Just wondering (no negative vibe in this comment at all) which charts form
the basis for this warning? Maybe Andrew can help?

---------------------------------------------------

Advance Weather Warning
Issued [Wednesday February 25 2004 : 9:21:00 AM]

ISSUED : 25 FEB : 09:30

Areas Affected : East Anglia, Kent, London, Southeast England, Southern
England, South Wales, Southwest England.

There is an increasing risk of snowfall in the areas above from Thursday
afternoon (2pm) to Thursday evening (7pm) as upper level winds swing to the
Northeast steering moist cold air with snow showers across many Southern
areas, accumulations of up to 5cm are possible across Eastern areas.

If you have a journey planned tomorrow afternoon in the regions mentioned
you are advised you stay informed of the latest forecasts.

Please follow all local TV & Radio warnings for more information.


--------------------------------------------------------

"Jeremy Handscomb" wrote in message
news:K9__b.945$44.397@newsfe1-win...
Just wondering (no negative vibe in this comment at all) which charts form
the basis for this warning? Maybe Andrew can help?

---------------------------------------------------



Jeremy if you check the gfs chart there is a cluster of
showers heading south through east anglia and perhaps
south east england.


http://tinyurl.co.uk/3vt5
http://tinyurl.co.uk/mywn

thing is it doesnt reach london at all!
perhaps andrew bond can clear this up.

"Jeremy Handscomb" wrote in message
news:K9__b.945$44.397@newsfe1-win...
Just wondering (no negative vibe in this comment at all) which charts form
the basis for this warning? Maybe Andrew can help?

Hi Jeremy,

At present I use a new UK 5km ETA model which is being produced for Metcheck
very kindly by friends over in the Czech Republic. I have not put it on the
site just yet purely due to the fact it is still being tested. I think HALO
is also now backing this effect up, perhaps worth taking a look at Theyr.

It was this model which was used when I forecasted the cold front moving
down from the North on Jan 28th and found it excellent with regards to
following convective development and orographic effects, you could quite
literally see the frontolysis in action in certain areas and frontogenesis
in others.. incredible!. Apologies that I can't be more specific, if you
like I can email you a couple of images from the output?

Regards

A

It was this model which was used when I forecasted the cold front moving
down from the North on Jan 28th and found it excellent with regards to
following convective development and orographic effects, you could quite
literally see the frontolysis in action in certain areas and frontogenesis
in others.. incredible!. Apologies that I can't be more specific, if you
like I can email you a couple of images from the output?

Regards

A



Andrew i noticed the met office put a warning
for south east tomorrow aswell being at 60%
this seems to tie in with your weather warning.

Also a blob of percipitation developes
on the latest gfs and runs south along the
coast line towards ea and se.

Thanks for the swift reply, Andrew. I'd like very much to see the images
that you mentioned!

Looking forward to it!

Jeremy

"Andrew Bond" wrote in message
...

"Jeremy Handscomb" wrote in message
news:K9__b.945$44.397@newsfe1-win...
Just wondering (no negative vibe in this comment at all) which charts
form
the basis for this warning? Maybe Andrew can help?

Hi Jeremy,

At present I use a new UK 5km ETA model which is being produced for
Metcheck
very kindly by friends over in the Czech Republic. I have not put it on
the
site just yet purely due to the fact it is still being tested. I think
HALO
is also now backing this effect up, perhaps worth taking a look at Theyr.

It was this model which was used when I forecasted the cold front moving
down from the North on Jan 28th and found it excellent with regards to
following convective development and orographic effects, you could quite
literally see the frontolysis in action in certain areas and frontogenesis
in others.. incredible!. Apologies that I can't be more specific, if you
like I can email you a couple of images from the output?

Regards

A

,Just wondering (no negative vibe in this comment at all) which charts form
the basis for this warning? Maybe Andrew can help?

Dunno about Metcheck,but the AFWS 45km MM5 T+48 looks interesting-
Accumulated snow
https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/public...SFCSNTT048.GIF
via
http://www.westwind.ch/?page=mm5f

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)