Is this a load of newspaper-selling bollox?

Dr Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company, said: “November has been another in a long string of warmer-than-normal months across much of Europe, although the last 10 days of the month should be considerably colder, as a cold continental easterly flow is set up. [Actually it's becoming milder this week, but anyway...]

“The pattern change that is driving this colder weather is a bit of foreshadowing for the winter as a whole, as there are indications that this sort of high-latitude blocking may be more of a player this year, for the first time in many winters.�

On Tuesday, November 27, 2018 at 5:40:25 PM UTC, Janet Winslow wrote:
Is this a load of newspaper-selling bollox?

Dr Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company, said: “November has been another in a long string of warmer-than-normal months across much of Europe, although the last 10 days of the month should be considerably colder, as a cold continental easterly flow is set up. [Actually it's becoming milder this week, but anyway...]

“The pattern change that is driving this colder weather is a bit of foreshadowing for the winter as a whole, as there are indications that this sort of high-latitude blocking may be more of a player this year, for the first time in many winters.�

Yes, I saw a headline in my local paper, forecast for a fortnight of snow and ice from The Weather Company, the world's biggest commercial forecaster (sic).
It went like this:
The cold snap could begin as early as next week. Northern England were told to brace for a bumper 24 to 32 days of snow and ice disruption, while the south faces 10 to 14 days. Freezes will peak after Christmas. Forecasters blame the bitter outlook on more Arctic chills and fewer Atlantic spells affecting Britain's weather this winter. The jet stream is expected to slacken, lessening the Atlantics's influence and allowing cold conditions from the north to establish.

So now you know.
This has come from a far more reputable source than the Express.
Would you agree?

Len
Wembury

On 27/11/2018 17:40, Janet Winslow wrote:
Is this a load of newspaper-selling bollox?

Dr Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company, said:
“November has been another in a long string of warmer-than-normal
months across much of Europe, although the last 10 days of the month
should be considerably colder, as a cold continental easterly flow is
set up. [Actually it's becoming milder this week, but anyway...]

“The pattern change that is driving this colder weather is a bit of
foreshadowing for the winter as a whole, as there are indications
that this sort of high-latitude blocking may be more of a player this
year, for the first time in many winters.�


This, from Wikipedia:

The Weather Company started as The Weather Channel in 1982. In 2012, the
company created a broader holding company replaced the word "Channel"
with "Company" to better reflect their growing lineup of digital
products.[3]

The Weather Company was previously owned by a consortium made up of The
Blackstone Group, Bain Capital, and NBCUniversal. That consortium sold
The Weather Company's product and technology assets to IBM on January
29, 2016, but retained possession of The Weather Channel cable network
until March 2018, when it was sold to Entertainment Studios.[2] As part
of the 2016 spin-off, the Bain/Blackstone/NBCUniversal consortium
entered into a long-term licensing agreement with IBM for use of its
weather data and "The Weather Channel" name and branding.[4][5][6]

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
With great power comes great electricity bill.
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

On Tuesday, November 27, 2018 at 12:40:25 PM UTC-5, Janet Winslow wrote:
Is this a load of newspaper-selling bollox?

Dr Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company, said: “November has been another in a long string of warmer-than-normal months across much of Europe, although the last 10 days of the month should be considerably colder, as a cold continental easterly flow is set up. [Actually it's becoming milder this week, but anyway...]

“The pattern change that is driving this colder weather is a bit of foreshadowing for the winter as a whole, as there are indications that this sort of high-latitude blocking may be more of a player this year, for the first time in many winters.�

========

Dr Todd Crawford is absolutely not somebody to spout "a load of newspaper-selling bollox". He has considerable experience, knowledge and peer respect in this sphere. We don't necessarily fully agree with this assessment for winter (or at least not until later winter), and it's an even tougher forecaster than usual, but it has sound reasoning and there is nothing hyperbolic in his statement.

By the way, "*much* of Europe" has indeed become colder than normal, as did the UK. It and NW Europe are now turning milder.


Stephen
Indianapolis IN.

On Thursday, November 29, 2018 at 12:55:28 AM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Tuesday, November 27, 2018 at 12:40:25 PM UTC-5, Janet Winslow wrote:
Is this a load of newspaper-selling bollox?

Dr Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company, said: “November has been another in a long string of warmer-than-normal months across much of Europe, although the last 10 days of the month should be considerably colder, as a cold continental easterly flow is set up. [Actually it's becoming milder this week, but anyway...]

“The pattern change that is driving this colder weather is a bit of foreshadowing for the winter as a whole, as there are indications that this sort of high-latitude blocking may be more of a player this year, for the first time in many winters.�

========

Dr Todd Crawford is absolutely not somebody to spout "a load of newspaper-selling bollox". He has considerable experience, knowledge and peer respect in this sphere. We don't necessarily fully agree with this assessment for winter (or at least not until later winter), and it's an even tougher forecaster than usual, but it has sound reasoning and there is nothing hyperbolic in his statement.

By the way, "*much* of Europe" has indeed become colder than normal, as did the UK. It and NW Europe are now turning milder.


Stephen
Indianapolis IN.

Although the weather has been fairly blocked, the air never became that cold - unlike in 2010.

In Penzance only 3 days this month have failed to reach 10C (20th, 21st & 25th) and the temperature is currently running 1.1C above the 1981-2010 norm.. Back in 2010 it was a totally different world http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/ExtremeNov2010.pdf

I did think that it might have been colder (relative to the norm) in more eastern areas, but most places seem to have been 1C warmer than normal http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/anomt.jpg

It's fair to say the MetO were, during mid November, similarly predicting an extended cold spell lasting into December.

Graham
Penzance

On Thursday, 29 November 2018 10:48:50 UTC, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Thursday, November 29, 2018 at 12:55:28 AM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Tuesday, November 27, 2018 at 12:40:25 PM UTC-5, Janet Winslow wrote:
Is this a load of newspaper-selling bollox?

Dr Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company, said: “November has been another in a long string of warmer-than-normal months across much of Europe, although the last 10 days of the month should be considerably colder, as a cold continental easterly flow is set up. [Actually it's becoming milder this week, but anyway...]

“The pattern change that is driving this colder weather is a bit of foreshadowing for the winter as a whole, as there are indications that this sort of high-latitude blocking may be more of a player this year, for the first time in many winters.�

========

Dr Todd Crawford is absolutely not somebody to spout "a load of newspaper-selling bollox". He has considerable experience, knowledge and peer respect in this sphere. We don't necessarily fully agree with this assessment for winter (or at least not until later winter), and it's an even tougher forecaster than usual, but it has sound reasoning and there is nothing hyperbolic in his statement.

By the way, "*much* of Europe" has indeed become colder than normal, as did the UK. It and NW Europe are now turning milder.


Stephen
Indianapolis IN.

Although the weather has been fairly blocked, the air never became that cold - unlike in 2010.

In Penzance only 3 days this month have failed to reach 10C (20th, 21st & 25th) and the temperature is currently running 1.1C above the 1981-2010 norm. Back in 2010 it was a totally different world http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/ExtremeNov2010.pdf

I did think that it might have been colder (relative to the norm) in more eastern areas, but most places seem to have been 1C warmer than normal http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/anomt.jpg

It's fair to say the MetO were, during mid November, similarly predicting an extended cold spell lasting into December.

Not sure that last sentence is entirely accurate. I think the MetO were saying it is likely to be blocked into December - which doesn't necessarily equate to cold. They were also hinting a resurgence of limited mobility towards the end of this month before becoming blocked again, which is what is happening right now - but that kind of prediction doesn't seem to catch the headlines in the same way :-)

--
Freddie
Ystrad
Rhondda
148m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/YstradRhonddaWx for hourly reports (very few tweets getting through currently)
Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/st...201811NOV.xlsx

"Although the weather has been fairly blocked, the air never became that cold - unlike in 2010."

But I don't think that anybody reputable was saying that it would, were they?

"I think the MetO were saying it is likely to be blocked into December - which doesn't necessarily equate to cold. They were also hinting a resurgence of limited mobility towards the end of this month before becoming blocked again..."

Yes, I believe that's the case. I'm personally not sure that significant or lasting blocking will occur in December, and any notable cold impact would more likely be for eastern Europe. NAO trends positive again from about the first decade of December onwards, and a couple of analogs have a remarkably strong signal for above-normal temperatures through December.


Stephen
Indianapolis IN

On Thursday, November 29, 2018 at 7:30:01 PM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
"Although the weather has been fairly blocked, the air never became that cold - unlike in 2010."

But I don't think that anybody reputable was saying that it would, were they?


No, I didn't mean to suggest they were, it was just an observation contrasting the recent blocking with the cold of 2010.

Likewise, my comments regarding the MetO were just added to point out they had picked up on the same signals as Todd Crawford. Although, going by the MetO weather outlooks on the 5 day forecasts mid November, I still think they expected it to get rather colder, and last longer, than it did.

Graham
Penzance