On 05/02/2021 14:48, dmpreece wrote:
;489331 Wrote:
On Saturday, 30 January 2021 at 14:50:46 UTC, Paul from Dawlish wrote:-
Just putting it out there that we could be looking at some serious cold
and snow into February. Some areas have already seen some, but at 10
days on the gfs and GEM; that's winter!

And then there's the T+240 ECM. Pleasantly mild, with a southerly flow.


Take your pick.-


Reality will take its pick not the individual.

Aren't all forecasts devoid of reality by definition?





Plenty of reality in the starting conditions, although its interesting
when an erroneous reading gets in and it passes through the itereations,
only to evaporate totally in the next run.
On the other hand there is the "Greenland Effect" where no models manage
to reduce a high elevation ice plateau to sea level equivalent as
anything approaching reality.

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm