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Old October 7th 20, 03:32 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default [ OT ] Global Sea Level rise

From altimetry data

ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_GIA_Adjust_Filter2m. txt

otherwise , when working, from website aviso.altimetry.fr
For the 1011 datapoints 1993 to 2020 , for when the Aviso graphic
emerges of the
Reference plot,
gradient should be 3.42mm/year to 2 decimal places, if I've not made an
error

For my preferred time-span of 2003.0 to latest 2020.512835
, output to the public probably in Sept 2020.
644 datapoints, avoiding early Jason and Mount Pinatubo problems and
being able to choose x=0 for year 2000.
The following ranked in terms of R^2 goodness of fit
r*r = 0.977796
y= 0.375292*x + 1.35
SLR to 2100= 37.9cm

Exponential
r*r = 0.984118
y= 2.20 -4.495443*(1 - e^(x*0.047218) )
SLR to 2100 = 5.029m (sic, not cm)

Quadratic
y= 2.38 + 0.158836*x + 0.009238 * (x)^2
SLR to 2100 = 1.106m

Best fit as previous results, in the range 80 to 89 cm rise from 2000 to
2100 , surprisingly consistent.
Indicial
y=2.63+ 0.063277* (x)^1.551148
SLR to 2100 = 86.6cm

History of these results, ranking by R*R, goodness of fit, for best
curve type each time usually the indicial form and decreasing
acceleration , using 2003 to the latest datapoint to avoid the early
altimeter calibration problem and post-Pinatubo recovery SLR flattening
and including the 1993 to 2003 tranche does not actually make much
difference to projections.
Initially melding together the separate J1,J2 and J3 plots and then
since 2019 using the Aviso Reference data as the small GIA component is
getting less and less significant and less and less confidence in the
mission cross-over/overlap data, going in and out of the filters.
SLR to year 2100 using Dec 2017 data of May2017 , J1+J2 only , 56.2cm
data to 25 May 2018 to 2100 , SLR 57.1 cm
data to 02 Aug 2018 to 2100 , SLR 50.5 cm
Update data to 01 Sep 2018, public output 07 Dec 2018
SLR to year 2100 , 49.0 cm
Update data to 01 Oct 2018, public output 18 Jan 2019
SLR to year 2100 , 50.9 cm
Update data to 29 Nov 2018, public output 02 Feb 2019
SLR to year 2100 , 77.4 cm
Update data to 26 June 2019, public output 07 September 2019
SLR to year 2100 , 80.2 cm

Update to 25 July 2019, 02 Nov 2019 public output,
SLR to 2100, 88.2cm

Update 11 January 2020
for data 2003.002659 to 2019.806999,
SLR to 2100 , 88cm

01 Dec 2019 output to the public 15 Feb 2020
SLR to 2100, 117cm (quadratic was the best fit that time, otherwise
indical was 89cm)

624 datapoints from year 2003.002659 to year 2019.9699
output to the public 29 Feb 2020.
SLR to 2100, 88.5cm

640 datapoints 2003.002659 to 2020.404245 website back working on
20 July 2020
SLR to 2100 = 82.9cm

more details in my sig file below

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm
 
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