Look at this:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...TIS.glbl_sstan
omaly.gif

...and this:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...TIS.glbl_sst.g
if


Following a recurve scenerio, as some models predict, it is actually
possible to imagine a tropical system striking the Iberian penninsula at
hurricane intensity. (It would probably have to transition to a large
eye, and maintain good forward speed to abreast of westerly shear.)

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"Mike1" wrote in message
...
|
| Look at this:
| https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...TIS.glbl_sstan
| omaly.gif
|
| ..and this:
| https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...TIS.glbl_sst.g
| if
|
|
| Following a recurve scenerio, as some models predict, it is actually
| possible to imagine a tropical system striking the Iberian penninsula at
| hurricane intensity. (It would probably have to transition to a large
| eye, and maintain good forward speed to abreast of westerly shear.)
|

Interesting scenario, especially in view of the fact that the usual cool
water "return current" down the eastern side of the Atlantic appears to be
weaker than usual or even cut off so there is more warm water than normal
offshore.
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"Yokel" now posts via a spam-trap account.
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"Yokel" wrote in message ...
"Mike1" wrote in message
...
|
| Look at this:
| https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...TIS.glbl_sstan
| omaly.gif
|
| ..and this:
| https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...TIS.glbl_sst.g
| if
|
|
| Following a recurve scenerio, as some models predict, it is actually
| possible to imagine a tropical system striking the Iberian penninsula at
| hurricane intensity. (It would probably have to transition to a large
| eye, and maintain good forward speed to abreast of westerly shear.)
|

Interesting scenario, especially in view of the fact that the usual cool
water "return current" down the eastern side of the Atlantic appears to be
weaker than usual or even cut off so there is more warm water than normal
offshore.

Latest advisory from
NOAA(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...4+shtml/162058.
shtml?) suggest that it could hit the Asorez as a 40 mph tropical
storm. In this position, I imagine, it would have the potential of
merging with an extra tropical low west of France/British Isles, pull
the extra tropical system further south and/or intensify it, and
thereby cause some interesting changes to european long term
forecasts.

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(O18-C-O16) wrote:
NOAA(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...4+shtml/162058.
shtml?) suggest that it could hit the Asorez as a 40 mph tropical storm.


The 081612 GFDL aggressively restrengthens Danielle to cat-2 at the end
of the time-frame, as she bears down on the Azores:
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/...1612-danielle0
4l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

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Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick

Mike1 wrote in message ...
(O18-C-O16) wrote:
NOAA(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...4+shtml/162058.
shtml?) suggest that it could hit the Asorez as a 40 mph tropical storm.


The 081612 GFDL aggressively restrengthens Danielle to cat-2 at the end
of the time-frame, as she bears down on the Azores:
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/...1612-danielle0
4l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Amazing, the 081706 GDLF suggest that Danielle(extratropical) is
aiming for Ireland/Wales with Cat1 winds in its center, 64 to 83
knots. Is the GDLF modell reliable at 120 hours forecasts ?

Mike1 wrote in message ...
(O18-C-O16) wrote:
NOAA(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...4+shtml/162058.
shtml?) suggest that it could hit the Asorez as a 40 mph tropical storm.


The 081612 GFDL aggressively restrengthens Danielle to cat-2 at the end
of the time-frame, as she bears down on the Azores:
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/...1612-danielle0
4l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Amazing, the 081706 GDLF suggest that Danielle(extratropical) is
aiming for Ireland/Wales with Cat1 winds in its center, 64 to 83
knots. Is the GDLF modell reliable at 120 hours forecasts ?

Mike1 wrote in message ...
(O18-C-O16) wrote:
NOAA(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...4+shtml/162058.
shtml?) suggest that it could hit the Asorez as a 40 mph tropical storm.


The 081612 GFDL aggressively restrengthens Danielle to cat-2 at the end
of the time-frame, as she bears down on the Azores:
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/...1612-danielle0
4l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Stunned and surprised, NOAA 40 knots, GFDL cat 1 to 2. Current numeric
forecast models make Danielle a "rolling dice" in the middle of the
Atlantic.
And worse, like most other tropical cyclones with the potential of
turning into a strong extratropical low, it's not exactly a benign
weather randomizer(ref, chaostheory and the butterfly effect).