GFS and WRF both have the heavy winds passing between Brest and Nantes,
then continuing over northern France.
But WRF has the secondary low curving more and breaking out in the St
Malo, Channel Islands area of sea. Then over Cherbourg peninslar going
along the north coast of France.
But who would bet on that track instead of continuing out to mid
channel? 1987 in back of mind.

On 30/12/2017 13:15, N_Cook wrote:
GFS and WRF both have the heavy winds passing between Brest and Nantes,
then continuing over northern France.
But WRF has the secondary low curving more and breaking out in the St
Malo, Channel Islands area of sea. Then over Cherbourg peninslar going
along the north coast of France.
But who would bet on that track instead of continuing out to mid
channel? 1987 in back of mind.

The 06Z runs have brought that secondary low further into the channel,
and a bit more wind to pass, still very low windstrength as it stands.

I decided to compare the MetO "Low M" 1987 15 Oct 24:00 synoptic chart
(note re thread elsewhere here, not 16 Oct 00:00) to current GFS
prediction of the corresponding low just south of the 1987 projected
position.
The closest isobar spacing in 1987 is 90% of the closest spacing for
tomorrow morning. But comparing like-to-like spans northish and southish
of the low, Pembroke to Brest.
1987 8mB and 18mB
tomorrow 2.5mB and 6.5mB, 3 to 1 difference
central pressures 960mB and 995mB

The correct date/time to use is the 16th at 0000 UTC

--
Freddie

On 31/12/2017 22:47, Freddie wrote:
The correct date/time to use is the 16th at 0000 UTC


The past is a different country, they do things differently there.
Since so-callled "9-11" the Americans have been trying to make us say
the likes of "22 November ", not "the 22cnd of November", before long
theu will succeed on that. Then they'll go for converting us to
"November 22"

Well it's been common practice for years. In the 24-hour clock there's no such time as 24:00. The day starts at 00:00 and finishes at 23:59. Watch any digital clock as it crosses midnight and you'll see what I mean.

--
Freddie

On Monday, 1 January 2018 11:09:30 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 31/12/2017 22:47, Freddie wrote:
The correct date/time to use is the 16th at 0000 UTC


The past is a different country, they do things differently there.
Since so-callled "9-11" the Americans have been trying to make us say
the likes of "22 November ", not "the 22cnd of November", before long
they will succeed on that. Then they'll go for converting us to
"November 22"

They are a bloody nuisance hiding the FAQs all the time, not that I need more than the list of singularities; which I must have downloaded some time or other.
But at least I don't even say: 22cnd of November.
Not even once a year.

Yes I do know that I am a curmudgeon that sacked the lot of you, just saying!