That's enough for me. ECM 12z leads me to being 75%+ confident that a
change will have occurred in the European outlook at T240 and that
will have had a knock-on effect on the UK. Hence the following
forecast at 10 days.

At T240, on 22nd November, a European high will have developed. This
will have the effect of diverting the Atlantic weather around its
northern limb, producing a mild, perhaps very mild, flow over the UK
with it's origins to the SW. Depressions will be embedded in this
flow, as will transient ridges of high pressure, but the dominent
theme will be higher pressure to our south controlling the flow across
the UK. As a proxy for this European high, pressure in Berne will be
1020mb.

The MetO forecast implies a similar scenario, I think, but there's
nothing explicit.

"UK Outlook for Tuesday 17 Nov 2009 to Thursday 26 Nov 2009:
The general weather pattern is likely to remain unsettled throughout
the forecast period with the wind blowing from a southwesterly quarter
for most of the time. We can expect showers or longer spells of rain
across the United Kingdom, the rain occasionally becoming heavy and
prolonged, especially in northern and western areas, and the showers
turning wintry at times on the higher of the Scottish mountains.
*There will also be some drier, brighter spells, the best of these
most likely to develop in southern and eastern areas, especially
during the second week. It looks likely to be windy at times with
gales near coasts and over hills, especially in the northwest, and the
temperature will most likely be close to or slightly above the
November average*.

Updated: 1222 on Thu 12 Nov 2009"

Dawlish wrote:
That's enough for me. ECM 12z leads me to being 75%+ confident that a
change will have occurred in the European outlook at T240 and that
will have had a knock-on effect on the UK. Hence the following
forecast at 10 days.


Enter the Bartlett High ;-)
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On Nov 12, 8:54*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
That's enough for me. ECM 12z leads me to being 75%+ confident that a
change will have occurred in the European outlook at T240 and that
will have had a knock-on effect on the UK. Hence the following
forecast at 10 days.

Enter the Bartlett High ;-)
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Still there this morning. Still 9 days to go, but that European high
can really take some shifting, should it become established.

On Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:52:46 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Nov 12, 8:54*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
That's enough for me. ECM 12z leads me to being 75%+ confident that a
change will have occurred in the European outlook at T240 and that
will have had a knock-on effect on the UK. Hence the following
forecast at 10 days.

Enter the Bartlett High ;-)
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Still there this morning. Still 9 days to go, but that European high
can really take some shifting, should it become established.

Interesting. Carry on posting your opinions/forecasts. I read whatever
whenever - mostly Will and you, and then make my own mind up!

R

somewhat quiet in Dorset at the mo

"Robin Nicholson" wrote in
message ...
On Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:52:46 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Nov 12, 8:54 pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
That's enough for me. ECM 12z leads me to being 75%+ confident that a
change will have occurred in the European outlook at T240 and that
will have had a knock-on effect on the UK. Hence the following
forecast at 10 days.

Enter the Bartlett High ;-)
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Still there this morning. Still 9 days to go, but that European high
can really take some shifting, should it become established.

Interesting. Carry on posting your opinions/forecasts. I read whatever
whenever - mostly Will and you, and then make my own mind up!

R

somewhat quiet in Dorset at the mo

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
On Nov 12, 8:54*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
That's enough for me. ECM 12z leads me to being 75%+ confident that a
change will have occurred in the European outlook at T240 and that
will have had a knock-on effect on the UK. Hence the following
forecast at 10 days.

Enter the Bartlett High ;-)

Still there this morning. Still 9 days to go, but that European high
can really take some shifting, should it become established.

I'd much rather have it now than a month or two later, though. I reckon
that November is a very poor guide to the rest of the winter, whereas a
European high established in December or January is much less likely to
shift.
--
John Hall "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"

On Nov 13, 9:45*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
On Nov 12, 8:54*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
That's enough for me. ECM 12z leads me to being 75%+ confident that a
change will have occurred in the European outlook at T240 and that
will have had a knock-on effect on the UK. Hence the following
forecast at 10 days.

Enter the Bartlett High ;-)

Still there this morning. Still 9 days to go, but that European high
can really take some shifting, should it become established.

I'd much rather have it now than a month or two later, though. I reckon
that November is a very poor guide to the rest of the winter, whereas a
European high established in December or January is much less likely to
shift.
--
John Hall *"[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
* * * * * * like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
* * * * * * its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"

Both yourself John and Will are completely correct. European highs can
skedaddle quickly and a strong jet works wonders for that - though
there have been instances of them hanging around for weeks and
producing exactly the dull, foggy drizzle and 9C that you talk about
Will. I also agree with you John, that November is a poor guide to the
winter weather. Then again, I think any month, including the one we
are in at the time is a poor guide until 10 days out - even then, it
is only on occasions when I, or anyone, can be 75% sure. Actiually, I
feel that most times 8 days is not a good guide to the rest of the
winter's weather!

PS Will - "Eurotrash" high! I get the distinct feeling you wouldn't
like that 10 day forecast to be correct - and then the charts still
show a European high at 10 days on the 22nd! - not much change from my
forecast scenario on the 06z gfs, but there's a long way to go and if
it is any help, I feel there's a 20-25% chance of that outcome not
occurring, ATM, IMO.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
That's enough for me. ECM 12z leads me to being 75%+ confident that a
change will have occurred in the European outlook at T240 and that
will have had a knock-on effect on the UK. Hence the following
forecast at 10 days.

At T240, on 22nd November, a European high will have developed. This
will have the effect of diverting the Atlantic weather around its
northern limb, producing a mild, perhaps very mild, flow over the UK
with it's origins to the SW. Depressions will be embedded in this
flow, as will transient ridges of high pressure, but the dominent
theme will be higher pressure to our south controlling the flow across
the UK. As a proxy for this European high, pressure in Berne will be
1020mb.

The MetO forecast implies a similar scenario, I think, but there's
nothing explicit.

"UK Outlook for Tuesday 17 Nov 2009 to Thursday 26 Nov 2009:
The general weather pattern is likely to remain unsettled throughout
the forecast period with the wind blowing from a southwesterly quarter
for most of the time. We can expect showers or longer spells of rain
across the United Kingdom, the rain occasionally becoming heavy and
prolonged, especially in northern and western areas, and the showers
turning wintry at times on the higher of the Scottish mountains.
*There will also be some drier, brighter spells, the best of these
most likely to develop in southern and eastern areas, especially
during the second week. It looks likely to be windy at times with
gales near coasts and over hills, especially in the northwest, and the
temperature will most likely be close to or slightly above the
November average*.

Updated: 1222 on Thu 12 Nov 2009"

Boring and depressing that's all I can say. No I mean that's all I can
say!!!

Let's hope your forecasting attempts is as good as your manners.

On Nov 12, 9:19*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...





That's enough for me. ECM 12z leads me to being 75%+ confident that a
change will have occurred in the European outlook at T240 and that
will have had a knock-on effect on the UK. Hence the following
forecast at 10 days.

At T240, on 22nd November, a European high will have developed. This
will have the effect of diverting the Atlantic weather around its
northern limb, producing a mild, perhaps very mild, flow over the UK
with it's origins to the SW. Depressions will be embedded in this
flow, as will transient ridges of high pressure, but the dominent
theme will be higher pressure to our south controlling the flow across
the UK. As a proxy for this European high, pressure in Berne will be
1020mb.

The MetO forecast implies a similar scenario, I think, but there's
nothing explicit.

"UK Outlook for Tuesday 17 Nov 2009 to Thursday 26 Nov 2009:
The general weather pattern is likely to remain unsettled throughout
the forecast period with the wind blowing from a southwesterly quarter
for most of the time. We can expect showers or longer spells of rain
across the United Kingdom, the rain occasionally becoming heavy and
prolonged, especially in northern and western areas, and the showers
turning wintry at times on the higher of the Scottish mountains.
*There will also be some drier, brighter spells, the best of these
most likely to develop in southern and eastern areas, especially
during the second week. It looks likely to be windy at times with
gales near coasts and over hills, especially in the northwest, and the
temperature will most likely be close to or slightly above the
November average*.

Updated: 1222 on Thu 12 Nov 2009"

Boring and depressing that's all I can say. No I mean that's all I can
say!!!

Let's hope your forecasting attempts is as good as your manners.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

My manners are impeccable, which perhaps, vindicates my forecasting at
10 days. How's your email etiquette?

I'm not at all sure you are qualified to comment on the content of
this thread, Lawrence. If you'd like to discuss my forecast, or the
ins and outs of forecasting at 10 days, please do.

On 12 Nov, 21:46, Dawlish wrote:

I'm not at all sure you are qualified to comment on the content of
this thread, Lawrence.

This is usenet: people can say what they want...!

Richard