This is particularly interesting as UKMO give half their webpage title
and nearly half their website resources to AGW for which much of their
decrees are based purely on computer model projections. They also have
t6hat very expensive computer based in Exeter.

Of course any sane free thinking rational person wouldn't make such
daft predictions as toe curlingly shown in the PDF, alas due to the
AGW /Elf 'n' Safety Party Line they have to keep pushing extremes that
underline AGW-hence the embarrasing drought forecast made in this
forecast below and more detail in the PDF.

Opps....!!!!

Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: April – June 2012 Issue date: 23.03.12

The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than
average
conditions for AprilMayJune
as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the
driest of the 3 months.
With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern
and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the
AprilMayJune
period.
The probability that UK precipitation for AprilMayJune
will fall into the driest of our five categories is 2025%
whilst the probability that it will fall into
the wettest of our five categories is 1015%
(the 19712000
climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).



http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...precip-AMJ.pdf

On May 1, 9:31*am, Lawrence13 wrote:
This is particularly interesting as UKMO give half their webpage title
and nearly half their website resources to AGW for which much of their
decrees are based purely on computer model projections. They also have
t6hat very expensive computer based in Exeter.

Of course any sane free thinking rational person wouldn't make such
daft predictions as toe curlingly shown in the PDF, alas due to the
AGW /Elf 'n' Safety Party Line they have to keep pushing extremes that
underline AGW-hence the embarrasing drought forecast made in this
forecast below and more detail in the PDF.

Opps....!!!!

Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: April – June 2012 Issue date: 23.03.12

The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than
average
conditions for AprilMayJune
as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the
driest of the 3 months.
With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern
and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the
AprilMayJune
period.
The probability that UK precipitation for AprilMayJune
will fall into the driest of our five categories is 2025%
whilst the probability that it will fall into
the wettest of our five categories is 1015%
(the 19712000
climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...precip-AMJ.pdf

Now this really is taking the proverbial

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/rel...pril-on-record

How did we get from AMJ 2012 being drier than average with April being
the driest to the wettest April in 100 years. As Richard Littlejohn
would say

"You can't make this up"

Lawrence13 wrote:

How did we get from AMJ 2012 being drier than average with April being
the driest to the wettest April in 100 years.
----------------------------------------------
Easily - one was a prediction, one is a statement of fact. It was
clearly a very innacurate prediction. However this proves what I keep
saying - scientists make the best prediction they can based on the
evidence they have. Then if it gives a poor result they will investigate
to see if they can learn why the prediction was poor. They won't
"change" the prediction to avoid criticism nor be afraid to state the
fact - i.e that it has been the wettest April. I'm afraid that's how it
works.
The only caveat I would add to that is that I think the science in the
field of weather and climate prediction is somewhat less precise than we
are sometimes led to believe.
Dave

On 01/05/2012 11:42, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Lawrence13 wrote:

How did we get from AMJ 2012 being drier than average with April being
the driest to the wettest April in 100 years.
----------------------------------------------
Easily - one was a prediction, one is a statement of fact. It was
clearly a very innacurate prediction. However this proves what I keep
saying - scientists make the best prediction they can based on the
evidence they have. Then if it gives a poor result they will
investigate to see if they can learn why the prediction was poor. They
won't "change" the prediction to avoid criticism nor be afraid to
state the fact - i.e that it has been the wettest April. I'm afraid
that's how it works.
The only caveat I would add to that is that I think the science in the
field of weather and climate prediction is somewhat less precise than
we are sometimes led to believe.
Dave

Read the "Netweather" April forecast (it was still up at the time of
posting). They got caught as well. This was their April rainfall
prediction.

"Despite an unsettled theme, rainfall will probably only come out close
to normal in most regions, thus not really helping the drought situation
in the south-east (though at least not making it worse). I envisage
rainfall excesses of 20-50% across western Scotland and north-west
England, but small deficits are likely in southern and south-western
England."

But, as as been evident from following the "Spaghetti" charts, the
weather has been very unpredictable for the last few weeks and so no
computer model prediction was likely to score very highly. It hasn't
settled yet - I have today seen three very different predictions for the
next 10 days on the "Netweather" site (taken from the GFS model) and by
the time you reach 11 May there is a range of 40hPa in the surface
pressure predictions for Hampshire.

The current Met Office 16-30 day outlook uses 84 words to say
essentially "don't know". If you are a fan of the seaweed or skilled at
casting the runes, now is your hour...

--
- Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.

Yokel wrote:
On 01/05/2012 11:42, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Lawrence13 wrote:

How did we get from AMJ 2012 being drier than average with April being
the driest to the wettest April in 100 years.
----------------------------------------------
Easily - one was a prediction, one is a statement of fact. It was
clearly a very innacurate prediction. However this proves what I keep
saying - scientists make the best prediction they can based on the
evidence they have. Then if it gives a poor result they will
investigate to see if they can learn why the prediction was poor. They
won't "change" the prediction to avoid criticism nor be afraid to
state the fact - i.e that it has been the wettest April. I'm afraid
that's how it works.
The only caveat I would add to that is that I think the science in the
field of weather and climate prediction is somewhat less precise than
we are sometimes led to believe.
Dave

Read the "Netweather" April forecast (it was still up at the time of
posting). They got caught as well. This was their April rainfall
prediction.

"Despite an unsettled theme, rainfall will probably only come out close
to normal in most regions, thus not really helping the drought situation
in the south-east (though at least not making it worse). I envisage
rainfall excesses of 20-50% across western Scotland and north-west
England, but small deficits are likely in southern and south-western
England."

But, as as been evident from following the "Spaghetti" charts, the
weather has been very unpredictable for the last few weeks and so no
computer model prediction was likely to score very highly. It hasn't
settled yet - I have today seen three very different predictions for the
next 10 days on the "Netweather" site (taken from the GFS model) and by
the time you reach 11 May there is a range of 40hPa in the surface
pressure predictions for Hampshire.

The current Met Office 16-30 day outlook uses 84 words to say
essentially "don't know". If you are a fan of the seaweed or skilled at
casting the runes, now is your hour...

-------------------------
Well put :-)
Dave

"Lawrence13" wrote in message
...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...precip-AMJ.pdf

Now this really is taking the proverbial

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/rel...pril-on-record

How did we get from AMJ 2012 being drier than average with April being
the driest to the wettest April in 100 years. As Richard Littlejohn
would say

"You can't make this up"
================================================== ============================================
Hi Lawrence...welcome back!

Well the PDF does say that the outlook is a possible solution AND that it
should not be taken in isolation but used with 30, 15 and 1-5 day
forecasts... Can't imagine they advertise they are 100% accurate - much
prefer to see a trend / track record before final judgement however, as you
point out, not a good outlook indicator on this one occasion...thus far!

If it was that April was to be the driest...buckets please...!

Joe