raylopez99 wrote:
raylopez99 wrote:
Thanks for that clarification Hoggle.
I will then revise my memory bank to these facts:
1. Hurricanes _have_ increased, if you include all Atlantic storms, in
both numbers and intensity.
2. The link between hurricanes increasing and AGW (Anthro. GW) is
tenuous to non-existent.
RL
But stop the presses! See here this study:
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/anthro2.htm
Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity
(Revised September, 2005)
1.) Q: Is global warming causing more hurricanes?
A: No. The global, annual frequency of tropical cyclones
(the generic, meteorological term for the storm that is called a
tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic region) is about 90, plus
or minus 10. There is no indication whatsoever of a long-term trend
in this number.
Statistical frequency 1851-2005 (155 years):
8.6 storms per year average, 86.6 storms per ten year-sequence.
Statistical frequency 1996-2005 (10 years):
13.1 storms per year average, 131 storms per ten year-sequence.
1996 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=0, C3=4, C4=2
1997 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=0, C3=1
1998 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=4, C3=1, C4=1, C5=1
1999 : TS=4, C1=0, C2=3, C3=0, C4=5
2000 : TS=7, C1=5, C2=0, C3=1, C4=2
2001 : TS=6, C1=5, C2=0, C3=2, C4=2
2002 : TS=8, C1=1, C2=1, C3=1, C4=1
2003 : TS=9, C1=3, C2=1, C3=2, C4=0, C5=1
2004 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=1, C3=2, C4=3, C5=1
2005 : TS=9, C1=6, C3=1, C4=2, C5=3
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Totals TS= 4+5+4+4+7+6+8+9+5+9= 61 Tropical Storms
Totals C1= 3+1+3+0+5+5+1+3+1+6= 28 Hurricanes Category 1
Totals C2= 0+0+4+3+0+0+1+1+1+2= 12 Hurricanes Category 2
Totals C3= 4+1+1+0+1+2+1+2+2+2= 16 Major Hurricanes Category 3
Totals C4= 2+0+1+5+2+2+1+0+3+3= 19 Major Hurricanes Category 4
Totals C5= 0+0+0+0+0+0+0+1+1+5= 5 Major Hurricanes Category 5
Stats for 1996-2005 ten-year stretch compared to 1851-2005 averages per
10-years.
77% more tropical storms than average.
43% more Hurricanes Category 1 than average.
10% less Hurricanes Category 2 than average.
48% more Major Hurricanes Category 3 than average.
211% more Major Hurricanes Category 4 than average.
194% more Major Hurricanes Category 5 than average.