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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0534,
23 Jan 06. The runs still show a largely settled and chilly end to the week, with high pressure over or close to the UK. The GFS ensembles, as over the past few days, are a mess of spaghetti as early as T+96, reflecting the different possibilities depending on where the high pressure goes - the most likely outcome is for it to sink southwards or even southwestwards, but as ever more runs are needed. ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif The UK lies under a high, with light winds for all. There's little change at T+144, but by T+168 the centre of the high sinks southwards, allowing NW'lies to affect most areas (with SW'lies for Northern Ireland). MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif MetO also shows a high over the UK at T+120, followed by the high moving SW'wards at T+144. By then winds are westerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland, with northerlies elsewhere. GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png A NW'ly flow covers the UK, due to a large high to the west. The winds become northerlies at T+144 as the high rotates, followed by SW'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland at T+168 due to the high toppling over the UK. Winds are NE'lies over England and Wales. GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian run shows a mixture of southerlies, SE'lies and easterlies across the UK, due to a high to the NE. The high sinks southwards and builds at T+144, bringing light winds across England and Wales; Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under southerlies. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...230000_120.gif The UK lies under northerlies with a high to the west. The high sinks southwards at T+144, bringing further northerlies for all. By T+168 the high ridges NE'wards, allowing easterlies and ENE'lies to affect the UK. JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif The Japanese run shows high pressure over Ireland, leading to a mixture of northerlies and NE'lies for most of the UK. The high sinks SSW'wards at T+144, with NW'lies and northerlies as a result. NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif NOGAPS shows NE'lies for England and Wales, with high pressure centred over Scotland. Winds are SW'lies for much of Scotland and Northern Ireland. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean run shows high pressure to the NW with northerlies and NE'lies as a result. |
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