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Medium-range forecasting
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z
operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org @TideswellWeathr |
Medium-range forecasting
On 08/01/2017 10:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) That GFS run has sent the model output discussion thread on TWO into meltdown, with much wailing and gnashing of teeth! It's all immaterial to me anyway as guess where I'm going tomorrow! On the one handit would be good to miss 3 weeks of dismal winter weather but I would be gutted ifI missed out on a significant snow event. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg |
Medium-range forecasting
Col wrote:
On 08/01/2017 10:50, Norman Lynagh wrote: The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) That GFS run has sent the model output discussion thread on TWO into meltdown, with much wailing and gnashing of teeth! It's all immaterial to me anyway as guess where I'm going tomorrow! On the one handit would be good to miss 3 weeks of dismal winter weather but I would be gutted ifI missed out on a significant snow event. There's certainly potential for several cm on Thursday. Wind direction looks to be about right for us to catch the Liverpool Bay shower stream. Should be cold enough up here for a fair bit of drifting in what looks like being a pretty strong wind. Enjoy your trip! I'm currently on stand-by but nothing firmed up as yet. -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org @TideswellWeathr |
Medium-range forecasting
On 08/01/2017 10:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) Bloody butterflies, who needs computer bugs when you have those |
Medium-range forecasting
"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
... The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org @TideswellWeathr Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. -- Bernard Burton Satellite images and weather data for Wokingham at: www.woksat.info/wwp.html --- This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software. https://www.avast.com/antivirus |
Medium-range forecasting
Bernard Burton wrote:
"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message ... The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org @TideswellWeathr Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. Drizzling here for much of the day, too, but not mentioned in the forecasts. The automated forecast for Tideswell gave the probability of precipitation for most hours as 'less than 5%'. Yesterday, the prediction was for fog all day but we didn't have any. The models are now very good at predicting the state of the atmosphere up to about 5 days ahead but the art of translating that into reliable forecasts seems to have become lost :-( -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org @TideswellWeathr |
Medium-range forecasting
On Sunday, 8 January 2017 10:50:35 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org @TideswellWeathr Made exactly the same point on Bruce's site. https://groups.google.com/forum/?nom...o%5B126-150%5D Anyone like to forecast at 10 days with the current output? Could all change this evening, of course; gfs and GEM could fall into line with the potential snowmageddon of the gfs 06z. 😃 😃 😃 😃 |
Medium-range forecasting
In message , Bernard Burton
writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. -- John Hall "One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses for a hand-held iguana maker" Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!) |
Medium-range forecasting
In message , Norman Lynagh
writes The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) I think that's a bit sweeping. All one can say based on the above is that, from this particular set of initial conditions, the weather 9-10 days ahead is not forecastable by at least two of the three models. I suspect that your statement is actually correct, but one would need to examine a lot more instance to say it with total confidence. Of course one shouldn't be looking at just the operational runs but at the ensembles, which might allow a better picture to emerge, but that involves more work than most of us want to put in. -- John Hall "One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses for a hand-held iguana maker" Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!) |
Medium-range forecasting
On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote:
In message , Bernard Burton writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. TBH I don't think many care anymore. Morale is still rock-bottom and I know of several who want to give up operational meteorology as the plan is still full automation (apart from warnings) by 2020. Will -- |
Medium-range forecasting
On 09/01/17 17:17, Eskimo Will wrote:
On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote: In message , Bernard Burton writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. TBH I don't think many care anymore. Morale is still rock-bottom and I know of several who want to give up operational meteorology as the plan is still full automation (apart from warnings) by 2020. Nothing too new regarding automated forecasting. Work on computer-generated shipping forecasts was begun at least forty years ago. Also, when I started working on MOS forecasts almost forty years ago, the problems the Canadian Met service had had with forecast verification could have been associated with lowered morale or, perhaps, laziness. As MOS output had improved, so forecasters' accuracy deteriorated. When I was forecasting, there were a few forecasters I would have been glad to have seen replaced by a machine. As an example, on one morning I came on duty to find the night-duty forecaster has drawn a single pencil line on the 0300 UK chart that was supposed to mark a warm front and that was the sum total of his work on those charts. It struck me as an unusual front in that it had no cloud on it whatsoever let alone any sign of the rain he said it would bring in the afternoon. It came as little surprise that the forecast he handed over to me bore no relationship to reality and I was having to issue amendments before he'd left the building. I think the 'afternoon rain' may have got him before he got to his car at 0845. In those days, some forty five years ago, it was well-known that TAFs issued by LAP for their outstations were nigh on useless and that it would take much effort to persuade them to correct a really bad TAF. Automation couldn't come soon enough. -- Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer] Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/ There are more fools than knaves in the world, else the knaves would not have enough to live upon. [Samuel Butler] |
Medium-range forecasting
On Monday, 9 January 2017 17:16:22 UTC, wrote:
On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote: In message , Bernard Burton writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. TBH I don't think many care anymore..... Nor do many others will, smug. But then again, you won't see this, so maybe just concentrate on your perfect driving in the snow eh? |
Medium-range forecasting
On 09/01/2017 17:17, Eskimo Will wrote:
On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote: In message , Bernard Burton writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. TBH I don't think many care anymore. Morale is still rock-bottom and I know of several who want to give up operational meteorology as the plan is still full automation (apart from warnings) by 2020. Another point is that there is now no experience left in UKMO. I mean real experience of 30 years+ in synoptic met. relating weather to charts etc. If the model says no then the forecasters have little to draw upon to go against it. An example is showers. Not many people know that the high res models do not advect showers, they are formed in situ at each gridpoint. That is why windward coasts get warnings and not places downwind. Of course if the forecasters had a lot of experience of different situations then they could correct that. The next 10 years may see very poor forecasting indeed until models improve and start to take over the experience of relating weather to synoptics. But then again the scientists to do this automation work are often not experienced either, oh dear! And no I'm not going back, I love not working after getting voluntary redundancy (and a big pay off) in 2012. |
Medium-range forecasting
On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 12:30:43 UTC, wrote:
On 09/01/2017 17:17, Eskimo Will wrote: On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote: In message , Bernard Burton writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected.. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. TBH I don't think many care anymore. Morale is still rock-bottom and I know of several who want to give up operational meteorology as the plan is still full automation (apart from warnings) by 2020. Another point is that there is now no experience left in UKMO. I mean real experience of 30 years+ in synoptic met. relating weather to charts etc. If the model says no then the forecasters have little to draw upon to go against it. An example is showers. Not many people know that the high res models do not advect showers, they are formed in situ at each gridpoint. That is why windward coasts get warnings and not places downwind. Of course if the forecasters had a lot of experience of different situations then they could correct that. The next 10 years may see very poor forecasting indeed until models improve and start to take over the experience of relating weather to synoptics. But then again the scientists to do this automation work are often not experienced either, oh dear! And no I'm not going back, I love not working after getting voluntary redundancy (and a big pay off) in 2012. Awwwww. They need you Smug. They need you so much! I'm surprised the MetO bosses haven't been making beelines to your door, begging you to return. Never mind. You'll get some snow at the end of this week so you can make all the visitors to Haytor so jealous of your mastery driving-in-snow skills. Pass me the kill file sick bucket, please. |
Medium-range forecasting
On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 12:30:43 UTC, wrote:
On 09/01/2017 17:17, Eskimo Will wrote: On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote: In message , Bernard Burton writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected.. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. TBH I don't think many care anymore. Morale is still rock-bottom and I know of several who want to give up operational meteorology as the plan is still full automation (apart from warnings) by 2020. Another point is that there is now no experience left in UKMO. I mean real experience of 30 years+ in synoptic met. relating weather to charts etc. If the model says no then the forecasters have little to draw upon to go against it. An example is showers. Not many people know that the high res models do not advect showers, they are formed in situ at each gridpoint. That is why windward coasts get warnings and not places downwind. Of course if the forecasters had a lot of experience of different situations then they could correct that. The next 10 years may see very poor forecasting indeed until models improve and start to take over the experience of relating weather to synoptics. But then again the scientists to do this automation work are often not experienced either, oh dear! And no I'm not going back, I love not working after getting voluntary redundancy (and a big pay off) in 2012. Oh dear, more smugness. Look at me, see how much I've been paid off at the taxpayers expense. Best not mention that gilt-edged pension, eh? Col |
Medium-range forecasting
On Sunday, January 8, 2017 at 10:50:35 AM UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org @TideswellWeathr Northern Britain warning from Met Office yesterday gave 55mph maximum winds over hills and coasts. You can't call urban Leeds exposed - we have already exceeded 55mph at 300feet AMSL. ! |
Medium-range forecasting
On Wed, 11 Jan 2017 00:59:17 -0800 (PST)
Robert Brooks wrote: On Sunday, January 8, 2017 at 10:50:35 AM UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote: The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org @TideswellWeathr Northern Britain warning from Met Office yesterday gave 55mph maximum winds over hills and coasts. You can't call urban Leeds exposed - we have already exceeded 55mph at 300feet AMSL. ! But I should imagine that a lot of people expose themselves in urban Leeds? Will -- |
Medium-range forecasting
On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 14:02:46 UTC, wrote:
On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 12:30:43 UTC, wrote: On 09/01/2017 17:17, Eskimo Will wrote: On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote: In message , Bernard Burton writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. TBH I don't think many care anymore. Morale is still rock-bottom and I know of several who want to give up operational meteorology as the plan is still full automation (apart from warnings) by 2020. Another point is that there is now no experience left in UKMO. I mean real experience of 30 years+ in synoptic met. relating weather to charts etc. If the model says no then the forecasters have little to draw upon to go against it. An example is showers. Not many people know that the high res models do not advect showers, they are formed in situ at each gridpoint. That is why windward coasts get warnings and not places downwind. Of course if the forecasters had a lot of experience of different situations then they could correct that. The next 10 years may see very poor forecasting indeed until models improve and start to take over the experience of relating weather to synoptics. But then again the scientists to do this automation work are often not experienced either, oh dear! And no I'm not going back, I love not working after getting voluntary redundancy (and a big pay off) in 2012. Oh dear, more smugness. Look at me, see how much I've been paid off at the taxpayers expense. Best not mention that gilt-edged pension, eh? Col The 2012 redundancies were a two sided cost saving method for the Met Office and hence the taxpayer. It firstly enabled the final demise of the Observers (of all ages) without trying to find them new jobs. The Observer roles were then spliced with the incumbent forecasters and some refreshed automation (MMS Observing network) (The forecasters did not get any additional pay for absorbing this partial role into their workload BTW). The other saving was to release older more experience forecasters and recruit more fresh young graduates at a lower payscale (and with much reduced pension rights (working til at least 65-70) and massively higher contribution rates...now much like any private pension with no final salary involved ....6 to 8% average contribution rates). The training budget for forecasters was effectively cut by significantly simplifying the forecasting course (making it model centric) and shifting the final training responsibility out to the on-site managers, who are now also training assessors (Again no pay increase for the extra role absorption). The opportunity was also there to change the demographic, for the past 8 to 10 years, most of the graduates have been female, such that now a male forecaster over 35 years old is much more scarce, and most are under 30 years old! So as you can see, the taxpayer's money has been saved, as most of those earlier redundancies involved people who were already approaching retirement or who were in the base level (low paid) Observer roles. Along with role merging and IT/model efficiencies, the cost of staff and pensions is greatly reduced in real terms. Hope this helps |
Medium-range forecasting
On Wed, 11 Jan 2017 05:10:21 -0800 (PST)
Crusader wrote: On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 14:02:46 UTC, wrote: On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 12:30:43 UTC, wrote: On 09/01/2017 17:17, Eskimo Will wrote: On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote: In message , Bernard Burton writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. TBH I don't think many care anymore. Morale is still rock-bottom and I know of several who want to give up operational meteorology as the plan is still full automation (apart from warnings) by 2020. Another point is that there is now no experience left in UKMO. I mean real experience of 30 years+ in synoptic met. relating weather to charts etc. If the model says no then the forecasters have little to draw upon to go against it. An example is showers. Not many people know that the high res models do not advect showers, they are formed in situ at each gridpoint. That is why windward coasts get warnings and not places downwind. Of course if the forecasters had a lot of experience of different situations then they could correct that. The next 10 years may see very poor forecasting indeed until models improve and start to take over the experience of relating weather to synoptics. But then again the scientists to do this automation work are often not experienced either, oh dear! And no I'm not going back, I love not working after getting voluntary redundancy (and a big pay off) in 2012. Oh dear, more smugness. Look at me, see how much I've been paid off at the taxpayers expense. Best not mention that gilt-edged pension, eh? Col The 2012 redundancies were a two sided cost saving method for the Met Office and hence the taxpayer. It firstly enabled the final demise of the Observers (of all ages) without trying to find them new jobs. The Observer roles were then spliced with the incumbent forecasters and some refreshed automation (MMS Observing network) (The forecasters did not get any additional pay for absorbing this partial role into their workload BTW). The other saving was to release older more experience forecasters and recruit more fresh young graduates at a lower payscale (and with much reduced pension rights (working til at least 65-70) and massively higher contribution rates...now much like any private pension with no final salary involved ....6 to 8% average contribution rates). The training budget for forecasters was effectively cut by significantly simplifying the forecasting course (making it model centric) and shifting the final training responsibility out to the on-site managers, who are now also training assessors (Again no pay increase for the extra role absorption). The opportunity was also there to change the demographic, for the past 8 to 10 years, most of the graduates have been female, such that now a male forecaster over 35 years old is much more scarce, and most are under 30 years old! So as you can see, the taxpayer's money has been saved, as most of those earlier redundancies involved people who were already approaching retirement or who were in the base level (low paid) Observer roles. Along with role merging and IT/model efficiencies, the cost of staff and pensions is greatly reduced in real terms. Hope this helps What a great summary, concur with all of the above. I basically took the opportunity when it came up. Come on, who wouldn't! Win for the MetO and win for me. No doubt there will be further exit schemes as departments continue to look for savings. Eskimo Will -- |
Medium-range forecasting
On 11/01/17 13:10, Crusader wrote:
The other saving was to release older more experience forecasters and recruit more fresh young graduates at a lower payscale (and with much reduced pension rights (working til at least 65-70) and massively higher contribution rates...now much like any private pension with no final salary involved ...6 to 8% average contribution rates). As I recall, the virtual pension-contribution rates of about fifteen to twenty years ago were 10%. This was the amount by which salaries were reduced during pay comparisons with outside industry to take account of the 'non-contributory' Civil Service scheme. If you add on the 1.5% real Widows and Orphans contribution, that makes pension contributions of 11.5% at that time. So pension contributions have actually dropped - assuming the previous 10% salary adjustment has been rescinded. I'm sure the government, honest people that they are, would have done that, wouldn't they? -- Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer] Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/ There are more fools than knaves in the world, else the knaves would not have enough to live upon. [Samuel Butler] |
Medium-range forecasting
On Wednesday, January 11, 2017 at 9:55:27 AM UTC, wrote:
On Wed, 11 Jan 2017 00:59:17 -0800 (PST) Robert Brooks wrote: On Sunday, January 8, 2017 at 10:50:35 AM UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote: The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org @TideswellWeathr Northern Britain warning from Met Office yesterday gave 55mph maximum winds over hills and coasts. You can't call urban Leeds exposed - we have already exceeded 55mph at 300feet AMSL. ! But I should imagine that a lot of people expose themselves in urban Leeds? Will -- It's probably more prevalent on Dartmoor! ;)exposure that is! |
Medium-range forecasting
On 11/01/2017 13:32, Will Hand wrote:
On Wed, 11 Jan 2017 05:10:21 -0800 (PST) Crusader wrote: On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 14:02:46 UTC, wrote: On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 12:30:43 UTC, wrote: On 09/01/2017 17:17, Eskimo Will wrote: On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote: In message , Bernard Burton writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. TBH I don't think many care anymore. Morale is still rock-bottom and I know of several who want to give up operational meteorology as the plan is still full automation (apart from warnings) by 2020. Another point is that there is now no experience left in UKMO. I mean real experience of 30 years+ in synoptic met. relating weather to charts etc. If the model says no then the forecasters have little to draw upon to go against it. An example is showers. Not many people know that the high res models do not advect showers, they are formed in situ at each gridpoint. That is why windward coasts get warnings and not places downwind. Of course if the forecasters had a lot of experience of different situations then they could correct that. The next 10 years may see very poor forecasting indeed until models improve and start to take over the experience of relating weather to synoptics. But then again the scientists to do this automation work are often not experienced either, oh dear! And no I'm not going back, I love not working after getting voluntary redundancy (and a big pay off) in 2012. Oh dear, more smugness. Look at me, see how much I've been paid off at the taxpayers expense. Best not mention that gilt-edged pension, eh? Col The 2012 redundancies were a two sided cost saving method for the Met Office and hence the taxpayer. It firstly enabled the final demise of the Observers (of all ages) without trying to find them new jobs. The Observer roles were then spliced with the incumbent forecasters and some refreshed automation (MMS Observing network) (The forecasters did not get any additional pay for absorbing this partial role into their workload BTW). The other saving was to release older more experience forecasters and recruit more fresh young graduates at a lower payscale (and with much reduced pension rights (working til at least 65-70) and massively higher contribution rates...now much like any private pension with no final salary involved ...6 to 8% average contribution rates). The training budget for forecasters was effectively cut by significantly simplifying the forecasting course (making it model centric) and shifting the final training responsibility out to the on-site managers, who are now also training assessors (Again no pay increase for the extra role absorption). The opportunity was also there to change the demographic, for the past 8 to 10 years, most of the graduates have been female, such that now a male forecaster over 35 years old is much more scarce, and most are under 30 years old! So as you can see, the taxpayer's money has been saved, as most of those earlier redundancies involved people who were already approaching retirement or who were in the base level (low paid) Observer roles. Along with role merging and IT/model efficiencies, the cost of staff and pensions is greatly reduced in real terms. Hope this helps What a great summary, concur with all of the above. I basically took the opportunity when it came up. Come on, who wouldn't! Win for the MetO and win for me. No doubt there will be further exit schemes as departments continue to look for savings. Eskimo Will -- Would you advise against me applying for a job there whenever a potentially suitable one for me comes up. |
Medium-range forecasting
On Wed, 11 Jan 2017 23:08:00 +0000
Adam Lea wrote: On 11/01/2017 13:32, Will Hand wrote: On Wed, 11 Jan 2017 05:10:21 -0800 (PST) Crusader wrote: On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 14:02:46 UTC, wrote: On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 12:30:43 UTC, wrote: On 09/01/2017 17:17, Eskimo Will wrote: On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote: In message , Bernard Burton writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. TBH I don't think many care anymore. Morale is still rock-bottom and I know of several who want to give up operational meteorology as the plan is still full automation (apart from warnings) by 2020. Another point is that there is now no experience left in UKMO. I mean real experience of 30 years+ in synoptic met. relating weather to charts etc. If the model says no then the forecasters have little to draw upon to go against it. An example is showers. Not many people know that the high res models do not advect showers, they are formed in situ at each gridpoint. That is why windward coasts get warnings and not places downwind. Of course if the forecasters had a lot of experience of different situations then they could correct that. The next 10 years may see very poor forecasting indeed until models improve and start to take over the experience of relating weather to synoptics. But then again the scientists to do this automation work are often not experienced either, oh dear! And no I'm not going back, I love not working after getting voluntary redundancy (and a big pay off) in 2012. Oh dear, more smugness. Look at me, see how much I've been paid off at the taxpayers expense. Best not mention that gilt-edged pension, eh? Col The 2012 redundancies were a two sided cost saving method for the Met Office and hence the taxpayer. It firstly enabled the final demise of the Observers (of all ages) without trying to find them new jobs. The Observer roles were then spliced with the incumbent forecasters and some refreshed automation (MMS Observing network) (The forecasters did not get any additional pay for absorbing this partial role into their workload BTW). The other saving was to release older more experience forecasters and recruit more fresh young graduates at a lower payscale (and with much reduced pension rights (working til at least 65-70) and massively higher contribution rates...now much like any private pension with no final salary involved ...6 to 8% average contribution rates). The training budget for forecasters was effectively cut by significantly simplifying the forecasting course (making it model centric) and shifting the final training responsibility out to the on-site managers, who are now also training assessors (Again no pay increase for the extra role absorption). The opportunity was also there to change the demographic, for the past 8 to 10 years, most of the graduates have been female, such that now a male forecaster over 35 years old is much more scarce, and most are under 30 years old! So as you can see, the taxpayer's money has been saved, as most of those earlier redundancies involved people who were already approaching retirement or who were in the base level (low paid) Observer roles. Along with role merging and IT/model efficiencies, the cost of staff and pensions is greatly reduced in real terms. Hope this helps What a great summary, concur with all of the above. I basically took the opportunity when it came up. Come on, who wouldn't! Win for the MetO and win for me. No doubt there will be further exit schemes as departments continue to look for savings. Eskimo Will -- Would you advise against me applying for a job there whenever a potentially suitable one for me comes up. Certainly not! It's a great place to work. After 42 years I had had enough of the politics, cost saving and corporate ****e but the work and people were still interesting and nice. Good luck and if you need any interview advice let me know. Will -- |
Medium-range forecasting
On 12/01/2017 08:55, Will Hand wrote:
On Wed, 11 Jan 2017 23:08:00 +0000 Adam Lea wrote: On 11/01/2017 13:32, Will Hand wrote: On Wed, 11 Jan 2017 05:10:21 -0800 (PST) Crusader wrote: On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 14:02:46 UTC, wrote: On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 12:30:43 UTC, wrote: On 09/01/2017 17:17, Eskimo Will wrote: On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote: In message , Bernard Burton writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. TBH I don't think many care anymore. Morale is still rock-bottom and I know of several who want to give up operational meteorology as the plan is still full automation (apart from warnings) by 2020. Another point is that there is now no experience left in UKMO. I mean real experience of 30 years+ in synoptic met. relating weather to charts etc. If the model says no then the forecasters have little to draw upon to go against it. An example is showers. Not many people know that the high res models do not advect showers, they are formed in situ at each gridpoint. That is why windward coasts get warnings and not places downwind. Of course if the forecasters had a lot of experience of different situations then they could correct that. The next 10 years may see very poor forecasting indeed until models improve and start to take over the experience of relating weather to synoptics. But then again the scientists to do this automation work are often not experienced either, oh dear! And no I'm not going back, I love not working after getting voluntary redundancy (and a big pay off) in 2012. Oh dear, more smugness. Look at me, see how much I've been paid off at the taxpayers expense. Best not mention that gilt-edged pension, eh? Col The 2012 redundancies were a two sided cost saving method for the Met Office and hence the taxpayer. It firstly enabled the final demise of the Observers (of all ages) without trying to find them new jobs. The Observer roles were then spliced with the incumbent forecasters and some refreshed automation (MMS Observing network) (The forecasters did not get any additional pay for absorbing this partial role into their workload BTW). The other saving was to release older more experience forecasters and recruit more fresh young graduates at a lower payscale (and with much reduced pension rights (working til at least 65-70) and massively higher contribution rates...now much like any private pension with no final salary involved ...6 to 8% average contribution rates). The training budget for forecasters was effectively cut by significantly simplifying the forecasting course (making it model centric) and shifting the final training responsibility out to the on-site managers, who are now also training assessors (Again no pay increase for the extra role absorption). The opportunity was also there to change the demographic, for the past 8 to 10 years, most of the graduates have been female, such that now a male forecaster over 35 years old is much more scarce, and most are under 30 years old! So as you can see, the taxpayer's money has been saved, as most of those earlier redundancies involved people who were already approaching retirement or who were in the base level (low paid) Observer roles. Along with role merging and IT/model efficiencies, the cost of staff and pensions is greatly reduced in real terms. Hope this helps What a great summary, concur with all of the above. I basically took the opportunity when it came up. Come on, who wouldn't! Win for the MetO and win for me. No doubt there will be further exit schemes as departments continue to look for savings. Eskimo Will -- Would you advise against me applying for a job there whenever a potentially suitable one for me comes up. Certainly not! It's a great place to work. After 42 years I had had enough of the politics, cost saving and corporate ****e but the work and people were still interesting and nice. Good luck and if you need any interview advice let me know. Will -- Ok, I was a little confused as I have always had the opinion it was a good place to work but you seem to have a lot of negative opinions of the place, so I was beginning to wonder if my opinion was wrong. I keep an eye on the scientific jobs and have applied several times in the past, but always get pipped at the post. I'm told I'm a suitable candidate to work there but there ends up being someone else with a bit more experience in one of the required criteria. I guess it is a case of keep trying and hope one day I end up being the first choice rather than the runner up. |
Medium-range forecasting
"Will Hand" wrote in message
. .. After 42 years I had had enough of the politics, cost saving and corporate ****e but the work and people were still interesting and nice. TBH that sounds no different to any other larger organisation, whether in the public sector or the real economy. At a more junior level you're often not very exposed to the less agreeable side of organisations and the first several years' of employment can be both interesting and motivating. But as you progressively assume more responsibility and especially if you get drawn into middle management then the downsides of organisations are usually all too visible at first hand. Two rules: 1. If at all possible, keep your head down and just get on with your work conscientiously, whatever might be going on all around. 2. Always have an escape route planned, at least in outline. |
Medium-range forecasting
On Thursday, 12 January 2017 10:11:52 UTC, JohnD wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message . .. After 42 years I had had enough of the politics, cost saving and corporate ****e but the work and people were still interesting and nice. TBH that sounds no different to any other larger organisation, whether in the public sector or the real economy. At a more junior level you're often not very exposed to the less agreeable side of organisations and the first several years' of employment can be both interesting and motivating. But as you progressively assume more responsibility and especially if you get drawn into middle management then the downsides of organisations are usually all too visible at first hand. Two rules: 1. If at all possible, keep your head down and just get on with your work conscientiously, whatever might be going on all around. 2. Always have an escape route planned, at least in outline. Terrific advice. Or, alternatively, form your own company, where you have no boss. 😎 |
Medium-range forecasting
On Thursday, 12 January 2017 09:58:32 UTC, Adam Lea wrote:
On 12/01/2017 08:55, Will Hand wrote: On Wed, 11 Jan 2017 23:08:00 +0000 Adam Lea wrote: On 11/01/2017 13:32, Will Hand wrote: On Wed, 11 Jan 2017 05:10:21 -0800 (PST) Crusader wrote: On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 14:02:46 UTC, wrote: On Tuesday, 10 January 2017 12:30:43 UTC, wrote: On 09/01/2017 17:17, Eskimo Will wrote: On 08/01/2017 22:02, John Hall wrote: In message , Bernard Burton writes Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development, and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too, that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today. The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website, and time-stamped at 13:19 says: This Evening and Tonight: Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C. I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on duty, but it's not very impressive. TBH I don't think many care anymore. Morale is still rock-bottom and I know of several who want to give up operational meteorology as the plan is still full automation (apart from warnings) by 2020. Another point is that there is now no experience left in UKMO. I mean real experience of 30 years+ in synoptic met. relating weather to charts etc. If the model says no then the forecasters have little to draw upon to go against it. An example is showers. Not many people know that the high res models do not advect showers, they are formed in situ at each gridpoint. That is why windward coasts get warnings and not places downwind. Of course if the forecasters had a lot of experience of different situations then they could correct that. The next 10 years may see very poor forecasting indeed until models improve and start to take over the experience of relating weather to synoptics. But then again the scientists to do this automation work are often not experienced either, oh dear! And no I'm not going back, I love not working after getting voluntary redundancy (and a big pay off) in 2012. Oh dear, more smugness. Look at me, see how much I've been paid off at the taxpayers expense. Best not mention that gilt-edged pension, eh? Col The 2012 redundancies were a two sided cost saving method for the Met Office and hence the taxpayer. It firstly enabled the final demise of the Observers (of all ages) without trying to find them new jobs. The Observer roles were then spliced with the incumbent forecasters and some refreshed automation (MMS Observing network) (The forecasters did not get any additional pay for absorbing this partial role into their workload BTW). The other saving was to release older more experience forecasters and recruit more fresh young graduates at a lower payscale (and with much reduced pension rights (working til at least 65-70) and massively higher contribution rates...now much like any private pension with no final salary involved ...6 to 8% average contribution rates). The training budget for forecasters was effectively cut by significantly simplifying the forecasting course (making it model centric) and shifting the final training responsibility out to the on-site managers, who are now also training assessors (Again no pay increase for the extra role absorption). The opportunity was also there to change the demographic, for the past 8 to 10 years, most of the graduates have been female, such that now a male forecaster over 35 years old is much more scarce, and most are under 30 years old! So as you can see, the taxpayer's money has been saved, as most of those earlier redundancies involved people who were already approaching retirement or who were in the base level (low paid) Observer roles. Along with role merging and IT/model efficiencies, the cost of staff and pensions is greatly reduced in real terms. Hope this helps What a great summary, concur with all of the above. I basically took the opportunity when it came up. Come on, who wouldn't! Win for the MetO and win for me. No doubt there will be further exit schemes as departments continue to look for savings. Eskimo Will -- Would you advise against me applying for a job there whenever a potentially suitable one for me comes up. Certainly not! It's a great place to work. After 42 years I had had enough of the politics, cost saving and corporate ****e but the work and people were still interesting and nice. Good luck and if you need any interview advice let me know. Will -- Ok, I was a little confused as I have always had the opinion it was a good place to work but you seem to have a lot of negative opinions of the place, so I was beginning to wonder if my opinion was wrong. I keep an eye on the scientific jobs and have applied several times in the past, but always get pipped at the post. I'm told I'm a suitable candidate to work there but there ends up being someone else with a bit more experience in one of the required criteria. I guess it is a case of keep trying and hope one day I end up being the first choice rather than the runner up. I somehow think application advice from smug of Haytor may not be the best you could access... I'd counsel taking any feedback from your interviewers on the chin, but as gold dust and contact and foster links with, serving MetO employees for tips and advice. If the MetO is your preferred metier, keep on trying. Don't give up and good luck. |
Medium-range forecasting
As someone who sometimes does application sifting...I could help.
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Medium-range forecasting
On Thu, 12 Jan 2017 10:11:45 -0000
"JohnD" wrote: "Will Hand" wrote in message . .. After 42 years I had had enough of the politics, cost saving and corporate ****e but the work and people were still interesting and nice. TBH that sounds no different to any other larger organisation, whether in the public sector or the real economy. At a more junior level you're often not very exposed to the less agreeable side of organisations and the first several years' of employment can be both interesting and motivating. But as you progressively assume more responsibility and especially if you get drawn into middle management then the downsides of organisations are usually all too visible at first hand. Two rules: 1. If at all possible, keep your head down and just get on with your work conscientiously, whatever might be going on all around. 2. Always have an escape route planned, at least in outline. I did! :-) But yes you are totally correct I became exposed to all the ****e when I turned 50 and became a senior member of the TU. Many things I could not talk about and still can't publicly. Language at Union meetings with Management got a tad rich at times although we had good relations with the HR department. Will (now a free man) -- |
Medium-range forecasting
On 08/01/2017 10:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) I can't work out how to post to a newsgroup with Thunderbird to replying to you Norman. Would I be right in thin king that Weatheronline expert maps (the only source of detailed weather charts I know) have been pulled today to scupper anyone using them commercially as its the first signigicant weather of the winter? --- This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software. https://www.avast.com/antivirus |
Medium-range forecasting
You're at it again, Willy, Now stop! You're TU activities were hardly covered in glory and you know it. If you don't then you're off on planet Will again!
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Medium-range forecasting
In message , Trevor
writes On 08/01/2017 10:50, Norman Lynagh wrote: The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The 00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in. GFS: Very mild SW'lies GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that state of affairs continue :-) I can't work out how to post to a newsgroup with Thunderbird to replying to you Norman. It looks like you've managed it. :) Would I be right in thin king that Weatheronline expert maps (the only source of detailed weather charts I know) have been pulled today to scupper anyone using them commercially as its the first signigicant weather of the winter? Isn't it more likely that the current weather has led to such a high load on their site that their server couldn't cope? -- John Hall "One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses for a hand-held iguana maker" Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!) |
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