Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0534,
23 Jan 06.
The runs still show a largely settled and chilly end to the week, with high
pressure over or close to the UK. The GFS ensembles, as over the past few
days, are a mess of spaghetti as early as T+96, reflecting the different
possibilities depending on where the high pressure goes - the most likely
outcome is for it to sink southwards or even southwestwards, but as ever
more runs are needed.
ECMWF:
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
The UK lies under a high, with light winds for all. There's little change at
T+144, but by T+168 the centre of the high sinks southwards, allowing
NW'lies to affect most areas (with SW'lies for Northern Ireland).
MetO:
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
MetO also shows a high over the UK at T+120, followed by the high moving
SW'wards at T+144. By then winds are westerlies for Scotland and Northern
Ireland, with northerlies elsewhere.
GFS:
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
A NW'ly flow covers the UK, due to a large high to the west. The winds
become northerlies at T+144 as the high rotates, followed by SW'lies for
Scotland and Northern Ireland at T+168 due to the high toppling over the UK.
Winds are NE'lies over England and Wales.
GEM:
http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows a mixture of southerlies, SE'lies and easterlies
across the UK, due to a high to the NE. The high sinks southwards and builds
at T+144, bringing light winds across England and Wales; Scotland and
Northern Ireland lie under southerlies.
GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...230000_120.gif
The UK lies under northerlies with a high to the west. The high sinks
southwards at T+144, bringing further northerlies for all. By T+168 the high
ridges NE'wards, allowing easterlies and ENE'lies to affect the UK.
JMA:
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows high pressure over Ireland, leading to a mixture of
northerlies and NE'lies for most of the UK. The high sinks SSW'wards at
T+144, with NW'lies and northerlies as a result.
NOGAPS:
http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
NOGAPS shows NE'lies for England and Wales, with high pressure centred over
Scotland. Winds are SW'lies for much of Scotland and Northern Ireland.
KMA:
http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run shows high pressure to the NW with northerlies and NE'lies as
a result.