================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Well confidence is still very low for the outlook but continued very cold 492
DAM air continues to be advected south into Russia during next few days. By
midweek the behaviour of the developing low off the eastern seaboard of the
States is crucial. if that deepens and turns left more than predicted (as it
could easily do) and thrust warm air up the west side of Greenland then the
resulting cold plunge further east will cause the upper trough to disrupt to the
west of the UK allowing the very cold air to the east to advect westwards. A
potentially very cold severe spell is still on the cards for NW Europe with the
UK on the western edge. I emphasise that it is only a *possibility* at (in my
view) 30% risk, but in light of the extreme cold that sub 510 DAM air can bring
at this time of year it must be taken on board. Please do not go OTT with this
post, I'm only expressing what I see on the charts as an experienced
meteorologist. Also it is worth watching out for Tuesday as it might have a few
surprises with the latest GFS showing cold 528 DAM air wrapped round the
disrupting trough threatening snow for hills in the south. Fascinating stuff
ATM.

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will Hand wrote:
================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Well confidence is still very low for the outlook but continued very cold 492
DAM air continues to be advected south into Russia during next few days. By
midweek the behaviour of the developing low off the eastern seaboard of the
States is crucial. if that deepens and turns left more than predicted (as it
could easily do) and thrust warm air up the west side of Greenland then the
resulting cold plunge further east will cause the upper trough to disrupt to the
west of the UK allowing the very cold air to the east to advect westwards. A
potentially very cold severe spell is still on the cards for NW Europe with the
UK on the western edge. I emphasise that it is only a *possibility* at (in my
view) 30% risk, but in light of the extreme cold that sub 510 DAM air can bring
at this time of year it must be taken on board. Please do not go OTT with this
post, I'm only expressing what I see on the charts as an experienced
meteorologist. Also it is worth watching out for Tuesday as it might have a few
surprises with the latest GFS showing cold 528 DAM air wrapped round the
disrupting trough threatening snow for hills in the south. Fascinating stuff
ATM.

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Will, thanks for adding some interest to an otherwise very uninteresting
outlook, even GFS two weeks away isn't interesting anymore.

Now where's my knitting grin

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...

Will, thanks for adding some interest to an otherwise very uninteresting
outlook, even GFS two weeks away isn't interesting anymore.

Now where's my knitting grin

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

Keith,

You must be joking ! The GFS operational run shows some serious cold
advection into the continent with what looks to be an extreme event maybe
for parts of eastern Europe. This scenario has been remarkably consistent in
the last few runs -
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn2162.html

850mb temperatures as low as MS30degC for Budapest and Munich on some runs.
That is very cold air and not too far from the UK as Will is pointing out. A
knife-edge situation.

Joe

Will Hand wrote:
================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================
Well confidence is still very low for the outlook but continued very
cold 492
DAM air continues to be advected south into Russia during next few days. By
midweek the behaviour of the developing low off the eastern seaboard of the
States is crucial. if that deepens and turns left more than predicted (as it
could easily do) and thrust warm air up the west side of Greenland then the
resulting cold plunge further east will cause the upper trough to
disrupt to the
west of the UK allowing the very cold air to the east to advect westwards. A
potentially very cold severe spell is still on the cards for NW
Europe with the
UK on the western edge. I emphasise that it is only a *possibility* at (in my
view) 30% risk, but in light of the extreme cold that sub 510 DAM air
can bring
at this time of year it must be taken on board. Please do not go OTT
with this
post, I'm only expressing what I see on the charts as an experienced
meteorologist. Also it is worth watching out for Tuesday as it might
have a few
surprises with the latest GFS showing cold 528 DAM air wrapped round the
disrupting trough threatening snow for hills in the south. Fascinating stuff
ATM.

What do you think will happen around Thursday? I've got a gig in Kendal
and ravishing though the Lake District undoubtedly is in the snow, we've
got to get costumes and instruments there and back via Virgin!


--
Kate B
London

PS 'elvira' is spamtrapped - please reply to 'elviraspam' at cockaigne if you want
to reply personally

Joe Hunt wrote:
"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Will, thanks for adding some interest to an otherwise very uninteresting
outlook, even GFS two weeks away isn't interesting anymore.

Now where's my knitting grin

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

Keith,

You must be joking ! The GFS operational run shows some serious cold
advection into the continent with what looks to be an extreme event maybe
for parts of eastern Europe. This scenario has been remarkably consistent in
the last few runs -
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn2162.html

850mb temperatures as low as MS30degC for Budapest and Munich on some runs.
That is very cold air and not too far from the UK as Will is pointing out. A
knife-edge situation.

Joe



Ir's a long way from the UK Joe, it may just as well be on another
planet. I'm fed up getting excited about the weather that everyone else
gets. Grump!

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

"Kate Brown" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:
================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================
Well confidence is still very low for the outlook but continued very
cold 492
DAM air continues to be advected south into Russia during next few days. By
midweek the behaviour of the developing low off the eastern seaboard of the
States is crucial. if that deepens and turns left more than predicted (as
it
could easily do) and thrust warm air up the west side of Greenland then the
resulting cold plunge further east will cause the upper trough to
disrupt to the
west of the UK allowing the very cold air to the east to advect westwards.
A
potentially very cold severe spell is still on the cards for NW
Europe with the
UK on the western edge. I emphasise that it is only a *possibility* at (in
my
view) 30% risk, but in light of the extreme cold that sub 510 DAM air
can bring
at this time of year it must be taken on board. Please do not go OTT
with this
post, I'm only expressing what I see on the charts as an experienced
meteorologist. Also it is worth watching out for Tuesday as it might
have a few
surprises with the latest GFS showing cold 528 DAM air wrapped round the
disrupting trough threatening snow for hills in the south. Fascinating
stuff
ATM.

What do you think will happen around Thursday? I've got a gig in Kendal
and ravishing though the Lake District undoubtedly is in the snow, we've
got to get costumes and instruments there and back via Virgin!



Kate, things should have warmed out by thursday, so hopefully fairly mild for
you and no problems.
Tuesday is a potential snow situation for the hills, ie above 250m asl.
Max temperatures on Dartmoor for example, circa 1-3 deg C depending on altitude.

Will.
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Well confidence is still very low for the outlook but continued very cold
492
DAM air continues to be advected south into Russia during next few days.
By
midweek the behaviour of the developing low off the eastern seaboard of
the
States is crucial. if that deepens and turns left more than predicted (as
it
could easily do) and thrust warm air up the west side of Greenland then
the
resulting cold plunge further east will cause the upper trough to disrupt
to the
west of the UK allowing the very cold air to the east to advect westwards.
A
potentially very cold severe spell is still on the cards for NW Europe
with the
UK on the western edge. I emphasise that it is only a *possibility* at (in
my
view) 30% risk, but in light of the extreme cold that sub 510 DAM air can
bring
at this time of year it must be taken on board. Please do not go OTT with
this
post, I'm only expressing what I see on the charts as an experienced
meteorologist. Also it is worth watching out for Tuesday as it might have
a few
surprises with the latest GFS showing cold 528 DAM air wrapped round the
disrupting trough threatening snow for hills in the south. Fascinating
stuff
ATM.

Anyone know a good seasoned wood supplier in West Somerset?!

In article ,
Will Hand writes:
A
potentially very cold severe spell is still on the cards for NW Europe with the
UK on the western edge. I emphasise that it is only a *possibility* at (in my
view) 30% risk, but in light of the extreme cold that sub 510 DAM air can bring
at this time of year it must be taken on board.
snip

The 06Z GFS ensemble for London has 2 members that seem to show this
happening for London, but of course they are very much in the minority:

http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Will Hand writes:
A
potentially very cold severe spell is still on the cards for NW Europe
with the
UK on the western edge. I emphasise that it is only a *possibility* at (in
my
view) 30% risk, but in light of the extreme cold that sub 510 DAM air can
bring
at this time of year it must be taken on board.
snip

The 06Z GFS ensemble for London has 2 members that seem to show this
happening for London, but of course they are very much in the minority:

http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
--
John Hall

I think that the most probable outcome in the SE is that the cold air will
encroach from the continent from time to time in the next few weeks but it
will be very much at the western edge as Will has stated. The European
anticyclone seems very persistent but in general is not in a position which
will permit the very cold air to reach the UK.

The charts have been hinting at this for several days now.

Alan

In article , dated Sat, 14 Jan
2006, Will Hand wrote

"Kate Brown" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:
================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================
Well confidence is still very low for the outlook but continued very
cold 492
DAM air continues to be advected south into Russia during next few
days. By
midweek the behaviour of the developing low off the eastern
seaboard of the
States is crucial. if that deepens and turns left more than predicted (as
it
could easily do) and thrust warm air up the west side of Greenland
then the
resulting cold plunge further east will cause the upper trough to
disrupt to the
west of the UK allowing the very cold air to the east to advect westwards.
A
potentially very cold severe spell is still on the cards for NW
Europe with the
UK on the western edge. I emphasise that it is only a *possibility* at (in
my
view) 30% risk, but in light of the extreme cold that sub 510 DAM air
can bring
at this time of year it must be taken on board. Please do not go OTT
with this
post, I'm only expressing what I see on the charts as an experienced
meteorologist. Also it is worth watching out for Tuesday as it might
have a few
surprises with the latest GFS showing cold 528 DAM air wrapped round the
disrupting trough threatening snow for hills in the south. Fascinating
stuff
ATM.

What do you think will happen around Thursday? I've got a gig in Kendal
and ravishing though the Lake District undoubtedly is in the snow, we've
got to get costumes and instruments there and back via Virgin!



Kate, things should have warmed out by thursday, so hopefully fairly mild for
you and no problems.
Tuesday is a potential snow situation for the hills, ie above 250m asl.
Max temperatures on Dartmoor for example, circa 1-3 deg C depending on
altitude.


Thanks! then with any luck there will be some photogenic stuff on the
tops and the roads and rails will be clear. What a relief...

--
Kate B

PS 'elvira' is spamtrapped - please reply to 'elviraspam' at cockaigne if you want
to reply personally