Any insights into the model discomfort?
A complete split in the models, GFS and Arpege have the low hanging west
of Ireland and coming over the UK 22 May, ECMWF, Germany/Canada are
still with 20 May.
To me it looks as though 19 May GFS is entraining a mid-Atlantic warm
plume and the others are not. NHC has not had its interest piqued,
although the origin of this storm was not far from the approx 26 deg
warm surface Gulf Stream finger of this SST image, passing off Cape Hatteras
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/current/daily/gif/cur_coraltemp5km_sst_large.gif


--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 17/05/2021 09:04, N_Cook wrote:
Any insights into the model discomfort?
A complete split in the models, GFS and Arpege have the low hanging west
of Ireland and coming over the UK 22 May, ECMWF, Germany/Canada are
still with 20 May.
To me it looks as though 19 May GFS is entraining a mid-Atlantic warm
plume and the others are not. NHC has not had its interest piqued,
although the origin of this storm was not far from the approx 26 deg
warm surface Gulf Stream finger of this SST image, passing off Cape
Hatteras
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/current/daily/gif/cur_coraltemp5km_sst_large.gif




Since the delayed earlier posting attempts, NHC has come aboard but not
for subtropicality it seems, Tropical Atlantic more north than 30 deg N ???

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
....ATLC GALE WARNING...
..LOW PRES N OF AREA NEAR 32N57W 1003 MB. WITHIN 30N56W TO 30N57W
TO 30N57.5W TO 31N57.5W TO 31N55W TO 30N56W SW TO W WINDS 30 TO
35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30N52W TO 28N55W TO
29N58W TO 31N60W TO 31N51W TO 30N52W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm