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Old January 14th 06, 09:29 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Severe cold on a knife-edge


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Well confidence is still very low for the outlook but continued very cold 492
DAM air continues to be advected south into Russia during next few days. By
midweek the behaviour of the developing low off the eastern seaboard of the
States is crucial. if that deepens and turns left more than predicted (as it
could easily do) and thrust warm air up the west side of Greenland then the
resulting cold plunge further east will cause the upper trough to disrupt to the
west of the UK allowing the very cold air to the east to advect westwards. A
potentially very cold severe spell is still on the cards for NW Europe with the
UK on the western edge. I emphasise that it is only a *possibility* at (in my
view) 30% risk, but in light of the extreme cold that sub 510 DAM air can bring
at this time of year it must be taken on board. Please do not go OTT with this
post, I'm only expressing what I see on the charts as an experienced
meteorologist. Also it is worth watching out for Tuesday as it might have a few
surprises with the latest GFS showing cold 528 DAM air wrapped round the
disrupting trough threatening snow for hills in the south. Fascinating stuff
ATM.

Will.
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" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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