On Jun 15, 6:17*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

Is there a reason for you to top post?

Kate | wrote

Here we are just on the Dordogne and it's horrible,
cold, wet, nasty little cold breeze, and
no respite in the offing for the rest of the week.

*It's usually really nice this time of year
and sometimes really, really hot.

There have been flash floods and disastrous storms all over the southern half of France in this week.

France, like Poland in the last one, will get more flooding this
spell:

"DRAGUIGNAN, France — Heavy rains triggered flash floods in the
mountains above France's southern Cote d'Azur region on Tuesday,
killing seven people, while at least another eight were missing, a
local official said.

Water levels swiftly rose by several metres, preventing many from
fleeing to higher ground and forcing some to seek shelter on the roofs
of their homes.

Rescue services were focussing their efforts on helping hundreds of
people trapped in the vehicles, houses or on the roofs of their homes,
the secretary general for the Var region, Olivier de Mazieres told
AFP.

Helicopters had already airlifted some people to safety, he added.

Three people were killed in the town of Draguignan and a woman in Luc.
Her body was left to float in the water raging through the town as
rescue workers deemed the currents too strong to attempt a recovery.

The other victims died in Arcs, Muy and Roquebrune-sur-Argens, the
secretary general for the Var region, the sub-prefect of Draguignan,
Corinne Orzechowski, told AFP. Another eight people were missing, she
added."

http://news.google.com/news/search?p...=floods+france

*What's stuck and how can it be shifted?

Kate, the situation is blocked and I expect it to stay this way most of the
summer as indicated in my summer climatefest.

When the plug is pulled there will be earthquakes in one place after
another.

Well more accurately: "reports of earthquakes in one place after
another".

France and the continent can
expect a wetter than normal summer with plenty of thunderstorms.

What actually happens is more like the behaviour of the Saros. It
appears to have moved west of the last longitudes. Or not, as the case
may be.

(Astrometry is too far above me.)

Stay at home tourism? in the UK will be good this year, especially in the west like
Devon/Cornwall, Pembrokeshire, the Isle of Man and W Scotland.

WTF?

Here we are just on the Dordogne, right in the middle between the Auvergne
and the coast, and it's horrible, cold, wet, nasty little cold breeze, and
no respite in the offing for the rest of the week. *It's usually really
nice this time of year and sometimes really, really hot. There have been
flash floods and disastrous storms all over the southern half of France in
this week.

2010/06/16

6.2 M. 03:58 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 M. 03:56 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
5.1 M. 03:38 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 M. 03:34 OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
7.0 M. 03:16 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.4 M. 03:06 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

Weatherlore Numero Uno:
Big storm : Big quake.

*What's stuck and how can it be shifted?

The high over Greenland dropped and recurved slightly and became
registered on the North Atlantic charts as cyclonic. Whether or not it
really was I can't say. I very much doubt anything the CRU has on it
will be enlightening.

The area is pauce in on-the-ground weather stations and any heat
sensitivity in satellites watching the area is open to inconclusivity.

Ditto for old records from almost everywhere else. There is no side by
side IR band rain-cheques.

As stated previously, to much acclaim from the faithful:
When it rains, it pours in different places with different effects.

That's what happened in Europe and North America.

"I" don't have any idea if the cap will be refitted but until the day
"we" do, we just have to weather the wear and tears. When I find out,
you may be sure I shall tell you about it.
I wouldn't be so certain

I saw a blip in the NEIC list yesterday but thought it too small to
comment on. Besides I only come here when I have a lot to say.
uk.sci.weather is full of climatologists and sci.geo.earthquakes is
full of dimmos.

One thing in all this is certain. Previous records will not show the
cause and effect. The data reveals "effect" but because of the steps
in between, is too far off the cause to be on the mark.

On 15/06/10 22:55, Adam Lea wrote:
On 15/06/2010 18:17, Will Hand wrote:
Kate, the situation is blocked and I expect it to stay this way most of
the summer as indicated in my summer forecast. France and the continent
can expect a wetter than normal summer with plenty of thunderstorms.

Stay-cation in the UK will be good this year, especially in the west
like Devon/Cornwall, Pembrokeshire, the Isle of Man and W Scotland.

Will
--


Will, have you any idea why the weather has been blocked for so long,
like, since mid December? The NAO has been persistently negative since
then, the longest such period that I could find in the historical
records (that was a quick scan, not a totally rigorous analysis).
November last year was very wet with a positive NAO and in the second
week of December it was like a switch was flipped and it suddenly
flipped to cold and dry, and has been ever since.

Also, why is it the blocks seem to preferentially form to our west,
regularly putting the UK under a northerly airstream, thus providing us
with the mediocre temperatures that have plagued us throughout the spring?

If it carries on much longer, we'll have to re-write the textbooks. Our
prevailing winds are no longer from the south west, they are from the
north! :-)

The SST-anomaly cold pool south of the Grand Banks is responsible.
During the winter, it was also backed up by the cold Namias area in the
NE Pacific but this has now turned warm. There have been signs of some
shrinking of the Atlantic pool but I said it was weakening a month or
two back and it strengthened again. In my experience, it is unusual for
this area to persist for more than a year so it will probably be gone by
the end of the Autumn.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK.
E-mail: newsman AT scarlet HYPHEN jade DOT com

On 16 June, 06:31, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 15/06/10 22:55, Adam Lea wrote:





On 15/06/2010 18:17, Will Hand wrote:
Kate, the situation is blocked and I expect it to stay this way most of
the summer as indicated in my summer forecast. France and the continent
can expect a wetter than normal summer with plenty of thunderstorms.

Stay-cation in the UK will be good this year, especially in the west
like Devon/Cornwall, Pembrokeshire, the Isle of Man and W Scotland.

Will
--

Will, have you any idea why the weather has been blocked for so long,
like, since mid December? The NAO has been persistently negative since
then, the longest such period that I could find in the historical
records (that was a quick scan, not a totally rigorous analysis).
November last year was very wet with a positive NAO and in the second
week of December it was like a switch was flipped and it suddenly
flipped to cold and dry, and has been ever since.

Also, why is it the blocks seem to preferentially form to our west,
regularly putting the UK under a northerly airstream, thus providing us
with the mediocre temperatures that have plagued us throughout the spring?

If it carries on much longer, we'll have to re-write the textbooks. Our
prevailing winds are no longer from the south west, they are from the
north! :-)

The SST-anomaly cold pool south of the Grand Banks is responsible.
During the winter, it was also backed up by the cold Namias area in the
NE Pacific but this has now turned warm. There have been signs of some
shrinking of the Atlantic pool but I said it was weakening a month or
two back and it strengthened again. In my experience, it is unusual for
this area to persist for more than a year so it will probably be gone by
the end of the Autumn.

When there was more surface cold water in the Arctic than there was
subsurface cold water there the egress was such that the really cold
stuff left via the Davis Straight in winter.

Things are different now that the ice in the arctic is shallow. But it
isn't easy to say what the differences are as the topology can now
change more readily with each day's weather in the Arctic.

The outflow from the Denamrk Straight should also have changed
radically. In a standard negative North Atlantic Anomaly (which grade
of anomaly being Weatherlawyer's in this case) tropical and
subtropical storms tend to run South to North crossing waht used to be
the Azores high area and goingstraight into the Arctic.

No one has mooted a cause for such events as far as I know. (Of course
if one wished to wait forever one might enquire about it from the CRU.
And let them play silly buggers with the reply.)

Or one might take the BBC's line that large aquatic mammals will save
the earth by ****ting on it.

Speaking of the devil, has anyone noticed that they don't see to force
their idiots out in the rain these days? I even caught a glimpse of
the North Atlantic chart this morning. Still got divots in front of it
of course.

I suppose I am asking too much.. to... no I am not even hoping..

On 15 June, 19:24, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*Lawrence Jenkins writes:

Stay-cation Will is that like time of at Christmas Holly-day?

I think the word is an import from America. It seems to have become
fashionable over the last six months or so.
--
John Hall

* * * * * * "I don't even butter my bread; I consider that cooking."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Katherine Cebrian

It's become a common misconception that the SW (& the UK in general)
is almost totally reliant on 'home' visitors. In fact 25% of my
visitiors are foreign (and that excludes Wales & Scotland) and I'm
hardly convenient for a major airport (Exeter 100 miles)

Graham
Penzance

(Not that I've nothing against the English, and as Will indicates, the
weather here is just superb at the moment, http://www.minack.com/min02_7ref30.htm
the surf certainly is not)

http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/ - English spoken

On Tue, 15 Jun 2010, Robin Nicholson wrote
On Tue, 15 Jun 2010 13:04:34 +0100, "flybywire" wrote:

we suffered three months of horrendous weather in Portugal from Jan to march
I found opening another bottle or two of red was most helpful

cheers

Mike

'Red' from Portugal, a break from horrendous weather in favour of a
horrendous hangover!!?


Can't speak for red Portuguese wine, though our Portuguese roofer gave
us a bottle of excellent aperitif white port (yes, it was a very
expensive job). However, we are in the Dordogne here, Bergerac is just
down the road, finding really good red wine is certainly not a problem,
and we are doing it ample justice, with a dram or so of Laphroaig when
it's particularly bad.

Today it has been raining for about seven hours non-stop, quite heavily
at times. The other side of the valley is invisible and the rivers are
in spate again. It is truly foul and I haven't brought enough woollies!


--
Kate B

PS 'elvira' is spamtrapped - please reply to 'elviraspam' at cockaigne dot org dot uk if you
want to reply personally

On Wed, 16 Jun 2010 13:54:43 +0200, Kate Brown wrote:

Today it has been raining for about seven hours non-stop, quite heavily
at times. The other side of the valley is invisible and the rivers are
in spate again. It is truly foul and I haven't brought enough woollies!

We had a similar 10 days in the Dordogne (Sarlat) in June 2002 --
horrible! Then 27C and beautiful the day we left (typical!). Wine was
excellent though.

On 15/06/2010 13:04, flybywire wrote:
we suffered three months of horrendous weather in Portugal from Jan to
march I found opening another bottle or two of red was most helpful

cheers

Mike

We arrived in Malaga on 21 December to enjoy Christmas in the Sun as in
previous years; we had booked until 6 January, however, the weather was
so foul we came home early on 31 Dec.
The wine helped during the intervening period :-)
Don

On Jun 16, 6:30*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

you may be sure I shall tell you about it.
I wouldn't be so certain

I saw a blip in the NEIC list yesterday but thought it too small to
comment on. Besides I only come here when I have a lot to say.
uk.sci.weather is full of climatologists and sci.geo.earthquakes is
full of dimmos.

Just think what I'd be able to accomplish with access to local records
and current readings, were I an Italian seismologist and responsible
to the courts of the land for the safety of the populace.

But I live in Staffordshire and am at peace with large government
agencies regularly murdering the general public.

And (off on another tangent) will welcome the arrival of those new
light sabres, as the general populace here are bound to be avid anti
police camera men.

On Jun 16, 6:31*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 15/06/10 22:55, Adam Lea wrote:



On 15/06/2010 18:17, Will Hand wrote:
Kate, the situation is blocked and I expect it to stay this way most of
the summer as indicated in my summer forecast. France and the continent
can expect a wetter than normal summer with plenty of thunderstorms.

Stay-cation in the UK will be good this year, especially in the west
like Devon/Cornwall, Pembrokeshire, the Isle of Man and W Scotland.

Will
--

Will, have you any idea why the weather has been blocked for so long,
like, since mid December? The NAO has been persistently negative since
then, the longest such period that I could find in the historical
records (that was a quick scan, not a totally rigorous analysis).
November last year was very wet with a positive NAO and in the second
week of December it was like a switch was flipped and it suddenly
flipped to cold and dry, and has been ever since.

Also, why is it the blocks seem to preferentially form to our west,
regularly putting the UK under a northerly airstream, thus providing us
with the mediocre temperatures that have plagued us throughout the spring?

If it carries on much longer, we'll have to re-write the textbooks. Our
prevailing winds are no longer from the south west, they are from the
north! :-)

The SST-anomaly cold pool south of the Grand Banks is responsible.
During the winter, it was also backed up by the cold Namias area in the
NE Pacific but this has now turned warm. There have been signs of some
shrinking of the Atlantic pool but I said it was weakening a month or
two back and it strengthened again. In my experience, it is unusual for
this area to persist for more than a year so it will probably be gone by
the end of the Autumn.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK.
E-mail: newsman AT scarlet HYPHEN jade DOT com

The exceptionally wet weather in the South of France is is product of
this continued pattern as low pressure keeps to our South and we are
blocked. The west and northwest have had some beautiful weather
lately, I just hope us in the SE will get some soon as it's been
pretty chilly most of the time for my liking.

Some 24 hour rainfalls from 6am this morning:

Le Luc(80m) 286.2mm
Hyeres(2m) 171.5mm
Leucate 101.4mm
St-Auban-Sur-Durance(457m) 95.1mm
Oviedo(335m) Spain 60.2mm
Cap Cepet(126m) 59.0mm
Toulon(24m) 57.1mm
Salon(59m) 56.0mm

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

On Jun 16, 9:56*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On Jun 16, 6:31*am, Graham P Davis wrote:


The exceptionally wet weather in the South of France is is product of
this continued pattern as low pressure keeps to our South and we are
blocked. The west and northwest have had some beautiful weather
lately, I just hope us in the SE will get some soon as it's been
pretty chilly most of the time for my liking.

Some 24 hour rainfalls from 6am this morning:

Le Luc(80m) * * * * * * * * * * 286.2mm
Hyeres(2m) * * * * * * * * * * *171.5mm
Leucate * * * * * * * * * * * * 101.4mm
St-Auban-Sur-Durance(457m) * * *95.1mm
Oviedo(335m) Spain * * * * * * *60.2mm
Cap Cepet(126m) * * * * * * * * 59.0mm
Toulon(24m) * * * * * * * * * * 57.1mm
Salon(59m) * * * * * * * * * * *56.0mm

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Next load just heading into the South of France...
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...ar/france.html

Keith (Southend)