On 17/09/2012 19:28, Adam Lea wrote:
On 17/09/12 13:57, Dartmoor Will wrote:

"Teignmouth" wrote in message
...
Link to an article in the Torbay Herald Express, about the Met Office
getting better at predicting 'Big Freezes'.

http://www.thisissouthdevon.co.uk/Bi...ail/story.html



Remember all the grief I got on here last winter for talking about
stratwarms and links to severe winters?
Unfortunately at the time I had to keep my gob shut about the research
and the way it was potentially pointing :-(

Yes I do, I did think at the time you seemed to take the flak without
defending yourself, and I wondered why at times. Now I know.

IIRC, the link between "stratwarms" and surface "blocking" has been at
least suspected since the 1980s. I remember going to a Royal Met. Soc.
meeting where this was discussed and some case studies presented.
Perhaps you were there as well, Will, or remember reading the paper
presented.

Last winter, the "Netweather" seasonal forecaster over-rode his computer
model guidance and forecast a colder than average end to Winter on the
basis that various indicators pointed to a likely "stratwarm" late
January / February. Perhaps now the models have been refined, we can
move on from gut feeling and "indications" to something you can put
numbers on.

And we must not forget the caveat in the Met Office article - not all
severe winter weather episodes are linked to stratospheric warming! So
their new model refinement still might not pick 'em all.

--
- Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.