On 10/02/18 18:41, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Scott W writes
Using Judah Cohen and Justin Jones's paper I've had a look at what
impacts SSW / split PV has had on the London area's weather since
1965. It is a real mixed bag with widely varying results. Looking
nationwide and considering Ireland, however, there seems a greater
than evens chance that somebody, somewhere will see extreme weather,
blizzards and -20C, before the end of March.

https://wp.me/p2VSmb-2Dr

Thanks. From your Table 1, there seem to have been plenty of SSW events
that - to the best of my recollection - weren't followed by notable cold
spells, at least in southern England. Similarly, there were plenty of
notable cold spells that weren't preceded by an SSW, most glaringly
1962-3. As you point out, SSW events are clearly just one among a number
of factors that interact in very complex ways.

It will be interesting to se what happens this time.

The explanation I read in 1963 was that the winter was caused by a cold
pool in the SST anomalies south of the Grand Banks. Also, it was
amplified by a particular SST anomaly in a region of the NE Pacific.

Similar cold pools south of the Grand Banks have led to blocked, cold
winters with high pressure anomalies in the Iceland area and low
pressure near the Azores. The last such was 2010-11.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
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