. Seeing as I am out of date, can you explain why all models seem to
change at the same time. In the past three runs nearly all have swung
simultaneously from cold northeasterlies to rather cold northerlies?
Cheers
Paul

There does seem to be basic flaw in the models' programming. I could be
completely wrong but it always seems that the mean ensemble line is a
straight average of all of the possible outcomes with no weighting against
outcomes that may be meteorologically feasible but experience has shown that
they rarely happen in the last twenty years. This current set of models is a
typical example. The trend towards the warmer solution than the previous
mean seems more common than a move towards a colder than mean solution
,which weighting could correct.

Dave