"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...

There are a lot of hints on this by the two online independent weather
forecasters Metcheck and TWO, The Weatheroutlook.com.
Despite the criticism they get which I think is a bit unfair, they do
provide a pretty good service. They are both attempting to forecast the
weather at Christmas. It makes interesting reading and one can attach
whatever significance they wish to it. It is no more, or no less accurate
than what you get on the BBC. I prefer to read what these online weather
forecasters provide to the bland and quite irritating presentations that the
BBC do provide.

No matter how they dress up their fancy websites there is no getting
away from the fact that at this range there is simply no way of pinning
down conditions to a specific day. It simply cannot be done. It may indeed
*never* be able to be done.

The best they can do is to make predictions based upon the statistical
likelihood of snow in late December. This is what they appear to have done.
We have a 60% chance in Aberdeen and a 10% chance in Cornwall.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

dave m wrote:
Any chance of an ex-Canadian living in Northampton,UK to see white
christmas this year?

snipped various

.... very much depends upon where in Canada you come from and what you
expect to see from a 'White Christmas'. If you expect the traditional
snow-covered scene, with the snow sparkling under a low-angle winter
sun, I would put the probability at 10% for any one location in the
southeastern lowlands of England (and that might be cautious for the
past 20 years or so - perhaps 5%?). If you want to accept the 'Bookies'
definition (which unfortunately is skewing public perception of this
variable), then it might be as high as 30%. As noted elsewhere, a White
Christmas really is NOT traditional for many populated areas of these
islands.

One thing I confidently predict though - the probability of an argument
in this ng (and other forums) about what the weather will be on 25th
December is 90% ;-)

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm

In article ,
Jonathan Stott writes:
dave m wrote:
Any chance of an ex-Canadian living in Northampton,UK to see white
christmas this year?

Well, the odds of it snowing given by Ladbrokes are 7/2. They have as
much knowledge as anyone I guess (i.e. none at all)!

Those seem very short odds, unless they are for the Scottish Highlands.
But of course the odds are driven by the weight of money, so probably
indicate that an unusually large number of people have been punting on a
White Christmas this year - perhaps as a result of the famous Metcheck
"forecast" of a cold winter? (Or was it TWO? I can never remember which
is which.)
--
John Hall

You can divide people into two categories:
those who divide people into two categories and those who don't

In article ,
Martin Rowley writes:
If you expect the traditional
snow-covered scene, with the snow sparkling under a low-angle winter
sun, I would put the probability at 10% for any one location in the
southeastern lowlands of England (and that might be cautious for the
past 20 years or so - perhaps 5%?).

If the sun is an essential ingredient, then in this part of lowland
Surrey the only occasion within the last 40+ years with both sun and
lying snow was 1981. If the sun can be dispensed with, then there was
lying snow in 1970 as well. There were no other occasions with a full,
or even anywhere near 50%, snow cover. Under the bookies' definition,
which is based on snow falling, there were rather more days when a few
flakes fell (but 1981 would have been excluded).
--
John Hall

You can divide people into two categories:
those who divide people into two categories and those who don't

"dave m" wrote in message
m...
Any chance of an ex-Canadian living in Northampton,UK to see white
christmas this year?

please???

The chances of an ex-Canadian seeing a white crimbo this year in Northampton
are I think exactly equal to the chances of anyone else in Northampton
seeing it (:

But seriously, if one likes to see several centimetres of snow, with the sun
shining, snow clinging to the branches of trees, and maybe a wee robin
beaking up a speck of food in the foreground ... who cares what the date is
when it happens (providing it is in winter of course ... would be a bit
scary if it happened in July).

As crimbo cards, and that awful song, predate my existence (even if not by
as much as I would wish) I cannot help but wonder which came first ... the
myth or the weather.

In my lifetime, there has been one white crimbo (at the same location as
myself) and I remember it well although it must have been about 45 years
ago. In those days we had a dog which lived in an outbuilding and I awoke
on crimbo morning to discover it had frozen to death (or died anyway then
frozen) and a parent was in the midst of burying it. The combination of
weather and date has had little appeal since.

Gianna

I've never associated Christmas with snow at any time since I got
seriously interested in the weather in about 1954, as a 11 or 12 year old.
Bloody obvious, just from a few years' observations as a teenager.

Bah, humbug!

No, it's true. I always think Christmas Day will be a dull day like
today, just as I think the M25 will be full of traffic. Why? Because it
nearly always is. Anyway, there are 364 other days when it can snow. Well,
maybe 120 or so.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Dave, If you go by 20th Century statistics it is about 14-1 against having any
snow lying on Christmas day. Personally I'd say it is probably now 20-1 against
if you take recent warming into account making snowfall on low ground in England
much rarer than it used to be.

So don't hold your breath, OTOH you may get lucky !

Nobody just nobody can forecast for Xmas day so far ahead. Some organisations
pretend they can, but really it is all guesswork as model runs will flip from
day to day due to chaos theory.

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"dave m" wrote in message
m...
Any chance of an ex-Canadian living in Northampton,UK to see white
christmas this year?

please???

"TudorHgh" wrote in message
...
I've never associated Christmas with snow at any time since I got
seriously interested in the weather in about 1954, as a 11 or 12 year old.
Bloody obvious, just from a few years' observations as a teenager.

Bah, humbug!

No, it's true. I always think Christmas Day will be a dull day like
today, just as I think the M25 will be full of traffic. Why? Because it
nearly always is. Anyway, there are 364 other days when it can snow. Well,
maybe 120 or so.

Why are we interested in a white Christmas? Well because it's *fun*,
dammit! It's only of interest because it's relatively rare. I doubt the
residents
of Toronto dream of a white Christmas.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

Will Hand wrote:

So don't hold your breath, OTOH you may get lucky !

Nobody just nobody can forecast for Xmas day so far ahead. Some organisations
pretend they can, but really it is all guesswork as model runs will flip from
day to day due to chaos theory.

Of course, you can always improve the odds by moving to higher ground. :-)


--
Howard Neil
(western end of the Brecon Beacons National Park, at 235 metres asl)

Wellll..if it cold, thats a start. Maybe even cloudy with a bit of a
wind,dare i ask?

But knowing my luck, itll be warm and sunny!

Does Ebay sell snow? lol











(TudorHgh) wrote in message ...
I've never associated Christmas with snow at any time since I got
seriously interested in the weather in about 1954, as a 11 or 12 year old.
Bloody obvious, just from a few years' observations as a teenager.

Bah, humbug!

No, it's true. I always think Christmas Day will be a dull day like
today, just as I think the M25 will be full of traffic. Why? Because it
nearly always is. Anyway, there are 364 other days when it can snow. Well,
maybe 120 or so.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.