On Sat, 14 Jan 2006 13:30:31 -0000, cupra wrote:

Anyone know a good seasoned wood supplier in West Somerset?!

No, but there is a good pile near Haytor apparently. B-) Not that
far...

--
Cheers
Dave. pam is missing e-mail

I'm with Keith on this one. Views are currently being influenced by local
conditions. Will is having a great time with snow, sun plus the advantage of
living in beautiful place! In these parts it has been one of the most dull,
boring, sunless, rainless, severe frost less, snowless winters I can
remember. Plus the "promise" of a severe cold spell from several quarters
has always been "watch next week" which so far has never come.

Dave, S.Essex.
"Alan Gardiner" wrote in message
...

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Will Hand writes:
A
potentially very cold severe spell is still on the cards for NW Europe
with the
UK on the western edge. I emphasise that it is only a *possibility* at
(in
my
view) 30% risk, but in light of the extreme cold that sub 510 DAM air
can
bring
at this time of year it must be taken on board.
snip

The 06Z GFS ensemble for London has 2 members that seem to show this
happening for London, but of course they are very much in the minority:

http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
--
John Hall

I think that the most probable outcome in the SE is that the cold air will
encroach from the continent from time to time in the next few weeks but
it
will be very much at the western edge as Will has stated. The European
anticyclone seems very persistent but in general is not in a position
which
will permit the very cold air to reach the UK.

The charts have been hinting at this for several days now.

Alan

Dave Liquorice wrote:
On Sat, 14 Jan 2006 13:30:31 -0000, cupra wrote:

Anyone know a good seasoned wood supplier in West Somerset?!

No, but there is a good pile near Haytor apparently. B-) Not that
far...

lol

Will - watch out for a silver Alfa with a tarp in the boot

Joe Hunt wrote:

850mb temperatures as low as MS30degC for Budapest and Munich on some runs.
That is very cold air and not too far from the UK as Will is pointing out. A
knife-edge situation.


Hm, interesting. Joe, any chance of you sticking your neck out and
hazarding a guesstimate to conditions in Munich in mid-Feb please?
Looking at last year's data, it seems that slightly cold (MS02C day /
MS09C night) was the best description. I'll need to know if SWMBO will
need Damarts for our trip out there!

Thanks

G.
--
Graham J. Platt
graham (a) bowhunter (d) demon (d) co (d) uk
TRA #10112 L3
UKRA #1264 L3 RSO

On Sat, 14 Jan 2006 11:32:37 +0000, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

Ir's a long way from the UK Joe, it may just as well be on another
planet. I'm fed up getting excited about the weather that everyone else
gets. Grump!

Keith, I get excited about the GFS beyond 7 days when it shows mild
weather over the UK. We all know how much the long range charts
change by the time they arrive, so I assume that very cold 10 day
outlooks will become mild on the day - and vice versa. This saves me
getting all excited about GFS fantasy cold spells and if a mild
ouitlook does reverse, it's a pleasant surprise for me.

But the timescale mentioned by Will for this cold plunge to our East
is short enough for me to be interested in it. If it goes slightly
wrong and advects further West than expected, that too will be a noice
surprise for me. I don't *expect* it to happen but then again, I
didn't *expect* Man City to win 3-1 today...

Dave

"Graham" wrote in message
...
Joe Hunt wrote:

850mb temperatures as low as MS30degC for Budapest and Munich on some
runs. That is very cold air and not too far from the UK as Will is
pointing out. A knife-edge situation.


Hm, interesting. Joe, any chance of you sticking your neck out and
hazarding a guesstimate to conditions in Munich in mid-Feb please? Looking
at last year's data, it seems that slightly cold (MS02C day / MS09C night)
was the best description. I'll need to know if SWMBO will need Damarts for
our trip out there!

Thanks

G.


Funny you should specifically mention Munich, as I was discussing their
current weather with a friend the other day. A huge surface inversion has
set itself up, trapping moisture beneath it giving some very dull and
bitterly cold days of late -

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soun...&STNN=Muenchen

A 1000-500hPa thickness of 538.4dm and a surface temperature of MS7.7degC,
but a 1300m slice of the atmosphere between 1000m and 2300m asl has a
positive air temperature albeit considerably dry. I imagine a drive from
Munich to the Bavarian Alps, driving above the Sc sheet would be mighty
impressive. The METAR reports from Munich Airport show it has been cold and
dreary for some time -

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/wyow...M&STATION=EDDM

As for mid-February in Munich, I would only advise taking note of
climatological averages as models cannot predict site-specific forecasts
with any accuracy. So an average maximum of 3degC and an average minimum of
MS4degC, bearing in mind February is normally Munich's driest month. I am
sure you can think of something more fun for your wife to wear to keep warm
!

HTH, Joe

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 14 Jan 2006 11:32:37 +0000, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

Ir's a long way from the UK Joe, it may just as well be on another
planet. I'm fed up getting excited about the weather that everyone else
gets. Grump!

Keith, I get excited about the GFS beyond 7 days when it shows mild
weather over the UK. We all know how much the long range charts
change by the time they arrive, so I assume that very cold 10 day
outlooks will become mild on the day - and vice versa. This saves me
getting all excited about GFS fantasy cold spells and if a mild
ouitlook does reverse, it's a pleasant surprise for me.

But the timescale mentioned by Will for this cold plunge to our East
is short enough for me to be interested in it. If it goes slightly
wrong and advects further West than expected, that too will be a noice
surprise for me. I don't *expect* it to happen but then again, I
didn't *expect* Man City to win 3-1 today...

Dave

Neither did I, ruined what was a fantastic day :-(
Thanks for that Dave, not :-)

Where did I put that bottle of brandy and the razor blade. 3-1 unbelievable, Man
City - unbelievable.
At least it wasn't at the Theatre of Dreams, that would have been too much to
bear.

Will (now an abject jibbering wreck)
--

" cupra" wrote in message
...
Dave Liquorice wrote:
On Sat, 14 Jan 2006 13:30:31 -0000, cupra wrote:

Anyone know a good seasoned wood supplier in West Somerset?!

No, but there is a good pile near Haytor apparently. B-) Not that
far...

lol

Will - watch out for a silver Alfa with a tarp in the boot



LOL, my pile is going down slowly.
May go down even quicker in a week or two grin.

Will.
--

Will Hand wrote:
" cupra" wrote in message
...
Dave Liquorice wrote:
On Sat, 14 Jan 2006 13:30:31 -0000, cupra wrote:

Anyone know a good seasoned wood supplier in West Somerset?!

No, but there is a good pile near Haytor apparently. B-) Not that
far...

lol

Will - watch out for a silver Alfa with a tarp in the boot



LOL, my pile is going down slowly.
May go down even quicker in a week or two grin.

Will.

2 weeks is when my kitchen wall gets knocked through - thus making cold
weather a certainty!

Entire message snipped.
Will, please don't take this too personally, but I just cannot take this
post seriously.
It just ain't gonna happen.
This and the midweek forecast update recently are doing you credibility no
good whatsoever.
I look forward to normal service being resumed.

--
David Mitchell, 70m amsl, Langtoft, East Riding of Yorkshire.