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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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From altimetry data
ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_GIA_Adjust_Filter2m. txt otherwise , when working, from website aviso.altimetry.fr For the 1011 datapoints 1993 to 2020 , for when the Aviso graphic emerges of the Reference plot, gradient should be 3.42mm/year to 2 decimal places, if I've not made an error For my preferred time-span of 2003.0 to latest 2020.512835 , output to the public probably in Sept 2020. 644 datapoints, avoiding early Jason and Mount Pinatubo problems and being able to choose x=0 for year 2000. The following ranked in terms of R^2 goodness of fit r*r = 0.977796 y= 0.375292*x + 1.35 SLR to 2100= 37.9cm Exponential r*r = 0.984118 y= 2.20 -4.495443*(1 - e^(x*0.047218) ) SLR to 2100 = 5.029m (sic, not cm) Quadratic y= 2.38 + 0.158836*x + 0.009238 * (x)^2 SLR to 2100 = 1.106m Best fit as previous results, in the range 80 to 89 cm rise from 2000 to 2100 , surprisingly consistent. Indicial y=2.63+ 0.063277* (x)^1.551148 SLR to 2100 = 86.6cm History of these results, ranking by R*R, goodness of fit, for best curve type each time usually the indicial form and decreasing acceleration , using 2003 to the latest datapoint to avoid the early altimeter calibration problem and post-Pinatubo recovery SLR flattening and including the 1993 to 2003 tranche does not actually make much difference to projections. Initially melding together the separate J1,J2 and J3 plots and then since 2019 using the Aviso Reference data as the small GIA component is getting less and less significant and less and less confidence in the mission cross-over/overlap data, going in and out of the filters. SLR to year 2100 using Dec 2017 data of May2017 , J1+J2 only , 56.2cm data to 25 May 2018 to 2100 , SLR 57.1 cm data to 02 Aug 2018 to 2100 , SLR 50.5 cm Update data to 01 Sep 2018, public output 07 Dec 2018 SLR to year 2100 , 49.0 cm Update data to 01 Oct 2018, public output 18 Jan 2019 SLR to year 2100 , 50.9 cm Update data to 29 Nov 2018, public output 02 Feb 2019 SLR to year 2100 , 77.4 cm Update data to 26 June 2019, public output 07 September 2019 SLR to year 2100 , 80.2 cm Update to 25 July 2019, 02 Nov 2019 public output, SLR to 2100, 88.2cm Update 11 January 2020 for data 2003.002659 to 2019.806999, SLR to 2100 , 88cm 01 Dec 2019 output to the public 15 Feb 2020 SLR to 2100, 117cm (quadratic was the best fit that time, otherwise indical was 89cm) 624 datapoints from year 2003.002659 to year 2019.9699 output to the public 29 Feb 2020. SLR to 2100, 88.5cm 640 datapoints 2003.002659 to 2020.404245 website back working on 20 July 2020 SLR to 2100 = 82.9cm more details in my sig file below -- Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm |
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Global Sea Level Rise | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
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Global Sea Level rise | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
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[CC] Global Sea Level rise | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) |