http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html
Not trend tables, but a list of extreme years, including 2004 but this
year is still going so cannot be included.

Named storms (Atlantic) totals
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ns04.jpg
The five year average is clearly exceptional at the moment, but the
record is only 60 years long, and the repeating cycle is 70 years (as
claimed) which is why it cannot be taken as uniquely exceptional for a
few more years.

Major Hurricanes (Atlantic) totals
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/mh05.jpg
This time it should be clear that the current high is not exceptional -
a more pronounced high occurred at the end of the 40s.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ace05.JPG
Note that this is an index of intensity over time - duration, not just
intensity, which is variable in duration and a poor measure of a
storm's energy. However, it fails to take into account the storm size,
which also affects total energy, so may not agree with Emmanuel's
values.

Again, the graph shows that the current period is similar to the early
50s.

As is regularly said, global warming needs a global trend:
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/anthro2.htm
Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity
(Revised September, 2005)

I would urge you all to read this last article - it's by a real
scientist who doesn't go around hurling insults because someone dared
to contradict them.

Hoggle the cheat date who deep throats oil propaganda wrote:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html
Not trend tables, but a list of extreme years, including 2004 but this
year is still going so cannot be included.

This year exists. It counts and I counted it up to Wilma Cat 5. Since
Wilma can't go any higher, that item is completed already = 3 Cat 5
storms in one year, a record never found elsewhere in the record total.

Cheap oil whore Hoggle lies by omission. Or tries to. I did the math
for 1995-2004, and that ten-year stretch was head and shoulders over
any earlier ten-year stretch. So his lies fail him.


Named storms (Atlantic) totals
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ns04.jpg
The five year average is clearly exceptional at the moment, but the
record is only 60 years long, and the repeating cycle is 70 years (as
claimed) which is why it cannot be taken as uniquely exceptional for a
few more years.

There is NO 70 YEAR CYCLE. This a recurring oil propaganda bogus
statement. A CYCLE means "happens more than once" and is connected in
some way by underlying forces. The events of this period have their own
causal forces and are different from the last big surge in storms,
which were not 70 years ago, but began rising coincident to WWII
furious oil consumption and CO2 spew. The lag in effects was several
years, with the 1950s having the second most violent episode of weather
on record, but far below current violence levels.

Major Hurricanes (Atlantic) totals
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/mh05.jpg
This time it should be clear that the current high is not exceptional -
a more pronounced high occurred at the end of the 40s.

There is no 'more pronounced highs'.

Here's the data -- COUNT THEM YOURSELF.
For brevity sake, abbreviations are used:
TS = Tropical Storm
C1 = Hurricane Category 1, C2 = Hurricane Category 2
C3, C4, C5 = Major Hurricanes Category 3, 4 & 5 respectively.

1940 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=1
1941 : TS=2, C1=2, C3=2
1942 : TS=6, C1=1, C2=2, C3=1
1943 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=2, C3=1, C4=1
1944 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=1, C3=2, C4=1
1945 : TS=6, C2=2, C3=1, C4=2
1946 : TS=3, C1=1, C2=1, C4=1
1947 : TS=4, C1=2, C2=1, C3=1, C5=1
1948 : TS=3, C1=2, C3=2, C4=2
1949 : TS=6, C1=1, C2=3, C3=1, C4=2
1950 : TS=2, C2=2, C3=5, C4=2, C5=1
1951 : TS=2, C1=2, C2=1, C3=3, C4=1, C5=1
1952 : TS=1, C1=1, C2=2, C3=2, C4=1
1953 : TS=8, C1=1, C2=1, C3=3, C4=1
1954 : TS=3, C1=3, C2=3, C3=1, C4=1
1955 : TS=3, C1=1, C2=2, C3=4, C4=1, C5=1
1956 : TS=5, C1=1, C3=1, C4=1
1957 : TS=5, C1=1, C4=2
1958 : TS=3, C1=2, C3=3, C4=1, C5=1
1959 : TS=4, C1=5, C3=1, C4=1
1960 : TS=3, C1=2, C5=2
1961 : TS=3, C1=1, C3=3, C4=2, C5=2
1962 : TS=2, C2=2, C3=1
1963 : TS=2, C1=2, C2=3, C3=1, C4=1
1964 : TS=6, C3=3, C4=3
1965 : TS=1, C1=2, C2=1, C4=1
1966 : TS=4, C1=3, C3=2, C4=1
1967 : TS=2, C1=4, C2=1, C5=1
1968 : TS=4, C1=4,
1969 : TS=6, C1=5, C2=2, C3=4, C5=1
1970 : TS=5, C1=3, C3=2
1971 : TS=7, C1=4, C2=1, C5=1
1972 : TS=4, C1=2, C2=1
1973 : TS=4, C1=3, C3=1
1974 : TS=7, C1=1, C2=1, C3=1, C4=1
1975 : TS=3, C1=1, C2=2, C3=2, C4=1
1976 : TS=4, C1=2, C2=2, C3=2
1977 : TS=1, C1=4, C5=1
1978 : TS=7, C1=2, C2=1, C4=2
1979 : TS=4, C1=3, C4=1, C5=1
1980 : TS=2, C1=5, C2=2, C3=1, C5=1
1981 : TS=5, C1=3, C2=1, C3=2, C4=1
1982 : TS=4, C1=1, C4=1
1983 : TS=1, C1=2, C3=1
1984 : TS=8, C1=3, C2=1, C4=1
1985 : TS=4, C1=4, C3=2, C4=1
1986 : TS=2, C1=3, C2=1
1987 : TS=5, C1=1, C3=1
1988 : TS=7, C1=2, C4=2, C5=1
1989 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=2, C4=1, C5=1
1990 : TS=6, C1=5, C2=2, C3=1
1991 : TS=4, C1=1, C2=1, C3=1, C4=1
1992 : TS=3, C1=1, C2=2, C5=1
1993 : TS=4, C1=2, C2=1, C3=1
1994 : TS=4, C1=2, C2=1
1995 : TS=8, C1=4, C2=2, C3=2, C4=3
1996 : TS=4, C1=3, C3=4, C4=2
1997 : TS=5, C1=1, C3=1
1998 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=4, C3=1, C4=1, C5=1
1999 : TS=4, C2=3, C4=5
2000 : TS=7, C1=5, C3=1, C4=2
2001 : TS=6, C1=5, C3=2, C4=2
2002 : TS=8, C1=1, C2=1, C3=1, C4=1
2003 : TS=9, C1=3, C2=1, C3=2, C5=1
2004 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=1, C3=2, C4=3, C5=1
2005 : TS=9, C1=6, C3=1, C4=2, C5=3

Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ace05.JPG
Note that this is an index of intensity over time - duration, not just
intensity, which is variable in duration and a poor measure of a
storm's energy. However, it fails to take into account the storm size,
which also affects total energy, so may not agree with Emmanuel's
values.

EMANUEL measured DURATION specifically: Hurricane days.

The latest report from NOAA on WILMA says:
.... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ...

That makes the hurricane 120 miles wide, and the tropical storm halo
460 miles wide. This compares with every cat five recently, including
Isabel, Ivan, Katrina and Rita. Cat 5 canes are not wee punks. They are
big and nasty as a rule. Storms like Jeanne and Tammy at Tropical Storm
or cat 1 are bigger but not nearly as powerful. WILMA expends the total
energy every 4 hours that Jeanne id in 24 hours, making it six times
more expendature of energy per 24 hour day.


Again, the graph shows that the current period is similar to the early
50s.

COUNT THEM YOURSELF:
1950 : TS=2, C2=2, C3=5, C4=2, C5=1
1951 : TS=2, C1=2, C2=1, C3=3, C4=1, C5=1
1952 : TS=1, C1=1, C2=2, C3=2, C4=1
1953 : TS=8, C1=1, C2=1, C3=3, C4=1
1954 : TS=3, C1=3, C2=3, C3=1, C4=1
1955 : TS=3, C1=1, C2=2, C3=4, C4=1, C5=1
1956 : TS=5, C1=1, C3=1, C4=1
1957 : TS=5, C1=1, C4=2
1958 : TS=3, C1=2, C3=3, C4=1, C5=1
1959 : TS=4, C1=5, C3=1, C4=1

1996 : TS=4, C1=3, C3=4, C4=2
1997 : TS=5, C1=1, C3=1
1998 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=4, C3=1, C4=1, C5=1
1999 : TS=4, C2=3, C4=5
2000 : TS=7, C1=5, C3=1, C4=2
2001 : TS=6, C1=5, C3=2, C4=2
2002 : TS=8, C1=1, C2=1, C3=1, C4=1
2003 : TS=9, C1=3, C2=1, C3=2, C5=1
2004 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=1, C3=2, C4=3, C5=1
2005 : TS=9, C1=6, C3=1, C4=2, C5=3


Take your oil propaganda and go deep throat yourself. And clean up that
soggy Blue Dress you cheap slut.

you really should see a doctor about that tourettes, you know.

raylopez99 wrote:
Thanks for that clarification Hoggle.

I will then revise my memory bank to these facts:

1. Hurricanes _have_ increased, if you include all Atlantic storms, in
both numbers and intensity.

2. The link between hurricanes increasing and AGW (Anthro. GW) is
tenuous to non-existent.

RL

But stop the presses! See here this study:


http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/anthro2.htm
Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity
(Revised September, 2005)

1.) Q: Is global warming causing more hurricanes?
A: No. The global, annual frequency of tropical cyclones
(the generic, meteorological term for the storm that is called a
tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic region) is about 90, plus
or minus 10. There is no indication whatsoever of a long-term trend
in this number.
2.) Q: But I've noticed that there seem to have been lots more
hurricanes, beginning around 1995.
A: You probably live in North America, Central America, or
Europe and are talking about hurricanes in the North Atlantic. (It's
important to remember that only 11% of all hurricanes occur in the
Atlantic, the rest are in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.) There has
been a large upswing in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes,
beginning in 1995. This is owing to natural cycles in North Atlantic
climate that we have observed for many decades and, to the best of our
ability to discern, has nothing obvious to do with global warming.
This upswing was predicted at least 10 years in advance by
meteorologists familiar with the 150 year record of Atlantic hurricanes.

raylopez99 wrote:
raylopez99 wrote:
Thanks for that clarification Hoggle.

I will then revise my memory bank to these facts:

1. Hurricanes _have_ increased, if you include all Atlantic storms, in
both numbers and intensity.

2. The link between hurricanes increasing and AGW (Anthro. GW) is
tenuous to non-existent.

RL

But stop the presses! See here this study:


http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/anthro2.htm
Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity
(Revised September, 2005)

1.) Q: Is global warming causing more hurricanes?
A: No. The global, annual frequency of tropical cyclones
(the generic, meteorological term for the storm that is called a
tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic region) is about 90, plus
or minus 10. There is no indication whatsoever of a long-term trend
in this number.

Statistical frequency 1851-2005 (155 years):
8.6 storms per year average, 86.6 storms per ten year-sequence.
Statistical frequency 1996-2005 (10 years):
13.1 storms per year average, 131 storms per ten year-sequence.
1996 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=0, C3=4, C4=2
1997 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=0, C3=1
1998 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=4, C3=1, C4=1, C5=1
1999 : TS=4, C1=0, C2=3, C3=0, C4=5
2000 : TS=7, C1=5, C2=0, C3=1, C4=2
2001 : TS=6, C1=5, C2=0, C3=2, C4=2
2002 : TS=8, C1=1, C2=1, C3=1, C4=1
2003 : TS=9, C1=3, C2=1, C3=2, C4=0, C5=1
2004 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=1, C3=2, C4=3, C5=1
2005 : TS=9, C1=6, C3=1, C4=2, C5=3
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Totals TS= 4+5+4+4+7+6+8+9+5+9= 61 Tropical Storms
Totals C1= 3+1+3+0+5+5+1+3+1+6= 28 Hurricanes Category 1
Totals C2= 0+0+4+3+0+0+1+1+1+2= 12 Hurricanes Category 2
Totals C3= 4+1+1+0+1+2+1+2+2+2= 16 Major Hurricanes Category 3
Totals C4= 2+0+1+5+2+2+1+0+3+3= 19 Major Hurricanes Category 4
Totals C5= 0+0+0+0+0+0+0+1+1+5= 5 Major Hurricanes Category 5

Stats for 1996-2005 ten-year stretch compared to 1851-2005 averages per
10-years.
77% more tropical storms than average.
43% more Hurricanes Category 1 than average.
10% less Hurricanes Category 2 than average.
48% more Major Hurricanes Category 3 than average.
211% more Major Hurricanes Category 4 than average.
194% more Major Hurricanes Category 5 than average.

In article .com,
"raylopez99" wrote:
Go here for a quick chart that clearly shows the number of hurricanes
has decreased since either 1941 or even earlier.

A no-brainer: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

Intensity is another issue, but numbers have gone down.

RL

Ray, what's the average no. of hurricanes per year? Ans. 6. How many have
there been this year? Ans. 21

In article .com,
"raylopez99" wrote:
raylopez99 wrote:
Thanks for that clarification Hoggle.

I will then revise my memory bank to these facts:

1. Hurricanes _have_ increased, if you include all Atlantic storms, in
both numbers and intensity.

2. The link between hurricanes increasing and AGW (Anthro. GW) is
tenuous to non-existent.

RL

But stop the presses! See here this study:


http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/anthro2.htm
Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity
(Revised September, 2005)

1.) Q: Is global warming causing more hurricanes?
A: No. The global, annual frequency of tropical cyclones
(the generic, meteorological term for the storm that is called a
tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic region) is about 90, plus
or minus 10. There is no indication whatsoever of a long-term trend
in this number.
2.) Q: But I've noticed that there seem to have been lots more
hurricanes, beginning around 1995.
A: You probably live in North America, Central America, or
Europe and are talking about hurricanes in the North Atlantic. (It's
important to remember that only 11% of all hurricanes occur in the
Atlantic, the rest are in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.) There has
been a large upswing in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes,
beginning in 1995. This is owing to natural cycles in North Atlantic
climate that we have observed for many decades and, to the best of our
ability to discern, has nothing obvious to do with global warming.
This upswing was predicted at least 10 years in advance by
meteorologists familiar with the 150 year record of Atlantic hurricanes.


The paper published in Science showed that the intensity is increasing, not
the actual number.

In article ,
Scott wrote:
Lloyd Parker wrote:
In article .com,
"raylopez99" wrote:

Go here for a quick chart that clearly shows the number of hurricanes
has decreased since either 1941 or even earlier.

A no-brainer: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

Intensity is another issue, but numbers have gone down.

RL


Ray, what's the average no. of hurricanes per year? Ans. 6. How many have
there been this year? Ans. 21


If you're talking hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, Wilma
is the 12th hurricane this year, tying the record from 1969.

Scott

Sorry, I was comparing named storms to hurricanes. The correct is:

"average (based on data from 1944-1996) is approximately 10 named storms and 6
hurricanes, including 2-3 major hurricanes."

We've had 21 named storms do far this year, the most since 1933 (which also
had 21), over twice the average. 2004 had 15 named storms, 50% above the
average.

Lloyd Parker wrote:
In article .com,
"raylopez99" wrote:

Go here for a quick chart that clearly shows the number of hurricanes
has decreased since either 1941 or even earlier.

A no-brainer: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

Intensity is another issue, but numbers have gone down.

RL


Ray, what's the average no. of hurricanes per year? Ans. 6. How many have
there been this year? Ans. 21


If you're talking hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, Wilma
is the 12th hurricane this year, tying the record from 1969.

Scott

If we talk about named storms:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ns04.jpg
The average is 9.7, and the previous record was in 1995, at 19 (there
were 18 in 1969)

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E10.html
provides a breakdown of averages and least/most years.

Naming was not used consistently before WWII, but the record for
tropical storms in the Atlantic is held by 1933 (21) and therefore this
season will either match or exceed that record, when it is completed.