Medium-range forecasting
 

The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z
operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British
Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th

ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in.
GFS: Very mild SW'lies
GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air

All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current
knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is
unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that
state of affairs continue :-)

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

Medium-range forecasting
 

On 08/01/2017 10:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z
operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British
Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th

ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in.
GFS: Very mild SW'lies
GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air

All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current
knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is
unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that
state of affairs continue :-)


That GFS run has sent the model output discussion thread on TWO into
meltdown, with much wailing and gnashing of teeth!

It's all immaterial to me anyway as guess where I'm going tomorrow!

On the one handit would be good to miss 3 weeks of dismal winter weather
but I would be gutted ifI missed out on a significant snow event.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Medium-range forecasting
 

Col wrote:

On 08/01/2017 10:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The
00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the
British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th

ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in.
GFS: Very mild SW'lies
GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air

All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of
current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is
unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that
state of affairs continue :-)


That GFS run has sent the model output discussion thread on TWO into
meltdown, with much wailing and gnashing of teeth!

It's all immaterial to me anyway as guess where I'm going tomorrow!

On the one handit would be good to miss 3 weeks of dismal winter weather but
I would be gutted ifI missed out on a significant snow event.

There's certainly potential for several cm on Thursday. Wind direction looks to
be about right for us to catch the Liverpool Bay shower stream. Should be cold
enough up here for a fair bit of drifting in what looks like being a pretty
strong wind.

Enjoy your trip! I'm currently on stand-by but nothing firmed up as yet.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

Medium-range forecasting
 

On 08/01/2017 10:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z
operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British
Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th

ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in.
GFS: Very mild SW'lies
GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air

All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current
knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is
unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that
state of affairs continue :-)


Bloody butterflies, who needs computer bugs when you have those

Medium-range forecasting
 

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment.
The 00z
operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the
British
Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th

ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in.
GFS: Very mild SW'lies
GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air

All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of
current
knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is
unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may
that
state of affairs continue :-)

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty
useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55
forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation
in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight
drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and
drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models
obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real'
obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be
expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as
there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it
would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff
forecasts for today.

--
Bernard Burton

Satellite images and weather data for Wokingham at:
www.woksat.info/wwp.html



---
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
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Medium-range forecasting
 

Bernard Burton wrote:

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment.
The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for
the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th

ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in.
GFS: Very mild SW'lies
GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air

All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of
current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is
unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that
state of affairs continue :-)

-- Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty
useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55
forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in
the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight
drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and
drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models
obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real'
obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be
expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there
were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be
later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts
for today.

Drizzling here for much of the day, too, but not mentioned in the forecasts.
The automated forecast for Tideswell gave the probability of precipitation for
most hours as 'less than 5%'. Yesterday, the prediction was for fog all day but
we didn't have any. The models are now very good at predicting the state of the
atmosphere up to about 5 days ahead but the art of translating that into
reliable forecasts seems to have become lost :-(


--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

Medium-range forecasting
 

On Sunday, 8 January 2017 10:50:35 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z
operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British
Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th

ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in.
GFS: Very mild SW'lies
GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air

All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current
knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is
unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that
state of affairs continue :-)

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

Made exactly the same point on Bruce's site.

https://groups.google.com/forum/?nom...o%5B126-150%5D

Anyone like to forecast at 10 days with the current output? Could all change this evening, of course; gfs and GEM could fall into line with the potential snowmageddon of the gfs 06z. 😃 😃 😃 😃

Medium-range forecasting
 

In message , Bernard Burton
writes
Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been
pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain
on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already
some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had
intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an
hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite
widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development,
and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio
soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too,
that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On
the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the
week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today.

The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website,
and time-stamped at 13:19 says:

This Evening and Tonight:
Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds
at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with
a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C.

I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was
moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that
nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till
later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated
forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on
duty, but it's not very impressive.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)

Medium-range forecasting
 

In message , Norman Lynagh
writes
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z
operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British
Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th

ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in.
GFS: Very mild SW'lies
GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air

All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current
knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is
unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that
state of affairs continue :-)


I think that's a bit sweeping. All one can say based on the above is
that, from this particular set of initial conditions, the weather 9-10
days ahead is not forecastable by at least two of the three models. I
suspect that your statement is actually correct, but one would need to
examine a lot more instance to say it with total confidence.

Of course one shouldn't be looking at just the operational runs but at
the ensembles, which might allow a better picture to emerge, but that
involves more work than most of us want to put in.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)

Medium-range forecasting
 

On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote:
In message , Bernard Burton
writes
Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been
pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain
on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already
some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we
had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into
over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be
quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this
development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a
dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected.
I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there
were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it
would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the
downright duff forecasts for today.

The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website,
and time-stamped at 13:19 says:

This Evening and Tonight:
Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds
at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with
a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C.

I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was
moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that
nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till
later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated
forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on
duty, but it's not very impressive.

TBH I don't think many care anymore. Morale is still rock-bottom and I
know of several who want to give up operational meteorology as the plan
is still full automation (apart from warnings) by 2020.

Will
--