On 09/12/2016 23:12, Eskimo Will wrote:

"Graham" wrote in message
news
Up to 13c today felt quite warm despite the lack of sunshine.
Noticed as I passed the newspaper stand the clowns who were predicting
3 months of snow & ice are now going for a hot Christmas day, mind you
they do have more chance of getting that one right


No they don't. The trend is for it to get substantially colder after 16th.

And that hasn't happened, has it?
Hopecasting as usual!

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On 18/12/16 13:58, Col wrote:
On 09/12/2016 23:12, Eskimo Will wrote:

"Graham" wrote in message
news
Up to 13c today felt quite warm despite the lack of sunshine.
Noticed as I passed the newspaper stand the clowns who were predicting
3 months of snow & ice are now going for a hot Christmas day, mind you
they do have more chance of getting that one right


No they don't. The trend is for it to get substantially colder after
16th.

And that hasn't happened, has it?
Hopecasting as usual!


The SST anomalies still point to a preponderance of cyclonic westerlies
for the UK so another mild winter seems most likely. The pattern looks a
bit more favourable for more meridional patterns than in recent years
but a north-westerly reaching us from the East Greenland Sea would not
be anywhere near as cold as it was fifty years ago when there was at
least twice as much ice there as there is now.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
There are more fools than knaves in the world, else the knaves would
not have enough to live upon. [Samuel Butler]

:The SST anomalies still point to a preponderance of cyclonic westerlies
:for the UK so another mild winter seems most likely. The pattern looks a
:bit more favourable for more meridional patterns than in recent years
:but a north-westerly reaching us from the East Greenland Sea would not
:be anywhere near as cold as it was fifty years ago when there was at
:least twice as much ice there as there is now.

I did say when Scott did his winter forecast on the 1st that I fancied
another mild or very mild December and looking at the charts see no reason
to change that view.
Despite a chilly night last night the mean still way up here at +2.6c
Yet another green Christmas, I wonder how many of them we've had in the last
50 years


Graham

On 18/12/2016 18:22, Graham wrote:


:The SST anomalies still point to a preponderance of cyclonic westerlies
:for the UK so another mild winter seems most likely. The pattern looks a
:bit more favourable for more meridional patterns than in recent years
:but a north-westerly reaching us from the East Greenland Sea would not
:be anywhere near as cold as it was fifty years ago when there was at
:least twice as much ice there as there is now.

I did say when Scott did his winter forecast on the 1st that I fancied
another mild or very mild December and looking at the charts see no
reason to change that view.
Despite a chilly night last night the mean still way up here at +2.6c
Yet another green Christmas, I wonder how many of them we've had in the
last 50 years


Graham


Well a green Christmas, at least for where most people live, is way more
likely climatologically than a white Christmas (even when they try to
make it as likely as possible by using the absurd requirement of a
single flake of snow to fall). The snowy landscapes on Christmas cards
go back to the little ice age when white Christmases and cold winters
would have been far more frequent. December 2010 and March 2013 are very
much the exception rather than the rule.

Mind you, by the time they have finished all the rampant housebuilding
and fracking in the SE, a green Christmas will be near-impossible
because the countryside will likely have been trashed. Time to try for a
Met Office job again.

In message , Adam Lea
writes
On 18/12/2016 18:22, Graham wrote:

I did say when Scott did his winter forecast on the 1st that I fancied
another mild or very mild December and looking at the charts see no
reason to change that view.
Despite a chilly night last night the mean still way up here at +2.6c
Yet another green Christmas, I wonder how many of them we've had in the
last 50 years

Well a green Christmas, at least for where most people live, is way
more likely climatologically than a white Christmas (even when they try
to make it as likely as possible by using the absurd requirement of a
single flake of snow to fall). The snowy landscapes on Christmas cards
go back to the little ice age when white Christmases and cold winters
would have been far more frequent. December 2010 and March 2013 are
very much the exception rather than the rule.

My memories of Christmases in Cranleigh extends back to the mid 1950s.
In all that time, I can only remember four White Christmases using the
traditional definition of the ground being snow-covered: 1970, 1981,
2009 and 2010 (like London buses, you wait ages for one and then two
come along at once). Only the first of those had snow falling on the
day. I think there was at least one instance of a few flakes falling
from the cumulus cloud which would have met the MO definition, but I
didn't find it memorable enough to be able to tell you what year it was.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)

On 18/12/2016 19:40, Adam Lea wrote:
On 18/12/2016 18:22, Graham wrote:


:The SST anomalies still point to a preponderance of cyclonic westerlies
:for the UK so another mild winter seems most likely. The pattern looks a
:bit more favourable for more meridional patterns than in recent years
:but a north-westerly reaching us from the East Greenland Sea would not
:be anywhere near as cold as it was fifty years ago when there was at
:least twice as much ice there as there is now.

I did say when Scott did his winter forecast on the 1st that I fancied
another mild or very mild December and looking at the charts see no
reason to change that view.
Despite a chilly night last night the mean still way up here at +2.6c
Yet another green Christmas, I wonder how many of them we've had in the
last 50 years


Graham


Well a green Christmas, at least for where most people live, is way more
likely climatologically than a white Christmas (even when they try to
make it as likely as possible by using the absurd requirement of a
single flake of snow to fall). The snowy landscapes on Christmas cards
go back to the little ice age when white Christmases and cold winters
would have been far more frequent. December 2010 and March 2013 are very
much the exception rather than the rule.

But isn't the single snowflake definition essentially that of a 'snow
day' which
is a standard meteorological obsevation? The only other way to do it
would be a day with snow lying, which would seem rather unfair if a
major blizzard set in at 10am.


--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

In message , Col
writes
But isn't the single snowflake definition essentially that of a 'snow
day' which
is a standard meteorological obsevation? The only other way to do it
would be a day with snow lying, which would seem rather unfair if a
major blizzard set in at 10am.

I don't know see that as especially unfair. After all, with the single
snowflake definition, if it truly was just one (or even a handful) of
snowflakes, the observer might very well miss it. (I doubt that there's
any automated equipment capable of spotting a single snowflake.) Or you
could get a snow shower occurring a mile away from the met. station but
not at the station itself (or vice versa). The phrase "white Christmas"
makes much more sense if it refers to lying snow, and it's certainly how
I have always thought of it.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)

On 19/12/2016 18:15, John Hall wrote:
In message , Col
writes
But isn't the single snowflake definition essentially that of a 'snow
day' which
is a standard meteorological obsevation? The only other way to do it
would be a day with snow lying, which would seem rather unfair if a
major blizzard set in at 10am.

I don't know see that as especially unfair. After all, with the single
snowflake definition, if it truly was just one (or even a handful) of
snowflakes, the observer might very well miss it. (I doubt that there's
any automated equipment capable of spotting a single snowflake.) Or you
could get a snow shower occurring a mile away from the met. station but
not at the station itself (or vice versa). The phrase "white Christmas"
makes much more sense if it refers to lying snow, and it's certainly how
I have always thought of it.

Unfair in the sense that it would miss the official definition of a
'snow lying day' if there was lying snow after the 9am observation time.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On 19/12/2016 18:01, Col wrote:
On 18/12/2016 19:40, Adam Lea wrote:
On 18/12/2016 18:22, Graham wrote:


:The SST anomalies still point to a preponderance of cyclonic westerlies
:for the UK so another mild winter seems most likely. The pattern
looks a
:bit more favourable for more meridional patterns than in recent years
:but a north-westerly reaching us from the East Greenland Sea would not
:be anywhere near as cold as it was fifty years ago when there was at
:least twice as much ice there as there is now.

I did say when Scott did his winter forecast on the 1st that I fancied
another mild or very mild December and looking at the charts see no
reason to change that view.
Despite a chilly night last night the mean still way up here at +2.6c
Yet another green Christmas, I wonder how many of them we've had in the
last 50 years


Graham


Well a green Christmas, at least for where most people live, is way more
likely climatologically than a white Christmas (even when they try to
make it as likely as possible by using the absurd requirement of a
single flake of snow to fall). The snowy landscapes on Christmas cards
go back to the little ice age when white Christmases and cold winters
would have been far more frequent. December 2010 and March 2013 are very
much the exception rather than the rule.

But isn't the single snowflake definition essentially that of a 'snow
day' which
is a standard meteorological obsevation? The only other way to do it
would be a day with snow lying, which would seem rather unfair if a
major blizzard set in at 10am.



Well if it were up to me, I'd class it as a white Christmas if there is
lying snow any time during the day, which seems to me to be the most
intuitive way of defining it, since the "white" part surely relates to
visual observation of the landscape. By this definition your 10am
blizzard would result in a white Christmas.