Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Boxing Day. Issued
0546, 22/12/05.

In summary, the models are all over the place today. ECM has stuck firm with
its easterly scenario for the past few days but some of the others
(especially GFS) have been showing large changes between each run. The
models are having a tough time handling height rises to our north and NE and
hence the associated surface patterns.

The only certain thing is that high pressure will be close to the UK by
Boxing Day but beyond that anything from SW'lies to NE'lies are possible
depending on where the high centres itself. GFS, MetO and 12z ECM all back
NE'lies with potential snow for SE areas of England especially, but given
the way the models have flip-flopped so much of late I'm not sure I trust
them!

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure is centred over northern Sweden with a strong ridge SSW'wards
over Norway, the North Sea and the UK. Winds are light NE'lies over SE
England and easterlies cover southern England and southern Wales. Elsewhere
winds are SE'lies. The ridge declines slightly at T+144, allowing NE'lies to
affect much of England and Wales.By T+168 pressure builds strongly over the
UK with light winds for most.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
The UK lies under NE'lies due to a high extending from the Western Isles to
southern Norway. The high builds and moves SW'wards at T+144, introducing
westerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds remain
NE'lies.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
The GFS shows a large high covering Scandinavia and a ridge extending
SW'wards over Scotland. Winds are southerlies for Scotland, SE'lies for
Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK lies under NE'lies. The ridge builds
and sinks slowly southwards at T+144, maintaining NE'lies over England and
Wales. Elsewhere winds are SW'lies, followed by more of the same at T+168 as
the ridge continues to build over the UK.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian output shows a large high over Ireland and northerlies for much
of the UK. The high builds at T+144 with NW'lies for all, followed by
NNW'lies at T+168 with the high moving a few miles westwards.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...220000_120.gif
NW'lies cover the UK with high pressure to the SW. The NW'ly winds
strengthen at T+144 as low pressure moves into Scandinavia.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows high pressure for England and Wales with westerlies
for Northern Ireland and Scotland. The high moves SE'wards and declines at
T+144, allowing southerlies and SE'lies to affect the UK.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
NOGAPS also shows high pressure over the UK, this time bringing SW'lies to
Scotland and Northern Ireland. At T+144 the high sinks southwards, bringing
westerlies for all.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run shows a ridge over England and Wales with SW'lies elsewhere.

LOL ... Thanks Darren,

I don't think you've ever trusted them though have you ? Maybe you'd be
better off just asking the wolves at the moment.[]

Another thing that seems likely is that the UK is on coures for a very dry
December.

--------------------------------------------------
SNIPPED
'.... but given the way the models have flip-flopped so much of late I'm not
sure I trust them!'
--------------------------------------------------
"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Boxing Day. Issued
0546, 22/12/05.

In summary, the models are all over the place today. ECM has stuck firm
with
its easterly scenario for the past few days but some of the others
(especially GFS) have been showing large changes between each run. The
models are having a tough time handling height rises to our north and NE
and
hence the associated surface patterns.

The only certain thing is that high pressure will be close to the UK by
Boxing Day but beyond that anything from SW'lies to NE'lies are possible
depending on where the high centres itself. GFS, MetO and 12z ECM all back
NE'lies with potential snow for SE areas of England especially, but given
the way the models have flip-flopped so much of late I'm not sure I trust
them!

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure is centred over northern Sweden with a strong ridge
SSW'wards
over Norway, the North Sea and the UK. Winds are light NE'lies over SE
England and easterlies cover southern England and southern Wales.
Elsewhere
winds are SE'lies. The ridge declines slightly at T+144, allowing NE'lies
to
affect much of England and Wales.By T+168 pressure builds strongly over
the
UK with light winds for most.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
The UK lies under NE'lies due to a high extending from the Western Isles
to
southern Norway. The high builds and moves SW'wards at T+144, introducing
westerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds remain
NE'lies.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
The GFS shows a large high covering Scandinavia and a ridge extending
SW'wards over Scotland. Winds are southerlies for Scotland, SE'lies for
Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK lies under NE'lies. The ridge
builds
and sinks slowly southwards at T+144, maintaining NE'lies over England and
Wales. Elsewhere winds are SW'lies, followed by more of the same at T+168
as
the ridge continues to build over the UK.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian output shows a large high over Ireland and northerlies for
much
of the UK. The high builds at T+144 with NW'lies for all, followed by
NNW'lies at T+168 with the high moving a few miles westwards.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...220000_120.gif
NW'lies cover the UK with high pressure to the SW. The NW'ly winds
strengthen at T+144 as low pressure moves into Scandinavia.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows high pressure for England and Wales with westerlies
for Northern Ireland and Scotland. The high moves SE'wards and declines at
T+144, allowing southerlies and SE'lies to affect the UK.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
NOGAPS also shows high pressure over the UK, this time bringing SW'lies to
Scotland and Northern Ireland. At T+144 the high sinks southwards,
bringing
westerlies for all.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run shows a ridge over England and Wales with SW'lies
elsewhere.

"newsposter" wrote in message
...
LOL ... Thanks Darren,

I don't think you've ever trusted them though have you ? Maybe you'd be
better off just asking the wolves at the moment.[]

Another thing that seems likely is that the UK is on coures for a very dry
December.


Which could well mean a cold dry January.

On Thu, 22 Dec 2005 09:56:12 -0000, "Gavin Staples"
wrote:


Which could well mean a cold dry January.


Or a mild wet stormy 7-10 day period with a dry quiet slot either
side!!
R

I don't think you've ever trusted them though have you ?
If they're all singing from the same sheet (as is often the case in zonal
situations) then I trust them. At the moment... well, I've never known
anything like it. Even the usually reliable MetO is flopping around like a
fish out of water and to crown it all the 6z GFS ensembles are in unison
regarding an easterly next week. I can just imagine the "fun" all this is
causing for the pros!

Maybe you'd be
better off just asking the wolves at the moment.[]
Their forecast was for a colder winter than recent ones judging by the fact
they grew their winter coats earlier this year - hmm, maybe I should have
emailed the tabloids, I'm sure they'd have loved a story like that...

Another thing that seems likely is that the UK is on coures for a very dry
December.
The lack of rain in my part of the world (SE England) is a real problem.
Southern Water has applied to refill Bewl reservoir (at its lowest level
ever recorded) with water from the Medway. The trouble is the Medway is far
below its usual level so for the time being they're not allowed to use it.
Things'll get quite tricky next summer if this keeps up...

Darren Prescott wrote:

Their forecast was for a colder winter than recent ones judging by the fact
they grew their winter coats earlier this year - hmm, maybe I should have
emailed the tabloids, I'm sure they'd have loved a story like that...

Wolf in a sheep's clothing? :-)


--
Howard Neil