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Old July 1st 19, 05:27 PM posted to comp.misc,alt.talk.weather
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Default [CM] the improved accuracy of weather forecasts

From the «hotter is generally a good guess» department:
Title: How The Advance Weather Forecast Got Good
Author:
Date: Sun, 30 Jun 2019 19:34:00 -0400
Link:
http://rss.slashdot.org/~r/Slashdot/...ecast-got-good

NPR notes today's "supercomputer-driven" weather modelling can crunch huge
amounts of data to accurately forecast the weather a week in advance --
pointing out that "a six-day weather forecast today is as good as a two-day
forecast was in the 1970s." Here's some highlights from their interview with
Andrew Blum, author of The Weather Machine: A Journey Inside the Forecast : One
of the things that's happened as the scale in the system has shifted to the
computers is that it's no longer bound by past experience. It's no longer, the
meteorologists say, "Well, this happened in the past, we can expect it to
happen again." We're more ready for these new extremes because we're not held
down by past expectations... The models are really a kind of ongoing concern.
.... They run ahead in time, and then every six hours or every 12 hours, they
compare their own forecast with the latest observations. And so the models in
reality are ... sort of dancing together, where the model makes a forecast and
it's corrected slightly by the observations that are coming in... It's
definitely run by individual nations -- but individual nations with their
systems tied together... It's a 150-year-old system of governments
collaborating with each other as a global public good... The positive example
from last month was with Cyclone Fani in India. And this was a very similar
storm to one 20 years ago, that tens of thousands of people had died. This time
around, the forecast came far enough in advance and with enough confidence that
the Indian government was able to move a million people out of the way.

[image 2][2][image 4][4][image 6][6]

Read more of this story[7] at Slashdot.
[image 8]

Links:
[1]: http://twitter.com/home?status=How+T...t.ly%2F2Lu8FKC (link)
[2]: https://a.fsdn.com/sd/twitter_icon_large.png (image)
[3]: http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u...m%3Dfacebo ok (link)
[4]: https://a.fsdn.com/sd/facebook_icon_large.png (image)
[5]: http://plus.google.com/share?url=htt...ium=googleplus (link)
[6]: https://www.gstatic.com/images/icons/gplus-16.png (image)
[7]: https://news.slashdot.org/story/19/0...tm_medium=feed (link)
[8]: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/Slash...~4/TqN1BWa02LY (image)


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