I don't think you've ever trusted them though have you ?
If they're all singing from the same sheet (as is often the case in zonal
situations) then I trust them. At the moment... well, I've never known
anything like it. Even the usually reliable MetO is flopping around like a
fish out of water and to crown it all the 6z GFS ensembles are in unison
regarding an easterly next week. I can just imagine the "fun" all this is
causing for the pros!

Maybe you'd be
better off just asking the wolves at the moment.[]
Their forecast was for a colder winter than recent ones judging by the fact
they grew their winter coats earlier this year - hmm, maybe I should have
emailed the tabloids, I'm sure they'd have loved a story like that...

Another thing that seems likely is that the UK is on coures for a very dry
December.
The lack of rain in my part of the world (SE England) is a real problem.
Southern Water has applied to refill Bewl reservoir (at its lowest level
ever recorded) with water from the Medway. The trouble is the Medway is far
below its usual level so for the time being they're not allowed to use it.
Things'll get quite tricky next summer if this keeps up...