The Met Office has recently brought up the idea that cold winters in the
UK are associated with La Nina events. As one has just started they're
hinting of a cold early winter.

I thought this tie-in was unlikely so tried to correlate ENSO Index with
CET. First I had removed AGW effects from CET as best I could- ENSO
Index already accounts for this. The result I came up with is that there
is no correlation whatsoever.

Have I missed an announcement of a merger between the Met Office and
Exacta Weather or has Nathan Rao been appointed as CEO?

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

On Wednesday, 15 November 2017 09:36:12 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
The Met Office has recently brought up the idea that cold winters in the
UK are associated with La Nina events. As one has just started they're
hinting of a cold early winter.
Don't they associate increased risk of blocking in the early winter (followed by more progression than average in the second half of the season) with La Nina events? As opposed to cold winters. That's how I read it. A lot depends on whether the block is anticyclonic/cyclonic and its position WRT the UK. I think the correlation is with Europe too, rather than just the UK.

--
Freddie
Fishpool Farm
Hyssington
Powys
296m AMSL
http://www.fishpoolfarmweather.co.uk/
https://twitter.com/FishpoolFarmWx for hourly reports

On Wed, 15 Nov 2017 01:47:56 -0800 (PST)
Freddie wrote:

On Wednesday, 15 November 2017 09:36:12 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
The Met Office has recently brought up the idea that cold winters in the
UK are associated with La Nina events. As one has just started they're
hinting of a cold early winter.
Don't they associate increased risk of blocking in the early winter (followed
by more progression than average in the second half of the season) with La
Nina events? As opposed to cold winters. That's how I read it. A lot
depends on whether the block is anticyclonic/cyclonic and its position WRT
the UK. I think the correlation is with Europe too, rather than just the UK.


If you remove any effects of GW then the correlation is meaningless. Not a fan
of tele-connections in a changing climate unless there is a definite proven
dynamical link as opposed to waffle.

---
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http://www.avg.com

On Wednesday, 15 November 2017 10:44:12 UTC, wrote:
On Wed, 15 Nov 2017 01:47:56 -0800 (PST)
Freddie wrote:

On Wednesday, 15 November 2017 09:36:12 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
The Met Office has recently brought up the idea that cold winters in the
UK are associated with La Nina events. As one has just started they're
hinting of a cold early winter.
Don't they associate increased risk of blocking in the early winter (followed
by more progression than average in the second half of the season) with La
Nina events? As opposed to cold winters. That's how I read it. A lot
depends on whether the block is anticyclonic/cyclonic and its position WRT
the UK. I think the correlation is with Europe too, rather than just the UK.


If you remove any effects of GW then the correlation is meaningless. Not a fan
of tele-connections in a changing climate unless there is a definite proven
dynamical link as opposed to waffle.

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com

I didn't think it made any real difference to us, either seems to produce a mild winter. And although many signals point to a colder winter ahead, I'll beleive it when I see it.

Keith (Southend)

On 15/11/17 09:47, Freddie wrote:
On Wednesday, 15 November 2017 09:36:12 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
The Met Office has recently brought up the idea that cold winters
in the UK are associated with La Nina events. As one has just
started they're hinting of a cold early winter.
Don't they associate increased risk of blocking in the early winter
(followed by more progression than average in the second half of the
season) with La Nina events? As opposed to cold winters. That's how
I read it. A lot depends on whether the block is
anticyclonic/cyclonic and its position WRT the UK. I think the
correlation is with Europe too, rather than just the UK.


It could be that the Met Office weatherman put his own spin on this but
as I said, it did hint at a cold early winter. It makes the 'barbecue
summer' spin look good.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

On Wednesday, 15 November 2017 11:33:57 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 15/11/17 09:47, Freddie wrote:
On Wednesday, 15 November 2017 09:36:12 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
The Met Office has recently brought up the idea that cold winters
in the UK are associated with La Nina events. As one has just
started they're hinting of a cold early winter.
Don't they associate increased risk of blocking in the early winter
(followed by more progression than average in the second half of the
season) with La Nina events? As opposed to cold winters. That's how
I read it. A lot depends on whether the block is
anticyclonic/cyclonic and its position WRT the UK. I think the
correlation is with Europe too, rather than just the UK.


It could be that the Met Office weatherman put his own spin on this but
as I said, it did hint at a cold early winter. It makes the 'barbecue
summer' spin look good.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

It may be teleconnections, but this was in 2016 with a fading El Nino and the prospect of a La Nina (That happened):

'La Niña has a tendency to reduce the strength of the westerly winds which normally bring mild air to the UK in early winter, so is expected to increase the chance of colder-than-average weather.' This refers to the start of the winter.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/researc...winter-outlook There's no link to research.

It is a probability, of course, but the winter was not colder.

This was from 2006. Worth a read:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...6GL027881/full

On Wednesday, November 15, 2017 at 4:11:15 PM UTC,
On Wednesday, 15 November 2017 11:33:57 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 15/11/17 09:47, Freddie wrote:
On Wednesday, 15 November 2017 09:36:12 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
The Met Office has recently brought up the idea that cold winters
in the UK are associated with La Nina events. As one has just
started they're hinting of a cold early winter.
Don't they associate increased risk of blocking in the early winter
(followed by more progression than average in the second half of the
season) with La Nina events? As opposed to cold winters. That's how
I read it. A lot depends on whether the block is
anticyclonic/cyclonic and its position WRT the UK. I think the
correlation is with Europe too, rather than just the UK.


It could be that the Met Office weatherman put his own spin on this but
as I said, it did hint at a cold early winter. It makes the 'barbecue
summer' spin look good.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

It may be teleconnections, but this was in 2016 with a fading El Nino and the prospect of a La Nina (That happened):

'La Niña has a tendency to reduce the strength of the westerly winds which normally bring mild air to the UK in early winter, so is expected to increase the chance of colder-than-average weather.' This refers to the start of the winter.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/researc...winter-outlook There's no link to research.

It is a probability, of course, but the winter was not colder.

This was from 2006. Worth a read:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...6GL027881/full
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They appear to be clutching at straws.
Last November they went for a colder than average early winter.
It turned out milder.
Are they trying their luck again this year?
La Nina and El Nino have virtually no correlation with our seasonal weather here in blighty.
However,the stratospheric vortex is weaker in the easterly phase of the QBO, as is the jet stream. QBO is easterly at the moment.
Such conditions increase the chance of sudden stratospheric warming events and colder winters in N Europe.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon
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