noon. It
is a daily read for me at work noticing subtle changes - even the
occasional grammatical howler!
So what exactly is your problem with an opinion about the weather and
what it might hold for us. Everyone knows things change.
RN


Quite right. And they aren't even his forecasts in the first place.

Leave him alone, say I, the poor dear. He doesn't hurt anyone.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


?? Nope, don't get a word. Unintelligable.

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Old June 19th 08, 02:31 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Unsettled, heat, then unsettled again, by 25th June.

On Jun 19, 12:14*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Jun 16, 12:02*am, Robin Nicholson





wrote:
On Sun, 15 Jun 2008 19:51:04 +0100, "N.E Zephyr"
wrote:


100% Wrong. All the way to the 25th.
Just like your last so called forecast.


100% consistency in being inaccurate since your spamming of USW began paul.


I am sure there are many on this newsgroup who welcome
opinions/predictions just as there are those that pick up on the daily
observations that are made from around the country. I prefer the
former.


The MetO update their 6-15 day forecast daily at just before noon. It
is a daily read for me at work noticing subtle changes - even the
occasional grammatical howler!
So what exactly is your problem with an opinion about the weather and
what it might hold for us. Everyone knows things change.
RN


Quite right. And they aren't even his forecasts in the first place.

Leave him alone, say I, the poor dear. He doesn't hurt anyone.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


W; did some digging. You did say that a "major" earthquake was due
didn't you? Well, on another thread, you gave a timing for that,
though you kept that timing secret from us, despite being asked for
some specifics. You did write this, did you not, following the
Earthquake in Northern Japan on the 13th of this month?

"I think so too. It is being touted as an R7 on British TV. We are
only
half way through this spell and there is a major quake due, so even
if
this one is promoted to a mag 7 it will still owe us another for the
end of the run on Wednesday the 18th."

The date has passed. The "major" quake never happened. You were
wrong.

1/5, 20% since April 24th. In that time, your methods have missed
predicting every one of the bigger earthquakes, including the biggest
one of the year, so far, in Sichuan and you missed the biggest
Volcanic eruption too - Chaiten's eruption.

The only way to assess the ability of a forecaster is to monitor
accuracy over time. Don't trust anyone's ability, as a forecaster of
anything, who fails to return to the forecasts they make, to analyse
them and explain the result at outcome; be it right, or wrong.
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Old June 20th 08, 09:57 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Unsettled, heat, then unsettled again, by 25th June.

On Jun 19, 2:31*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 19, 12:14*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:





On Jun 16, 12:02*am, Robin Nicholson


wrote:
On Sun, 15 Jun 2008 19:51:04 +0100, "N.E Zephyr"
wrote:


100% Wrong. All the way to the 25th.
Just like your last so called forecast.


100% consistency in being inaccurate since your spamming of USW began paul.


I am sure there are many on this newsgroup who welcome
opinions/predictions just as there are those that pick up on the daily
observations that are made from around the country. I prefer the
former.


The MetO update their 6-15 day forecast daily at just before noon. It
is a daily read for me at work noticing subtle changes - even the
occasional grammatical howler!
So what exactly is your problem with an opinion about the weather and
what it might hold for us. Everyone knows things change.
RN


Quite right. And they aren't even his forecasts in the first place.


Leave him alone, say I, the poor dear. He doesn't hurt anyone.- Hide quoted text -


- Show quoted text -


W; did some digging. You did say that a "major" earthquake was due
didn't you? Well, on another thread, you gave a timing for that,
though you kept that timing secret from us, despite being asked for
some specifics. You did write this, did you not, following the
Earthquake in Northern Japan on the 13th of this month?

"I think so too. It is being touted as an R7 on British TV. We are
only
half way through this spell and there is a major quake due, so even
if
this one is promoted to a mag 7 it will still owe us another for the
end of the run on Wednesday the 18th."

The date has passed. The "major" quake never happened. You were
wrong.

1/5, 20% since April 24th. In that time, your methods have missed
predicting every one of the bigger earthquakes, including the biggest
one of the year, so far, in Sichuan and you missed the biggest
Volcanic eruption too - Chaiten's eruption.

The only way to assess the ability of a forecaster is to monitor
accuracy over time. Don't trust anyone's ability, as a forecaster of
anything, who fails to return to the forecasts they make, to analyse
them and explain the result at outcome; be it right, or wrong.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


W; just because you have a taste for abuse and a complete lack of
ability to justify your theories by your constant failiure to show
that they can be of any use whatsoever.......may I remind you of the
above? 1/5, 20% accuracy since 24th June.

It's not going well.

Time you forecast an earthquake/volcanic eruption accurately, with
timings, location and strength. Only then will people listen.

I would imagine, on your past record, that this post will be greeted
with either silence, or abuse. Neither would be very convincing. I'd
hope you will put your theories to the test, but that might be a vain
hope.

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Old June 25th 08, 07:12 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Unsettled, heat, then unsettled again, by 25th June.

On Jun 15, 7:37*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Some very interesting gfs charts today and for the last couple of
days. There's been enough consistency in the gfs output for me to
forecast that 10 days from now, on the 25th June, the UK weather will
be zonal, with pressure being higher over Europe and a decreasing
pressure gradient towards Northern Scotland. The Atlantic will be
holding sway and the weather will be approaching from the West. Detail
is a zonal spell is impossible to forecast at that distance and there
could, just as easily, be a ridge of high pressure on the 25th, as a
Westward moving front, but ridges will be transitory and they will be
forecast to move eAstwards as low pressures approach from the West

On the run-up to the 25th, the weather will be unsettled from midweek,
this week, but as a low pressure settles to the SW and pushes towards
us, next weekend, it could drag up some very warm air ahead of it. If
the present charts verify, we could see the first 30C of the year
Sunday/Monday of next week and perhaps some spectacular thunderstorms
if the plume of warm air being dragged up from Spain reaches us. A
Spanish plume, rather than a North African one, this time. It's also
possible that it could be pushed East, but temperatures of 35C could
be experienced in the near continent, Northern France, Benelux
countries, or Germany late next weekend and into the start of the week
after.

After that, the weather in the UK will again turn unsettled, with the
odd transitory ridge, for the UK as the 25th approaches.



Paul


Zonal; fronts queueing up to the West, but the SE faring better than
tha NW. A good forecast this time, at 10 days. Beats the last one that
was good for 8/9 days, but didn't anticipate the establishment of
zonal conditions right at the end.The unsettled theme for today was
shown on 5 consecutive runs of the gfs back on the 14th/15th June. On
the way to today's outcome, the plume toppled and was not quite as
warm as I'd thought it might be, The only vestige of heat for the UK
was a very warm night in mT air on Saturday, with some thunderstorms
for some areas.

I've forecast zonal conditions continuing to the end of the month as
my next 10-day forecast and I don't see any reason to change that.
Once established, it's hard to get rid of zonal conditions, but there
may be some hints of blocking developing over Scandinavia which could
interrupt the zonal flow.

Paul

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Old June 25th 08, 06:55 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Unsettled, heat, then unsettled again, by 25th June.

On Jun 25, 7:12*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 15, 7:37*pm, Dawlish wrote:



I've forecast zonal conditions continuing to the end of the month as
my next 10-day forecast and I don't see any reason to change that.
Once established, it's hard to get rid of zonal conditions, but there
may be some hints of blocking developing over Scandinavia which could
interrupt the zonal flow.


2 more runs with that Scandinavian blocking showing on the gfs. Could
there be hints of the zonal train hitting the buffers? Not enough
consistency, yet.

Paul




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