Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0538, 22 Jan 06.

The runs continue to show colder weather on the way for most areas for the
end of the week. High pressure looks like settling near or over the UK,
bringing cold clear days and frosty nights for most. There's likely to be
more in the way of cloud for northern and western areas of Scotland and also
for Northern Ireland at times, leading to higher temperatures there. The ECM
ensembles show excellent agreement on the cold lasting into next weekend,
with the GFS again showing a massive scatter on its ensembles.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
A large high lies to the north, bringing easterlies and ENE'lies over much
of the UK. Winds are SE'lies over Northern Ireland and western Scotland,
followed by NE'lies for most at T+144 as the high moves SW'wards. T+168 sees
the high continue sinking SW'wards with NNE'lies for much of the UK as a
result.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
MetO shows high pressure over the UK with light winds for all. The high
moves SW'wards at T+144, leading to northerlies for most areas.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
As with MetO, the UK lies under an area of high pressure. The high moves
slowly southwards and declines slightly at T+144, with further light winds
for all. The upper ridge retrogresses at T+168 and a new high builds to the
NW, bringing a mixture of northerlies and NW'lies for the UK.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows a mixture of southerlies, SE'lies and easterlies
across the UK, due to a high to the NE. The high sinks southwards and builds
at T+144, bringing light winds across England and Wales; Scotland and
Northern Ireland lie under southerlies.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...220000_120.gif
The UK lies under a high which extends NE'watds to southern Scandinavia.
Winds are light for most as a result. The high builds over the UK at T+144,
introducing SW'lies to Northern Ireland and Scotland with NE'lies for much
of England.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows high pressure centred to the NE, resulting in
easterlies across most parts of the UK. The high sinks SW'wards at T+144,
leading to NE'lies for England and Wales with SW'lies elsewhere.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
NOGAPS shows NE'lies for all, due to a high to the north. There's little
change at T+144.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run shows a large high to the NE with easterlies and ENE'lies
across the UK.

In message , Darren Prescott
writes
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0538, 22 Jan 06.

The runs continue to show colder weather on the way for most areas for the
end of the week. High pressure looks like settling near or over the UK,
bringing cold clear days and frosty nights for most. There's likely to be
more in the way of cloud for northern and western areas of Scotland and also
for Northern Ireland at times, leading to higher temperatures there. The ECM
ensembles show excellent agreement on the cold lasting into next weekend,
with the GFS again showing a massive scatter on its ensembles.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
A large high lies to the north, bringing easterlies and ENE'lies over much
of the UK. Winds are SE'lies over Northern Ireland and western Scotland,
followed by NE'lies for most at T+144 as the high moves SW'wards. T+168 sees
the high continue sinking SW'wards with NNE'lies for much of the UK as a
result.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
MetO shows high pressure over the UK with light winds for all. The high
moves SW'wards at T+144, leading to northerlies for most areas.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
As with MetO, the UK lies under an area of high pressure. The high moves
slowly southwards and declines slightly at T+144, with further light winds
for all. The upper ridge retrogresses at T+168 and a new high builds to the
NW, bringing a mixture of northerlies and NW'lies for the UK.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows a mixture of southerlies, SE'lies and easterlies
across the UK, due to a high to the NE. The high sinks southwards and builds
at T+144, bringing light winds across England and Wales; Scotland and
Northern Ireland lie under southerlies.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...220000_120.gif
The UK lies under a high which extends NE'watds to southern Scandinavia.
Winds are light for most as a result. The high builds over the UK at T+144,
introducing SW'lies to Northern Ireland and Scotland with NE'lies for much
of England.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows high pressure centred to the NE, resulting in
easterlies across most parts of the UK. The high sinks SW'wards at T+144,
leading to NE'lies for England and Wales with SW'lies elsewhere.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
NOGAPS shows NE'lies for all, due to a high to the north. There's little
change at T+144.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run shows a large high to the NE with easterlies and ENE'lies
across the UK.
Thanks again Darren but you must admit the forecast 850MB temperatures
are all markedly higher than they were 24 hours ago. Generally an
anticyclone northerly after T+72 with only the southeast expected to get
any wintry pptn. We shall see - there is always plenty of scope still
in this situation for models to revert to something colder again.
Seeing as I am out of date, can you explain why all models seem to
change at the same time. In the past three runs nearly all have swung
simultaneously from cold northeasterlies to rather cold northerlies?
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather.
400FT AMSL 25Miles southwest of the Wash

. Seeing as I am out of date, can you explain why all models seem to
change at the same time. In the past three runs nearly all have swung
simultaneously from cold northeasterlies to rather cold northerlies?
Cheers
Paul

There does seem to be basic flaw in the models' programming. I could be
completely wrong but it always seems that the mean ensemble line is a
straight average of all of the possible outcomes with no weighting against
outcomes that may be meteorologically feasible but experience has shown that
they rarely happen in the last twenty years. This current set of models is a
typical example. The trend towards the warmer solution than the previous
mean seems more common than a move towards a colder than mean solution
,which weighting could correct.

Dave