Arctic ice extent is now more than at the same time in the record year of 2012.
Who'd have thought it given the melt rate of recent months.

Still I suppose it is not so surprising considering the stationary cold trough of recent weeks. Be intersting to see the effect on our summer. And the eventual minimum come September. Any predictions?
Lower, higher or the same as 2012?

Len
Wembury

On 17/06/2019 21:35, wrote:
Arctic ice extent is now more than at the same time in the record
year of 2012. Who'd have thought it given the melt rate of recent
months.
Still I suppose it is not so surprising considering the stationary
cold trough of recent weeks. Be interesting to see the effect on our
summer. And the eventual minimum come September. Any predictions?
Lower, higher or the same as 2012?



The excess over 2012 is in the Atlantic side of the Arctic. on the other
side of the Arctic, conditions are lighter than that year and the 2nd
lightest year, 2016. I'm wondering whether more ice has been forced out
of the Arctic which may lead to a new record low. We'll just have to
wait and see.

When I was producing ice charts fifty years ago, I never saw any
relationship between Arctic ice conditions and our weather apart from
the heavy ice conditions off E Greenland in the sixties making any
northerlies colder than they'd normally be. The pressure distribution
was more attuned to SST anomalies in the western N Atlantic.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
With great power comes great electricity bill.
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

On Monday, 17 June 2019 23:52:51 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 17/06/2019 21:35, wrote:
Arctic ice extent is now more than at the same time in the record
year of 2012. Who'd have thought it given the melt rate of recent
months.
Still I suppose it is not so surprising considering the stationary
cold trough of recent weeks. Be interesting to see the effect on our
summer. And the eventual minimum come September. Any predictions?
Lower, higher or the same as 2012?



The excess over 2012 is in the Atlantic side of the Arctic. on the other
side of the Arctic, conditions are lighter than that year and the 2nd
lightest year, 2016. I'm wondering whether more ice has been forced out
of the Arctic which may lead to a new record low. We'll just have to
wait and see.

When I was producing ice charts fifty years ago, I never saw any
relationship between Arctic ice conditions and our weather apart from
the heavy ice conditions off E Greenland in the sixties making any
northerlies colder than they'd normally be. The pressure distribution
was more attuned to SST anomalies in the western N Atlantic.

The natural state for the typical British weather is cold Lows in Greenland.. Exceptions to the rule are Anticyclones like the one produced coincidentally by the eruption of Popocataptle. Not that extra-cool weather from anticyclones has been the cause of this:

"Jakobshavn Glacier in western Greenland, best known for being world's fastest-moving glacier, is growing for the third year in a row. By the third year, thickening is occurring across an increasingly wide area.

The glacier has spent decades in retreat until scientists observed an unexpected advance between 2016 and 2017. In addition to growing toward the ocean, the glacier was found to be slowing and thickening."
Deeply upsetting for the Dawlish among the flowerpots on here. Too bad.

On 17/06/2019 21:35, wrote:
Arctic ice extent is now more than at the same time in the record year of 2012.
Who'd have thought it given the melt rate of recent months.

Still I suppose it is not so surprising considering the stationary cold trough of recent weeks. Be intersting to see the effect on our summer. And the eventual minimum come September. Any predictions?
Lower, higher or the same as 2012?

Len
Wembury


What is causing the very strong positive SST anomaly in the Bering Sea
,between Russia and Alaska, in the last week of NOAA SST output plots?

On Tuesday, June 18, 2019 at 8:15:01 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 17/06/2019 21:35, wrote:
Arctic ice extent is now more than at the same time in the record year of 2012.
Who'd have thought it given the melt rate of recent months.

Still I suppose it is not so surprising considering the stationary cold trough of recent weeks. Be intersting to see the effect on our summer. And the eventual minimum come September. Any predictions?
Lower, higher or the same as 2012?

Len
Wembury


What is causing the very strong positive SST anomaly in the Bering Sea
,between Russia and Alaska, in the last week of NOAA SST output plots?

I have looked at the NH anomaly chart for May and it seems that there was a negative anomaly over the Bering Sea.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...cs/fige9.shtml

This would mean cylonic conditions and stronger than normal westerlies.
Could this have strengthened the northward moving Alaskan current giving the positive temperature anomaly?

Len
Wembury

On 18/06/2019 20:55, wrote:
On Tuesday, June 18, 2019 at 8:15:01 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 17/06/2019 21:35, wrote:
Arctic ice extent is now more than at the same time in the record year of 2012.
Who'd have thought it given the melt rate of recent months.

Still I suppose it is not so surprising considering the stationary cold trough of recent weeks. Be intersting to see the effect on our summer. And the eventual minimum come September. Any predictions?
Lower, higher or the same as 2012?

Len
Wembury


What is causing the very strong positive SST anomaly in the Bering Sea
,between Russia and Alaska, in the last week of NOAA SST output plots?

I have looked at the NH anomaly chart for May and it seems that there was a negative anomaly over the Bering Sea.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...cs/fige9.shtml

This would mean cylonic conditions and stronger than normal westerlies.
Could this have strengthened the northward moving Alaskan current giving the positive temperature anomaly?

Len
Wembury


Recently , just north of the Bering Strait, at 850HPa has seen about
+12 deg C temp anomaly.

On Tuesday, 18 June 2019 08:15:01 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 17/06/2019 21:35, wrote:
Arctic ice extent is now more than at the same time in the record year of 2012.
Who'd have thought it given the melt rate of recent months.

Still I suppose it is not so surprising considering the stationary cold trough of recent weeks. Be intersting to see the effect on our summer. And the eventual minimum come September. Any predictions?
Lower, higher or the same as 2012?

Len
Wembury


What is causing the very strong positive SST anomaly in the Bering Sea
between Russia and Alaska, in the last week of NOAA SST output plots?

The tropical wave from Central America reached the China Seas this week and started frawing down polar air into the middle Pacific, when it gets to America it will set up a bank of cold air along the coast over the coming week. Presumably causing a lot of wet but isn't this the season for SantaAnas?

On Wednesday, 19 June 2019 03:44:36 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Tuesday, 18 June 2019 08:15:01 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 17/06/2019 21:35, wrote:
Arctic ice extent is now more than at the same time in the record year of 2012.
Who'd have thought it given the melt rate of recent months.

Still I suppose it is not so surprising considering the stationary cold trough of recent weeks. Be intersting to see the effect on our summer. And the eventual minimum come September. Any predictions?
Lower, higher or the same as 2012?

Len
Wembury


What is causing the very strong positive SST anomaly in the Bering Sea
between Russia and Alaska, in the last week of NOAA SST output plots?

The tropical wave from Central America reached the China Seas this week and started frawing down polar air into the middle Pacific, when it gets to America it will set up a bank of cold air along the coast over the coming week. Presumably causing a lot of wet but isn't this the season for SantaAnas?

Which begs the question:
Was there anything remarkable about the anticyclone at the end of last December?

http://www.woksat.info/etcaalasxx/asxx18122118.html to:
http://www.woksat.info/etcaalasxx/asxx18123118.html and
http://www.woksat.info/etcabaasxx/asxx19011506.html which can still be traced over France and Italy:
http://www.woksat.info/etcabaasxx/asxx19011606.html and on and off and on and off:
http://www.woksat.info/etcabaasxx/asxx19013118.html
....apart from its duration?

On Wednesday, 19 June 2019 15:05:26 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Wednesday, 19 June 2019 03:44:36 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Tuesday, 18 June 2019 08:15:01 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 17/06/2019 21:35, wrote:
Arctic ice extent is now more than at the same time in the record year of 2012.
Who'd have thought it given the melt rate of recent months.

Still I suppose it is not so surprising considering the stationary cold trough of recent weeks. Be intersting to see the effect on our summer. And the eventual minimum come September. Any predictions?
Lower, higher or the same as 2012?

Len
Wembury


What is causing the very strong positive SST anomaly in the Bering Sea
between Russia and Alaska, in the last week of NOAA SST output plots?

The tropical wave from Central America reached the China Seas this week and started frawing down polar air into the middle Pacific, when it gets to America it will set up a bank of cold air along the coast over the coming week. Presumably causing a lot of wet but isn't this the season for SantaAnas?

Which begs the question:
Was there anything remarkable about the anticyclone at the end of last December?

http://www.woksat.info/etcaalasxx/asxx18122118.html to:
http://www.woksat.info/etcaalasxx/asxx18123118.html and
http://www.woksat.info/etcabaasxx/asxx19011506.html which can still be traced over France and Italy:

I was wondering how such a persistant High could manage to resist absorbing the complex Low above it. Fot about an hour, then became busy doing other things like researching the earlier earthquakes in South Georgia area (2018-12-21 -58.0076 -25.3264 133km NNE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands 5.2 mb)
Before spending an hour finding out what else happened:

A very strong strombolian explosion from Stromboli volcano on the evening of 20 Jan 2019 from the westernmost vents. Glowing bombs are flying far above the horizon, i.e. reach much more than 150 m height, probably close to 250-300 m for some.

Stromboli has been in an elevated state of activity since early January 2019, and there is plenty of evidence that magma is standing high inside its conduits.

Stromboli volcano news: https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/stromboli/news.html

Please excuse my int eruption

http://www.woksat.info/etcabaasxx/asxx19011606.html and on and off and on and off:
http://www.woksat.info/etcabaasxx/asxx19013118.html
...apart from its duration?

On 18/06/2019 08:14, N_Cook wrote:
On 17/06/2019 21:35, wrote:
Arctic ice extent is now more than at the same time in the record year
of 2012.
Who'd have thought it given the melt rate of recent months.

Still I suppose it is not so surprising considering the stationary
cold trough of recent weeks. Be intersting to see the effect on our
summer. And the eventual minimum come September. Any predictions?
Lower, higher or the same as 2012?

Len
Wembury


What is causing the very strong positive SST anomaly in the Bering Sea
,between Russia and Alaska, in the last week of NOAA SST output plots?


In the past, the northern part of the area would still have had some ice
cover at this time of year. So, near St Lawrence Island, where SST is
now about 5C, it would have been as low as -2C. Climate change. Looking
at a charts for a hundred years ago, I see that the ice situation north
of the Bering Strait in August was similar to what it was this year by
mid-May. Also, there was a similar amount of ice in Baffin Bay as there
was this May.

When I was producing sea-ice charts fifty years ago, we had one summer
where the ice didn't clear completely from Baffin Bay. This was unusual
at the time but now it never happens and it usually has all gone by the
end of July. Looking back a hundred years or so, it looks as though ice
persisting through to the following winter was nothing unusual.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
With great power comes great electricity bill.
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]