On 07/07/2013 11:15, Mike McMillan wrote:
Mike McMillan Osborne bay (currently 21.2 degrees, waiting for a sea breeze to develop.

Currently (11:44) 27.1C and a DP of 18C, and no wind.

Awaiting a sea breeze that doesn't look like it is going to materialise
(unlike yesterday when it blew strongly all day keeping the temperature
pegged back to 23C and a DP of 14C).

Methinks it is head for the beach time.....

--
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
20 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

On Sunday, July 7, 2013 11:47:39 AM UTC+1, Nick Gardner wrote:
On 07/07/2013 11:15, Mike McMillan wrote:

Mike McMillan Osborne bay (currently 21.2 degrees, waiting for a sea breeze to develop.



Currently (11:44) 27.1C and a DP of 18C, and no wind.



Awaiting a sea breeze that doesn't look like it is going to materialise

(unlike yesterday when it blew strongly all day keeping the temperature

pegged back to 23C and a DP of 14C).



Methinks it is head for the beach time.....



--

Nick G

Otter Valley, Devon

20 m amsl

http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

Exeter this morning was very warm. Car thermometer read 29C coming out of the city. Cafe culture. Sunglasses on. Everyone in summer clothes.......Wow!

On Sunday, 7 July 2013 13:02:36 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, July 7, 2013 11:47:39 AM UTC+1, Nick Gardner wrote:

On 07/07/2013 11:15, Mike McMillan wrote:



Mike McMillan Osborne bay (currently 21.2 degrees, waiting for a sea breeze to develop.







Currently (11:44) 27.1C and a DP of 18C, and no wind.







Awaiting a sea breeze that doesn't look like it is going to materialise



(unlike yesterday when it blew strongly all day keeping the temperature



pegged back to 23C and a DP of 14C).







Methinks it is head for the beach time.....







--



Nick G



Otter Valley, Devon



20 m amsl



http://www.ottervalley.co.uk



Exeter this morning was very warm. Car thermometer read 29C coming out of the city. Cafe culture. Sunglasses on. Everyone in summer clothes.......Wow!

Now Paul don't get tempted to try out that bikini again, you know what happened last time?

On Sunday, 7 July 2013 11:47:39 UTC+1, Nick Gardner wrote:
On 07/07/2013 11:15, Mike McMillan wrote:

Mike McMillan Osborne bay (currently 21.2 degrees, waiting for a sea breeze to develop.



Currently (11:44) 27.1C and a DP of 18C, and no wind.



Awaiting a sea breeze that doesn't look like it is going to materialise

(unlike yesterday when it blew strongly all day keeping the temperature

pegged back to 23C and a DP of 14C).



Methinks it is head for the beach time.....



--

Nick G

Otter Valley, Devon

20 m amsl

http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

S.E.Sea breeze made it in at 17.00 for 3 hours, about 7-10 knots. 120 craft anchored in the bay.

Mike McMillan

Osborne Bay

On 06/07/2013 8:41 PM, Teignmouth wrote:
Forgot to say, the grass is starting to turn yellow on many of the roadside verges here in South Devon.

Not starting to here, already gone.

--
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
20 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

"Mike McMillan" wrote in message
...
I am sure I am not alone in watching the graphs he

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

I am of the opinion that this is a pivotal year, whether we are really on
a catastrophic course of self destruction or if this is just a relatively
"normal" cycle of some sort. The graph up until two weeks ago was dropping
at the relatively new norm of 1981-2013 average. It is now falling off the
cliff. The Arctic sea ice June news suggests lower than (recent) average
temperatures in the area. This now seems to have changed dramatically.
This and the almost complete absence of any significant jet stream at 120
hrs http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_atl_h120_00.gif, has me wondering
if the moment of truth has not arrived. Only last week the met office was
telling us that we we could expect another 10 years of poor
summers...........

I've been following the graphs too, but didn't post waiting to see if the
dive in ice extent continued, which it didn't on these charts:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/i...timeseries.png
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ch...sea-ice-graph/
But did on this chart:
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

The ice area seems to have contined to fall at a steady rate:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/...i_ice_area.png

Meanwhile, meltponds and open water seem to be appearing at the "North
Pole".
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/18.jpg
But the temperature there is still below normal:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/mea...meanT_2013.png

Comparing maps of the ice from previous years, there seems to be no
noticable
change in the pattern:
http://www.abmcdonald.freeserve.co.uk/north.htm

My guess for later in the season is that, just as it did last year, the ice
will continue to retreat quickly throughout August. I think that was because
there was no thick multiyear ice to slow its progress. Thus we could have a
new minimum in September, despite the ice area being about the average, for
the last few years, at present.

Cheers, Alastair.

"Alastair McDonald" wrote in message ...

Thus we could have a
new minimum in September, despite the ice area being about the average, for
the last few years, at present.
=========================

I'm not sure that PIOMAS agrees, depending on how much store you set by
that. It certainly looks like another moderately low year, though perhaps
not record-breaking this year.

JGD

On Wed, 10 Jul 2013 18:39:10 +0100
"General" wrote:

"Alastair McDonald" wrote in message
...

Thus we could have a
new minimum in September, despite the ice area being about the
average, for the last few years, at present.
=========================

I'm not sure that PIOMAS agrees, depending on how much store you set
by that. It certainly looks like another moderately low year, though
perhaps not record-breaking this year.


PIOMAS is saying that the volume is greater than the last couple of
years but I reckon that's mainly or wholly due to the larger area and
does not represent any increase in thickness.

The volume for this year is about the same as 2010 although the area
that year looks to have been smaller, with much less ice in Hudson Bay
and Beaufort Sea than this year. So this would suggest that PIOMAS is
saying thickness is lower than 2010.



--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks.
A lot of care homes use computer games to keep their residents
physically active. That's why old people smell of wii.
[https://twitter.com/BridgetandJoan]

"General" wrote in message
...
"Alastair McDonald" wrote in message ...

Thus we could have a
new minimum in September, despite the ice area being about the average,
for
the last few years, at present.
=========================

I'm not sure that PIOMAS agrees, depending on how much store you set by
that. It certainly looks like another moderately low year, though perhaps
not record-breaking this year.

JGD

As Graham has implied, the PIOMAS daily volume is following a similar
trajectory to the the daily ice area charts. So that does not counter my
evidence.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpr...rrentV2_CY.png

But the Ice Volume Anomally and Trend tells a slightly different story:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpr...yCurrentV2.png
It shows that each of the last three years has set a new minimum for ice
volume after a steep drop during the summer. Presumably the steep drop
began a little later this year, but where it ends is what matters.

Both charts can be seen he
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpr...olume-anomaly/

Cheers, Alastair.

"Alastair McDonald" wrote in message ...

As Graham has implied, the PIOMAS daily volume is following a similar
trajectory to the the daily ice area charts. So that does not counter my
evidence.
==================================

What will be will be of course. (Where's that Doris Day when you need her?)

Alistair, I don't think that the 'similar trajectory' argument helps your
case much. The PIOMAS detail shows that the melt curves do indeed broadly
have the same trajectory, but currently it's tracking 2010 and not 11 or 12.
Still pretty low of course (and indeed it looks like the NE passage could
open before too long, provided the East Siberian Sea gets a move on) but not
looking like record-breaking territory, as far as one can judge at this
point in the N summer.

Graham, not surprisingly, has a more specific and credible point, but
difficult to evaluate without doing the calculations. I guess what it would
be nice to know is the area of ice with a mean thickness 1m (or is that too
think to melt now - perhaps 0.5m then). Don't know whether the PIOMAS model
can estimate this kind of number - it would be interesting to see an output
of area at different estimated thickness categories.

JGD