Severe Weather Forecast





TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2010/002 and TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2010/006

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been updated at 12:52GMT on Wednesday 14th July
2010

Valid from/until: 09:20 - 2200GMT on Wednesday 14th July 2010 for the
following regions of the United Kingdom & Ei

England

Wales

S Scotland

Channel Is

THREATS

Tornadoes; hail to 15mm diameter; CG lightning; wind gusts

SYNOPSIS

Slow-moving upper low lies close to SW Eire, with associated surface low in
a similar position. Moist, unstable rPm airmass over the WATCH area. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop, and with low LCLs and reasonable
(15-20 knots) of 0-1km bulk shear, there is a risk of a few tornadoes. The
highest risk appears to be across northern England and southern Scotland
this afternoon/evening, where backed surface INVOF surface cold front
increases low-level shear. Deep layer shear is sufficient for organised
multicell storms, and small lines of storms could develop through the day.
Low-level mesocyclones are possible across N England/S Scotland, with the
backed surface flow.

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 09:20GMT on Wednesday 14th
July 2010

Valid from/until: 09:20 - 1900GMT on Wednesday 14th July 2010 for the
following regions of the United Kingdom & Ei

Eire

N Ireland

THREATS

Tornadoes; heavy rain; CG lightning; hail

SYNOPSIS

See TORNADO WATCH above for synoptics. Across this area, weaker flow will
limit tornado potential - however, convergence zones may set-up in places,
especially in the west. A risk of a tornado or two where any storms can
interact with these boundaries, or where adjacent storms' gusts fronts
interact.

Forecaster: RPK.