"Alastair" wrote in message
...

I doubt that was its peak, which usually happens in September or late
August at the earliest.

Not last year though, when the peak was early July. Presumably it depends on
the balance between S polar spring melt vs N polar autumn refreeze, for
which the latter seems to dominate historically. Not last year though when
the N refreeze was later and relatively limited.

Was this a one-off or a change in pattern? Obviously no-one knows right now,
but my guess for this year would be about evenly two-humped (like a Bactrian
camel, though other analogies might apply). The next 6-7 weeks of the N melt
season will be interesting though.

On 03/08/2017 20:51, JohnD wrote:
"Alastair" wrote in message
...

I doubt that was its peak, which usually happens in September or late
August at the earliest.

Not last year though, when the peak was early July. Presumably it
depends on the balance between S polar spring melt vs N polar autumn
refreeze, for which the latter seems to dominate historically. Not last
year though when the N refreeze was later and relatively limited.

Was this a one-off or a change in pattern? Obviously no-one knows right
now, but my guess for this year would be about evenly two-humped (like a
Bactrian camel, though other analogies might apply). The next 6-7 weeks
of the N melt season will be interesting though.

This site

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/ind...1834.3500.html

is very informative on the Arctic situation, if you can keep up with the
current rate of postings

Negative "contributions" from both poles, a whopping 92,000 sq km global
deficit , over just one day , to yesterday's data output, to -2.249
million sq km deficit on the day

On 04/08/2017 15:18, N_Cook wrote:
Negative "contributions" from both poles, a whopping 92,000 sq km global
deficit , over just one day , to yesterday's data output, to -2.249
million sq km deficit on the day

Falling off a cliff seems the appropriate phrase, both poles at it.
151,000 sq km loss in one day, to -2.400 x10^6 sq km

A drop of 0.115 million sq km in the global sea-ice situation over the
previous 2 days (NSIDC numbers), to -2.515
I think the disparity with the Wipneus plot, is due to one of the data
sources being 3 or 5 day rolling meaned and the other is straight daily.

On Monday, 7 August 2017 14:34:16 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
A drop of 0.115 million sq km in the global sea-ice situation over the
previous 2 days (NSIDC numbers), to -2.515
I think the disparity with the Wipneus plot, is due to one of the data
sources being 3 or 5 day rolling meaned and the other is straight daily.

Yes, the Antarctic sea ice chart here https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent is updated on a daily basis and does show the sharp change.

Looks like 2 storms are going to rattle whats left of the Arctic ice
over the next week

On Tuesday, 8 August 2017 19:02:40 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Looks like 2 storms are going to rattle whats left of the Arctic ice
over the next week

Stormy weather can delay ice melt, however.

Lots of talk in the spring about a record Arctic ice minimum this year, but it now looks much less likely. Again, I must stress that the minimum is not as dependent upon the March maximum as some may think (and say each year).. It is much more dependent upon the weather in the Arctic during the melt season. I did warn that some confident predictions of a low/record 2017 ice minimum may be premature, back in March!

August is the crucial month and the rate of melt may change, if settled weather occurs between now and the minimum. If not, there is a low likelihood of a record Arctic ice minimum this year.

Update from NSIDC on the 3rd:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

(Contains predictions and a rather large pinch of salt!)

Back to the on-this-day-of-the-year global sea-ice extent deficit metric
figure of
-2.537 x 10^6 sq km, (NSIDC source data) not seen since mid april this
year. No idea if that has any significance.
-3 figure was the end of march 2017

On Thursday, 3 August 2017 20:51:35 UTC+1, JohnD wrote:
"Alastair" wrote in message

I doubt that was its peak, which usually happens in September or late
August at the earliest.

Not last year though, when the peak was early July.

Not according to this chart. The peak was on 31st August 2016. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ch...sea-ice-graph/

In 2015 the peak was in the 1st week of October.