The GFS 12Z run has that low deepened 10mB to 961mB and sitting a bit to
the west of Lands End for a whole day, 24 hours, throwing wind into the
English Channel continuously, varying from 45mph to 55mph. I wonder when
there was a precedant for that sort of situation, assuming it comes about.

On Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 4:54:42 PM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
The GFS 12Z run has that low deepened 10mB to 961mB and sitting a bit to
the west of Lands End for a whole day, 24 hours, throwing wind into the
English Channel continuously, varying from 45mph to 55mph. I wonder when
there was a precedant for that sort of situation, assuming it comes about.

Quite a few similar, some a good deal more exciting/damaging. Deep slow moving lows off Cornwall are not that unusual.

E.g http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive...ka20041028.gif sat around for a while, and in Mount's Bay generated a swell bigger, and more damaging, than anything in 2014. http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/PzStorm.PDF .

The current developments are rather more similar to those which gave the last real blizzard in Cornwall, wayback in Jan 1987. It's all getting a bit late in the winter though, for it to be a real repeat in the far SW.

Time will tell of course.

Graham
Penzance

On 25/02/2018 17:27, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 4:54:42 PM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
The GFS 12Z run has that low deepened 10mB to 961mB and sitting a bit to
the west of Lands End for a whole day, 24 hours, throwing wind into the
English Channel continuously, varying from 45mph to 55mph. I wonder when
there was a precedant for that sort of situation, assuming it comes about.

Quite a few similar, some a good deal more exciting/damaging. Deep slow moving lows off Cornwall are not that unusual.

E.g http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive...ka20041028.gif sat around for a while, and in Mount's Bay generated a swell bigger, and more damaging, than anything in 2014. http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/PzStorm.PDF .

The current developments are rather more similar to those which gave the last real blizzard in Cornwall, wayback in Jan 1987. It's all getting a bit late in the winter though, for it to be a real repeat in the far SW.

Time will tell of course.

Graham
Penzance




yes very similar, stuck there for a day
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanaly...maps=24#mapref

On 25/02/2018 17:27, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 4:54:42 PM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
The GFS 12Z run has that low deepened 10mB to 961mB and sitting a bit to
the west of Lands End for a whole day, 24 hours, throwing wind into the
English Channel continuously, varying from 45mph to 55mph. I wonder when
there was a precedant for that sort of situation, assuming it comes about.

Quite a few similar, some a good deal more exciting/damaging. Deep slow moving lows off Cornwall are not that unusual.

E.g http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive...ka20041028.gif sat around for a while, and in Mount's Bay generated a swell bigger, and more damaging, than anything in 2014. http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/PzStorm.PDF .

The current developments are rather more similar to those which gave the last real blizzard in Cornwall, wayback in Jan 1987. It's all getting a bit late in the winter though, for it to be a real repeat in the far SW.

Time will tell of course.

Graham
Penzance




Interesting pdf. Perhaps you could add the surge detail from here
http://www.ntslf.org/files/surgemont...nlyn200410.png
Surprisingly only 0.65m residual , but on a spring tide. I see big-data
NTSLF
undershot the surge prediction for Newlyn and Portsmouth by 50%.
Compared with Valentines Day 2014 , locally Solent area, 1.2m surge but
on a neap tide.
Do they still use baulks as a sea-defence? I would have thought they can
become missiles in high seas conditions. For my area , there may be
surge component from the North Sea as well.
I'll be going to this talk tomorrow, on flooding remedial measures
https://www.meetup.com/cafesci-basingstoke/
I see the company concerned is based in Cornwall.

Do they still use baulks as a sea-defence? I would have thought they can
become missiles in high seas conditions.

Yes, a harbour like Porthleven would be totally destroyed each winter without the use of Baulks. Porthleven is unusual as it faces straight into the 'normal' south westerly sea, a direction virtually every other Cornish port is sheltered from. This is due to the fact it replaced the port of Helston when it silted up, the shelter is completely manmade.

The baulks used are incredibly strong, even so the baulks at Mousehole were badly damaged in 2014 (picture here on P4 http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/S...er20132014.pdf ) At Mousehole the baulks are permanently in place late October to Easter, without them the village would be repeatedly flooded.

The Jubilee Pool was saved by the Friends of the Jubilee pool, and had a record year in 2017.

Graham
Penzance

GFS 06Z run has brought the southern flank 55mph SW winds of Storm
Emma/putative Hector back into the channel approaches area, enough for
me to wind up my surge widget.
Gives 0.7m surge on the late afternoon 02 March Newlyn spring tide, and
much the same for Southampton (plus a little from the North Sea
easterlies earlier in the day

On 27/02/2018 12:58, N_Cook wrote:
GFS 06Z run has brought the southern flank 55mph SW winds of Storm
Emma/putative Hector back into the channel approaches area, enough for
me to wind up my surge widget.
Gives 0.7m surge on the late afternoon 02 March Newlyn spring tide, and
much the same for Southampton (plus a little from the North Sea
easterlies earlier in the day

GFS 00Z run going for 65mph (maintained , not gusts) my widget gives a
surge of 1.1m for our (Solent area) high tides, in the worst case
situation of that low being 50 miles farther north than current
precdiction. So directed into the Channel rather than south of Brest.
So Newlyn may just get the surge from the ESE winds on the norht of the
channel and avoid most of the south channel surge in the worst case
scenario. Obviously if "Hector" tracks more easterly , then a very much
worse scenario for all concerned.