Link to an article in the Torbay Herald Express, about the Met Office getting better at predicting 'Big Freezes'.

http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/Bi...ail/story.html

"Teignmouth" wrote in message
...
Link to an article in the Torbay Herald Express, about the Met Office
getting better at predicting 'Big Freezes'.

http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/Bi...ail/story.html

Remember all the grief I got on here last winter for talking about
stratwarms and links to severe winters?
Unfortunately at the time I had to keep my gob shut about the research and
the way it was potentially pointing :-(
Ah well that won't happen now :-)
Thanks for the link DG "Teignmouth", keep in touch.

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

In article ,
Dartmoor Will writes:

"Teignmouth" wrote in message
.
..
Link to an article in the Torbay Herald Express, about the Met
Office getting better at predicting 'Big Freezes'.

http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/Bi...e-predictions-
better/story-16919859-detail/story.html

Remember all the grief I got on here last winter for talking about
stratwarms and links to severe winters?
Unfortunately at the time I had to keep my gob shut about the
research and the way it was potentially pointing :-(
Ah well that won't happen now :-)
Thanks for the link DG "Teignmouth", keep in touch.

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

There was also an article in the Daily Telegraph, last Friday I think
(but it could have been Thursday or even Saturday). A search of their
website should turn it up.
--
John Hall

"The beatings will continue until morale improves."
Attributed to the Commander of Japan's Submarine Forces in WW2

On 17/09/12 13:57, Dartmoor Will wrote:

"Teignmouth" wrote in message
...
Link to an article in the Torbay Herald Express, about the Met Office
getting better at predicting 'Big Freezes'.

http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/Bi...ail/story.html


Remember all the grief I got on here last winter for talking about
stratwarms and links to severe winters?
Unfortunately at the time I had to keep my gob shut about the research
and the way it was potentially pointing :-(

Yes I do, I did think at the time you seemed to take the flak without
defending yourself, and I wondered why at times. Now I know.

On 17/09/2012 19:28, Adam Lea wrote:
On 17/09/12 13:57, Dartmoor Will wrote:

"Teignmouth" wrote in message
...
Link to an article in the Torbay Herald Express, about the Met Office
getting better at predicting 'Big Freezes'.

http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/Bi...ail/story.html



Remember all the grief I got on here last winter for talking about
stratwarms and links to severe winters?
Unfortunately at the time I had to keep my gob shut about the research
and the way it was potentially pointing :-(

Yes I do, I did think at the time you seemed to take the flak without
defending yourself, and I wondered why at times. Now I know.

IIRC, the link between "stratwarms" and surface "blocking" has been at
least suspected since the 1980s. I remember going to a Royal Met. Soc.
meeting where this was discussed and some case studies presented.
Perhaps you were there as well, Will, or remember reading the paper
presented.

Last winter, the "Netweather" seasonal forecaster over-rode his computer
model guidance and forecast a colder than average end to Winter on the
basis that various indicators pointed to a likely "stratwarm" late
January / February. Perhaps now the models have been refined, we can
move on from gut feeling and "indications" to something you can put
numbers on.

And we must not forget the caveat in the Met Office article - not all
severe winter weather episodes are linked to stratospheric warming! So
their new model refinement still might not pick 'em all.

--
- Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.

On Sep 18, 8:06*pm, Yokel wrote:
On 17/09/2012 19:28, Adam Lea wrote:





On 17/09/12 13:57, Dartmoor Will wrote:

"Teignmouth" wrote in message
...
Link to an article in the Torbay Herald Express, about the Met Office
getting better at predicting 'Big Freezes'.

http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/Bi...s-better/story....

Remember all the grief I got on here last winter for talking about
stratwarms and links to severe winters?
Unfortunately at the time I had to keep my gob shut about the research
and the way it was potentially pointing :-(

Yes I do, I did think at the time you seemed to take the flak without
defending yourself, and I wondered why at times. Now I know.

IIRC, the link between "stratwarms" and surface "blocking" has been at
least suspected since the 1980s. *I remember going to a Royal Met. Soc.
meeting where this was discussed and some case studies presented.
Perhaps you were there as well, Will, or remember reading the paper
presented.

Last winter, the "Netweather" seasonal forecaster over-rode his computer
model guidance and forecast a colder than average end to Winter on the
basis that various indicators pointed to a likely "stratwarm" late
January / February. *Perhaps now the models have been refined, we can
move on from gut feeling and "indications" to something you can put
numbers on.

And we must not forget the caveat in the Met Office article - not all
severe winter weather episodes are linked to stratospheric warming! *So
their new model refinement still might not pick 'em all.

--
- Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It was suggested back in the 70s that strat cooling might have led to
the surface blocking that gave the 75-76 drought.
Evidence was a bit thin to support this, although the associated
cooling and accompanying deep subsidence was a tempting explanation.

With a bit more reserach, we are now saying that strat warming might
lead to surface blocking and cooling in winter.

To use it as a forecasting tool is a big leap of faith, but the UKMO
is talking in terms of probabilty of course, confidence would grow as
the strat warming evolved.

I suspect it is only useful on the 7 to 10 day ahead scale in
forecasting. Obviously no good for seasonal forecasts and probably not
monthly either.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon

On Tuesday, September 18, 2012 8:37:45 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:

Obviously no good for seasonal forecasts and probably not

monthly either.


============

Adam Scaife's presentation at ECMWF suggested that the extended model has value at all time scales from short term to seasonal - not just for identifying potential stratospheric warming better, obviously, which we shouldn't solely focus on.

Stephen.

On Tuesday, September 18, 2012 8:06:59 PM UTC+1, Yokel wrote:
On 17/09/2012 19:28, Adam Lea wrote:

On 17/09/12 13:57, Dartmoor Will wrote:



"Teignmouth" wrote in message

...

Link to an article in the Torbay Herald Express, about the Met Office

getting better at predicting 'Big Freezes'.



http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/Bi...ail/story.html







Remember all the grief I got on here last winter for talking about

stratwarms and links to severe winters?

Unfortunately at the time I had to keep my gob shut about the research

and the way it was potentially pointing :-(



Yes I do, I did think at the time you seemed to take the flak without

defending yourself, and I wondered why at times. Now I know.



IIRC, the link between "stratwarms" and surface "blocking" has been at

least suspected since the 1980s. I remember going to a Royal Met. Soc.

meeting where this was discussed and some case studies presented.

Perhaps you were there as well, Will, or remember reading the paper

presented.



Last winter, the "Netweather" seasonal forecaster over-rode his computer

model guidance and forecast a colder than average end to Winter on the

basis that various indicators pointed to a likely "stratwarm" late

January / February. Perhaps now the models have been refined, we can

move on from gut feeling and "indications" to something you can put

numbers on.



And we must not forget the caveat in the Met Office article - not all

severe winter weather episodes are linked to stratospheric warming! So

their new model refinement still might not pick 'em all.


================

True. And not all stratospheric warming events produce severe cold.

But back to your point, it's arguable that the cold in February was not the result of a proper strat warm. We never really got a full poleward vector of the E-P flux (although the PV shifted and weakened) and it was that immense and intensely cold Asian HP drifting west, as they are wont to do in second half of winter.

Of course, just via climate one can suggest a strat warm in Jan-Feb and be right about 50% of the time. It's whether it propagates through the troposphere that the difficulty comes.

The concept, as you say, has been around a long time, and I think it was only one individual last year who who was overly critical, IIRC correctly. I like the stride taken with this extended model but I hope that people do not go overboard. I fear that since it has filtered to the popular press (and slightly "trumpeted", unfortunately) it will be another stick with which to beat meteorologists in general and the Met Office in particular if/when it misses just once.

Meanwhile in my role I shall still need to try to make a call before the models can via other indicators/teleconnections. It wil be an interesting winter, perhaps.

Stephen.

On Sep 18, 8:06*pm, Yokel wrote:
On 17/09/2012 19:28, Adam Lea wrote:









On 17/09/12 13:57, Dartmoor Will wrote:

"Teignmouth" wrote in message
...
Link to an article in the Torbay Herald Express, about the Met Office
getting better at predicting 'Big Freezes'.

http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/Bi...s-better/story....

Remember all the grief I got on here last winter for talking about
stratwarms and links to severe winters?
Unfortunately at the time I had to keep my gob shut about the research
and the way it was potentially pointing :-(

Yes I do, I did think at the time you seemed to take the flak without
defending yourself, and I wondered why at times. Now I know.

IIRC, the link between "stratwarms" and surface "blocking" has been at
least suspected since the 1980s. *I remember going to a Royal Met. Soc.
meeting where this was discussed and some case studies presented.
Perhaps you were there as well, Will, or remember reading the paper
presented.

Last winter, the "Netweather" seasonal forecaster over-rode his computer
model guidance and forecast a colder than average end to Winter on the
basis that various indicators pointed to a likely "stratwarm" late
January / February. *Perhaps now the models have been refined, we can
move on from gut feeling and "indications" to something you can put
numbers on.

You can put numbers on cloakroom tickets. But you must be careful what
numbers or you could lose your shirt -and colours. You've got to watch
out for the right colours too.
Unless its a white shirt.

On Sep 17, 1:57*pm, "Dartmoor Will" wrote:
"Teignmouth" wrote in message

...

Link to an article in the Torbay Herald Express, about the Met Office
getting better at predicting 'Big Freezes'.

http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/Bi...s-better/story...

Remember all the grief I got on here last winter for talking about
stratwarms and links to severe winters?

No.

Unfortunately at the time I had to keep my gob shut about the research and
the way it was potentially pointing.

Jesus he say:
Whgat you hear whispered in corners shout from the rooftops.
(Mind you, he never made it to retirement.)

Ah well that won't happen now.

Do tell.

What a
phenomena known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs).

These "usual westerly winds in the stratosphere" 10km to 50km above
the ground known as sudden stratospheric warmings. And how do they
"stop or reverse, causing a knock-on effect at surface level."?

Westerly winds blowing warm air from the North Atlantic across
Northern Europe are blocked, causing extended periods of very low
temperatures.

Some sort of Block eh?
Nothing to do with the stuff at sea level, perchance?

Do they know what numbers to put on the model to account for the
Japanese seismic activity engendered?