Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On 17/02/2016 08:16, dawlish wrote:
Absolutely correct. It's a 'may'.

There is no evidence that this will occur and deniers have simply
been wrong about the expectations that the recent GW has in some way
been due to solar cycles. Idiots grasp at straws. Scientist
understand likelihoods.

Interestingly that well known sceptic site The Register has even
conceded on this one that the denier claims on sunspot cycles is bogus
and an artefact of improvements in counting methods from 1947 onwards.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/08...limate_change/

The original IAU press release on the systematic errors that were found
when combining Wolf's historical method of counting with the modern way.

http://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau1508/

Another straw that AGW deniers like to clutch at has been removed.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On 17/02/2016 08:40, JCW wrote:
On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:58:27 UTC, Martin Brown wrote:

[snip]

There certainly could be some effect since a highly active sun can fluff
up the outer atmosphere and increases drag on satellites. It is also
very slightly brighter by 0.1% when active despite having dark sunspots
it also has bright faculae which occupy a much larger area.

A Dalton minimum-type possibility, eh?

There is always a slight possibility of anything.

There is some evidence that the solar dynamo is weakening and if it
drops below a certain threshold then sunspots will become rarer.

I noted that, Martin. There's more than enough evidence from the qualified scientific community supporting climate change.

Less evidence, yet, to show direct correlation to sun cycles and more work to be done I think?
But gladly accept pointers to sources where this may not be do!

There is a slight correlation about +/-0.1% in solar luminosity ~1W/m^2
with the solar sunspot cycle brighter with an active sun, and also some
still slightly circumstantial evidence that UV emissions increase more
strongly with an active sun and make the Earth's atmosphere fluff up and
retain heat slightly better. The TSI records from satellites show the
slight variation in total solar irradiance over the 11 year cycle.

http://www.acrim.com/

There is always room for more research on the solar variability. We
would be in severe trouble if the suns luminosity changed abruptly!

Here is one such study from GISS

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/rind_03/

Even if there was a low sunspot cycle coming for #25, would the signal be over ridden
in any event by what's happening with our climate?

That tipping point they talk about isn't that far away it seems, if it's not here already?

TBH I am fairly sceptical of claims about tipping points although it
could be that the world's chaotic climate will at some point jump to
another attractor and then we get different climates in some places.

If it happens then hysteresis means that the planet will have to cool by
quite a long way before it will jump back to our present state.

Meanwhile, the "weather" will continue to bounce around and vary cold/hot in the short term.....

That is sort of the meaning of weather. The only certainty is that a
warmer atmosphere and a prevailing wind coming in over warmer oceans
means more precipitation in the highlands. Prepare for more flooding.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Wed, 17 Feb 2016 09:13:38 +0000
Martin Brown wrote:

TBH I am fairly sceptical of claims about tipping points although it
could be that the world's chaotic climate will at some point jump to
another attractor and then we get different climates in some places.

One tipping point that may be worth considering is the one associated
with the bistable nature of the North Atlantic current system. The NAD
may flip from being a warm offshoot of the Gulf Stream to a cold one
sourced from the Labrador current. Over the past week or so, I've been
wondering whether this flip, which I read about nearly fifty years ago,
may be the result of surface water salinity changes rather than the
much-trumpeted Ocean Conveyor.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

Solar cycles may add up to 0.18c to global temperatures at the peak of a cycle:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Sola...l-warming.html

The opposite will occur in a cycle trough. At present we are mid-way in a cycle so pedant solar output would be unlikely to be augmenting, or diminish GW.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/so...le-progression

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On 17/02/2016 09:44, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 17 Feb 2016 09:13:38 +0000
Martin Brown wrote:

TBH I am fairly sceptical of claims about tipping points although it
could be that the world's chaotic climate will at some point jump to
another attractor and then we get different climates in some places.

One tipping point that may be worth considering is the one associated
with the bistable nature of the North Atlantic current system. The NAD
may flip from being a warm offshoot of the Gulf Stream to a cold one
sourced from the Labrador current. Over the past week or so, I've been
wondering whether this flip, which I read about nearly fifty years ago,
may be the result of surface water salinity changes rather than the
much-trumpeted Ocean Conveyor.

A major ocean current stalling or changing its path would be quite
catastrophic for the places that benefit from its effects.

The UK could end up a lot colder with a climate more appropriate to its
high latitude in a globally warmer world if the Atlantic Conveyor (aka
Gulf Stream) stopped providing us with a nice warm ocean current.

I suspect we will only know we reached a tipping point well after the
event. For the first few years it will just be abnormal weather.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On 17/02/2016 10:01, dawlish wrote:
Solar cycles may add up to 0.18c to global temperatures at the peak of a cycle:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Sola...l-warming.html

The opposite will occur in a cycle trough. At present we are mid-way in a cycle
so pedant solar output would be unlikely to be augmenting, or
diminish GW.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/so...le-progression

The suns photosphere at the moment is astonishingly boring with just one
obvious spot visible and a bunch of faculae round a group on the limb at
3 O'clock. That is a bit feeble for this stage of the cycle.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/...e/hmi_igr/512/

It is mainly bad news for owners of expensive solar prominence scopes
and those on high latitude holidays to see the Aurora Borealis.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On 17/02/2016 10:16, Martin Brown wrote:
On 17/02/2016 10:01, dawlish wrote:
Solar cycles may add up to 0.18c to global temperatures at the peak of
a cycle:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Sola...l-warming.html

The opposite will occur in a cycle trough. At present we are mid-way
in a cycle
so pedant solar output would be unlikely to be augmenting, or
diminish GW.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/so...le-progression

The suns photosphere at the moment is astonishingly boring with just one
obvious spot visible and a bunch of faculae round a group on the limb at
3 O'clock. That is a bit feeble for this stage of the cycle.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/...e/hmi_igr/512/

It is mainly bad news for owners of expensive solar prominence scopes
and those on high latitude holidays to see the Aurora Borealis.

Spoke too soon - a K6 geomagnetic storm level G2 predicted to hit last
night! Slight chance of seeing something in northern UK if clear.

It is grey, cold wet and miserable here in North Yorkshire today.
Give me sunny clear blue winter skies and cold any day.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

In message -jade, Graham P Davis
writes
One tipping point that may be worth considering is the one associated
with the bistable nature of the North Atlantic current system. The NAD
may flip from being a warm offshoot of the Gulf Stream to a cold one
sourced from the Labrador current. Over the past week or so, I've been
wondering whether this flip, which I read about nearly fifty years ago,
may be the result of surface water salinity changes rather than the
much-trumpeted Ocean Conveyor.

Interesting. Do we know roughly when previous flips may have occurred?
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

How to affect a forum
 

On Wednesday, 17 February 2016 09:44:06 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 17 Feb 2016 09:13:38 +0000
Martin Brown wrote:

TBH I am fairly sceptical of claims about tipping points although it
could be that the world's chaotic climate will at some point jump to
another attractor and then we get different climates in some places.

You are obviously not sceptical enough or you wouldn't get involved.

One tipping point that may be worth considering is the one associated
with the bistable nature of the North Atlantic current system. The NAD
may flip from being a warm offshoot of the Gulf Stream to a cold one
sourced from the Labrador current.

What you just stated is that in over 50 years of observation you have no idea how weather works.

Over the past week or so, I've been
wondering whether this flip, which I read about nearly fifty years ago,
may be the result of surface water salinity changes rather than the
much-trumpeted Ocean Conveyor.

Statistics are a useful tool if they tell you anything that can be used with certainty. If they can't then you are left with a broken tool that may or may not yield further clues.

If you don't know by now that you can't make forecasts if you have to rely on percentage certainties, you are no better than the idiots gambling with people's lives and incomes.

For them it is just a bit of harmless fun.

The problem with discussing idiocy with idiots is that they are good at it. The problem with dealing with Dawlish is that even if they are not clones they are shills.

The idea is that flowerpot men push an agenda even if the surmise is stoopid so long as these quasi environmentalists serve "the cause" they will do some strange things. It may not be democracy but it highlights the problem of loaded bases when daft ideas come up.

Donald Trump recently spoke about it. Apparently he recognised some of the "world leaders" barracking him recently. Reading between the lines, the American election system is designed for corporate concerns to load their government with people who can be bought cheaply. We have seen the same thing in sport too recently.

It is the sort of politics that consists of as violent a reaction as can be passed off as fair comment. The only way to deal with these ineptspurts is to totally ignore what they don't know, concentrate on what they do know and determine how little of it makes sense.

You then decide if the tiny nugget left is worth your bothering with -with the codicil that you must point out to the unwary exactly what you see going on. So if any of this makes any difference to you then by all means collude in their political aim.

Here is an example:
"
The opposite will occur in a cycle trough. At present we are mid-way in a cycle so pedant solar output would be unlikely to be augmenting, or diminish GW."

It doesn't have to make sense.
It doesn't have to tell you something.
It doesn't even have to have any bearing on the agenda.
All it has to do is focus your attention when whatever it is that these idiots are after sails past your leaking boat.

Good luck with that, by the way.

How to affect a forum
 

Idiot.