In article ,
Scott W writes:
On Monday, December 2, 2013 8:04:31 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, November 30, 2013 1:29:50 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:

Also interesting that each model run is showing this airstream
being pushed further eastwards more quickly that the previous
ones. As a result, by Thursday, it's influence may be even less
than is presently being forecast.

There seems to be more of a tendency these days for this to
happen - many 'cold northerly plunges' end up getting pushed
east, with snow staying in the North Sea. Or is it just a symptom
that has become apparent since model watching became
popular?


Probably the latter. I can't recall a time since I started model
watching when it didn't often happen. My impression is that the GFS is
particularly prone to it.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Tuesday, December 3, 2013 10:23:27 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

Scott W writes:

On Monday, December 2, 2013 8:04:31 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

On Saturday, November 30, 2013 1:29:50 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:



Also interesting that each model run is showing this airstream

being pushed further eastwards more quickly that the previous

ones. As a result, by Thursday, it's influence may be even less

than is presently being forecast.



There seems to be more of a tendency these days for this to

happen - many 'cold northerly plunges' end up getting pushed

east, with snow staying in the North Sea. Or is it just a symptom

that has become apparent since model watching became

popular?





Probably the latter. I can't recall a time since I started model

watching when it didn't often happen. My impression is that the GFS is

particularly prone to it.

--

John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat

The subjects of the King,

And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:

Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

I'd agree; based on the number of times I've seen coldies wring their hands when these Arctic plunges topple eastwards and miss the UK - and the flak I've takes for saying that is exactly what may happen. Often, it's as if I was being personally blamed for saying that the cold may well not affect the UK in the way so many wanted. *))

In article ,
says...
and the flak I've takes for saying that is exactly what may happen.


Would you care to post a pointer to some of that flak? Afaicr, all the
flak you have received is because of your derision and contempt for the
coldies ever having posted at all.

I don't recall you receiving much flak just for saying that a particular
outcome was "unlikely".

--
Alan LeHun
Reply-to is valid. Add "BPSF" to subject: to bypass spam filters.

On Tuesday, December 3, 2013 9:44:24 PM UTC, Alan LeHun wrote:
In article ,

says...

and the flak I've takes for saying that is exactly what may happen.





Would you care to post a pointer to some of that flak? Afaicr, all the

flak you have received is because of your derision and contempt for the

coldies ever having posted at all.



I don't recall you receiving much flak just for saying that a particular

outcome was "unlikely".



--

Alan LeHun

Reply-to is valid. Add "BPSF" to subject: to bypass spam filters.

Your opinion is noted....................and safely ignored.

In article ,
says...

Would you care to post a pointer to some of that flak?

[...]


Your opinion is noted....................and safely ignored.


That'll be a no, then.

--
Alan LeHun
Reply-to is valid. Add "BPSF" to subject: to bypass spam filters.

On Wednesday, November 27, 2013 10:18:14 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
I see Will is betting against the models and going for widespread snow

at the beginning of December. Should get Dawlish going. Seems a bit

different to what Martin Gibbs is saying at the moment. Whatever happens

don't want to get stuck in HP gloom for too long. We had it one February

recently and didn't see the sun for a month.

Dave

Just to return to this. The blogcast was wrong. No snow on Dartmoor, even at 500m and the Arctic plunge produced snow only on Northern hills and in a few lower locations in Scotland. What Will missed completely was the strength of the winds - not mentioned in his blog.

Dawlish wrote:

What Will missed completely was the strength of the winds -
not mentioned in his blog.

So did everybody.
I don't recall the very strong winds being mentioned more
than a few days before the event.
Even on the Countryfile forecast 4 days before the emphasis
was much more on the cold and snow than wind.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Tuesday, December 10, 2013 6:42:53 AM UTC, Col wrote:
Dawlish wrote:



What Will missed completely was the strength of the winds -

not mentioned in his blog.



So did everybody.

I don't recall the very strong winds being mentioned more

than a few days before the event.

Even on the Countryfile forecast 4 days before the emphasis

was much more on the cold and snow than wind.

--

Col



Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

True. The models were clearly not in a state where it was possible to forecast accurately from 10 days out.

In article ,
Col writes:
Dawlish wrote:

What Will missed completely was the strength of the winds -
not mentioned in his blog.

So did everybody.
I don't recall the very strong winds being mentioned more
than a few days before the event.
Even on the Countryfile forecast 4 days before the emphasis
was much more on the cold and snow than wind.

And remember that Will's forecasts are specifically for Dartmoor, where
I don't believe the wind was especially notable.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Tuesday, December 10, 2013 7:16:17 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

Col writes:

Dawlish wrote:



What Will missed completely was the strength of the winds -

not mentioned in his blog.



So did everybody.

I don't recall the very strong winds being mentioned more

than a few days before the event.

Even on the Countryfile forecast 4 days before the emphasis

was much more on the cold and snow than wind.



And remember that Will's forecasts are specifically for Dartmoor, where

I don't believe the wind was especially notable.

--

John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat

The subjects of the King,

And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:

Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

IIRC the blog comment was not specifically for Dartmoor. He was talking about widespread snow across the whole country. The blog and his weekly forecast are two different beasts.