Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Boxing Day. Issued
0546, 22/12/05.

In summary, the models are all over the place today. ECM has stuck firm with
its easterly scenario for the past few days but some of the others
(especially GFS) have been showing large changes between each run. The
models are having a tough time handling height rises to our north and NE and
hence the associated surface patterns.

The only certain thing is that high pressure will be close to the UK by
Boxing Day but beyond that anything from SW'lies to NE'lies are possible
depending on where the high centres itself. GFS, MetO and 12z ECM all back
NE'lies with potential snow for SE areas of England especially, but given
the way the models have flip-flopped so much of late I'm not sure I trust
them!

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure is centred over northern Sweden with a strong ridge SSW'wards
over Norway, the North Sea and the UK. Winds are light NE'lies over SE
England and easterlies cover southern England and southern Wales. Elsewhere
winds are SE'lies. The ridge declines slightly at T+144, allowing NE'lies to
affect much of England and Wales.By T+168 pressure builds strongly over the
UK with light winds for most.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
The UK lies under NE'lies due to a high extending from the Western Isles to
southern Norway. The high builds and moves SW'wards at T+144, introducing
westerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds remain
NE'lies.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
The GFS shows a large high covering Scandinavia and a ridge extending
SW'wards over Scotland. Winds are southerlies for Scotland, SE'lies for
Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK lies under NE'lies. The ridge builds
and sinks slowly southwards at T+144, maintaining NE'lies over England and
Wales. Elsewhere winds are SW'lies, followed by more of the same at T+168 as
the ridge continues to build over the UK.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian output shows a large high over Ireland and northerlies for much
of the UK. The high builds at T+144 with NW'lies for all, followed by
NNW'lies at T+168 with the high moving a few miles westwards.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...220000_120.gif
NW'lies cover the UK with high pressure to the SW. The NW'ly winds
strengthen at T+144 as low pressure moves into Scandinavia.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows high pressure for England and Wales with westerlies
for Northern Ireland and Scotland. The high moves SE'wards and declines at
T+144, allowing southerlies and SE'lies to affect the UK.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
NOGAPS also shows high pressure over the UK, this time bringing SW'lies to
Scotland and Northern Ireland. At T+144 the high sinks southwards, bringing
westerlies for all.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run shows a ridge over England and Wales with SW'lies elsewhere.