Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

Had a quick read of this, understood very little of it, but of course caught the last few lines which read:

"The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years)."

The remaining extract he

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...64682608003787

This should give rise to further discussion / analysis by those with interest and knowledge of cycles and their possible or potential impact on weather?

A Dalton minimum-type possibility, eh?

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 21:21:31 UTC, JCW wrote:
Had a quick read of this, understood very little of it, but of course caught the last few lines which read:

"The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years)."

The remaining extract he

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...64682608003787

This should give rise to further discussion / analysis by those with interest and knowledge of cycles and their possible or potential impact on weather?

A Dalton minimum-type possibility, eh?

A Dalton's Weekly' minimum !!!!!!!!


Now that is gonna affect sellers of businesses, holidays and property. Better sell your properties now.

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On 16/02/2016 21:21, JCW wrote:
Had a quick read of this, understood very little of it, but of course caught the last few lines which read:

"The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810,
in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might
develop.
This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at
least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years)."

Note the use of the word "may". On the face of it this recent cycle 24
is quiet for what should have been a solar maximum but it is more like
those of 1928, 1908 or 1884. Here is the Zurich sunspot number graph:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/im...olor_Small.jpg

OTOH the last five cycles three have been strong by historical standards
(and a part of that has been traced to a calibration error due to a
change in counting methods).

The remaining extract he

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...64682608003787

This should give rise to further discussion / analysis by those with interest
and knowledge of cycles and their possible or potential impact on
weather?

There certainly could be some effect since a highly active sun can fluff
up the outer atmosphere and increases drag on satellites. It is also
very slightly brighter by 0.1% when active despite having dark sunspots
it also has bright faculae which occupy a much larger area.

A Dalton minimum-type possibility, eh?

There is always a slight possibility of anything.

There is some evidence that the solar dynamo is weakening and if it
drops below a certain threshold then sunspots will become rarer.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:58:27 UTC, Martin Brown wrote:
On 16/02/2016 21:21, JCW wrote:
Had a quick read of this, understood very little of it, but of course caught the last few lines which read:

"The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810,
in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might
develop.
This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at
least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years)."

Note the use of the word "may". On the face of it this recent cycle 24
is quiet for what should have been a solar maximum but it is more like
those of 1928, 1908 or 1884. Here is the Zurich sunspot number graph:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/im...olor_Small.jpg

OTOH the last five cycles three have been strong by historical standards
(and a part of that has been traced to a calibration error due to a
change in counting methods).

The remaining extract he

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...64682608003787

This should give rise to further discussion / analysis by those with interest
and knowledge of cycles and their possible or potential impact on
weather?

There certainly could be some effect since a highly active sun can fluff
up the outer atmosphere and increases drag on satellites. It is also
very slightly brighter by 0.1% when active despite having dark sunspots
it also has bright faculae which occupy a much larger area.

A Dalton minimum-type possibility, eh?

There is always a slight possibility of anything.

There is some evidence that the solar dynamo is weakening and if it
drops below a certain threshold then sunspots will become rarer.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

The sceptics have been going on about the weak solar 24 for ten years

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 21:21:31 UTC, JCW wrote:
Had a quick read of this, understood very little of it, but of course caught the last few lines which read:

"The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years)."

The remaining extract he

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...64682608003787

This should give rise to further discussion / analysis by those with interest and knowledge of cycles and their possible or potential impact on weather?

A Dalton minimum-type possibility, eh?

Actually there appears to be a coincidence with solar activity and line storms. But I can quite easily resist discussing a theory based on statistics. That way lies dawlish. Speaking of which you can't seem to resist him. You aren't of the same orientation as Lawrence Jenkins by any chance?

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:58:27 UTC, Martin Brown wrote:


There is always a slight possibility of anything.

There is some evidence that the solar dynamo is weakening and if it
drops below a certain threshold then sunspots will become rarer.

You silly boy.

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

Absolutely correct. It's a 'may'. There is no evidence that this will occur and deniers have simply been wrong about the expectations that the recent GW has in some way been due to solar cycles. Idiots grasp at straws. Scientist understand likelihoods.

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:58:27 UTC, Martin Brown wrote:
On 16/02/2016 21:21, JCW wrote:
Had a quick read of this, understood very little of it, but of course caught the last few lines which read:

"The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810,
in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might
develop.
This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at
least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years)."

Note the use of the word "may". On the face of it this recent cycle 24
is quiet for what should have been a solar maximum but it is more like
those of 1928, 1908 or 1884. Here is the Zurich sunspot number graph:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/im...olor_Small.jpg

OTOH the last five cycles three have been strong by historical standards
(and a part of that has been traced to a calibration error due to a
change in counting methods).

The remaining extract he

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...64682608003787

This should give rise to further discussion / analysis by those with interest
and knowledge of cycles and their possible or potential impact on
weather?

There certainly could be some effect since a highly active sun can fluff
up the outer atmosphere and increases drag on satellites. It is also
very slightly brighter by 0.1% when active despite having dark sunspots
it also has bright faculae which occupy a much larger area.

A Dalton minimum-type possibility, eh?

There is always a slight possibility of anything.

There is some evidence that the solar dynamo is weakening and if it
drops below a certain threshold then sunspots will become rarer.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

I noted that, Martin. There's more than enough evidence from the qualified scientific community supporting climate change.

Less evidence, yet, to show direct correlation to sun cycles and more work to be done I think? But gladly accept pointers to sources where this may not be do!

Even if there was a low sunspot cycle coming for #25, would the signal be over ridden in any event by what's happening with our climate?

That tipping point they talk about isn't that far away it seems, if it's not here already?

Meanwhile, the "weather" will continue to bounce around and vary cold/hot in the short term.....

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:58:27 UTC, Martin Brown wrote:
On 16/02/2016 21:21, JCW wrote:
Had a quick read of this, understood very little of it, but of course caught the last few lines which read:

"The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810,
in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might
develop.
This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at
least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years)."

Note the use of the word "may". On the face of it this recent cycle 24
is quiet for what should have been a solar maximum but it is more like
those of 1928, 1908 or 1884. Here is the Zurich sunspot number graph:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/im...olor_Small.jpg

OTOH the last five cycles three have been strong by historical standards
(and a part of that has been traced to a calibration error due to a
change in counting methods).

The remaining extract he

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...64682608003787

This should give rise to further discussion / analysis by those with interest
and knowledge of cycles and their possible or potential impact on
weather?

There certainly could be some effect since a highly active sun can fluff
up the outer atmosphere and increases drag on satellites. It is also
very slightly brighter by 0.1% when active despite having dark sunspots
it also has bright faculae which occupy a much larger area.

A Dalton minimum-type possibility, eh?

There is always a slight possibility of anything.

There is some evidence that the solar dynamo is weakening and if it
drops below a certain threshold then sunspots will become rarer.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

P.s. thanks for those links, Martin. How to access them later this evening.

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

True. There's always the possibility (as speculative as Dalton, or Maunder minimum occurring, really) that GW will 'save' us from the ravages of such an event.

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On 17/02/2016 08:16, dawlish wrote:
Absolutely correct. It's a 'may'.

There is no evidence that this will occur and deniers have simply
been wrong about the expectations that the recent GW has in some way
been due to solar cycles. Idiots grasp at straws. Scientist
understand likelihoods.

Interestingly that well known sceptic site The Register has even
conceded on this one that the denier claims on sunspot cycles is bogus
and an artefact of improvements in counting methods from 1947 onwards.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/08...limate_change/

The original IAU press release on the systematic errors that were found
when combining Wolf's historical method of counting with the modern way.

http://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau1508/

Another straw that AGW deniers like to clutch at has been removed.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On 17/02/2016 08:40, JCW wrote:
On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 22:58:27 UTC, Martin Brown wrote:

[snip]

There certainly could be some effect since a highly active sun can fluff
up the outer atmosphere and increases drag on satellites. It is also
very slightly brighter by 0.1% when active despite having dark sunspots
it also has bright faculae which occupy a much larger area.

A Dalton minimum-type possibility, eh?

There is always a slight possibility of anything.

There is some evidence that the solar dynamo is weakening and if it
drops below a certain threshold then sunspots will become rarer.

I noted that, Martin. There's more than enough evidence from the qualified scientific community supporting climate change.

Less evidence, yet, to show direct correlation to sun cycles and more work to be done I think?
But gladly accept pointers to sources where this may not be do!

There is a slight correlation about +/-0.1% in solar luminosity ~1W/m^2
with the solar sunspot cycle brighter with an active sun, and also some
still slightly circumstantial evidence that UV emissions increase more
strongly with an active sun and make the Earth's atmosphere fluff up and
retain heat slightly better. The TSI records from satellites show the
slight variation in total solar irradiance over the 11 year cycle.

http://www.acrim.com/

There is always room for more research on the solar variability. We
would be in severe trouble if the suns luminosity changed abruptly!

Here is one such study from GISS

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/rind_03/

Even if there was a low sunspot cycle coming for #25, would the signal be over ridden
in any event by what's happening with our climate?

That tipping point they talk about isn't that far away it seems, if it's not here already?

TBH I am fairly sceptical of claims about tipping points although it
could be that the world's chaotic climate will at some point jump to
another attractor and then we get different climates in some places.

If it happens then hysteresis means that the planet will have to cool by
quite a long way before it will jump back to our present state.

Meanwhile, the "weather" will continue to bounce around and vary cold/hot in the short term.....

That is sort of the meaning of weather. The only certainty is that a
warmer atmosphere and a prevailing wind coming in over warmer oceans
means more precipitation in the highlands. Prepare for more flooding.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Wed, 17 Feb 2016 09:13:38 +0000
Martin Brown wrote:

TBH I am fairly sceptical of claims about tipping points although it
could be that the world's chaotic climate will at some point jump to
another attractor and then we get different climates in some places.

One tipping point that may be worth considering is the one associated
with the bistable nature of the North Atlantic current system. The NAD
may flip from being a warm offshoot of the Gulf Stream to a cold one
sourced from the Labrador current. Over the past week or so, I've been
wondering whether this flip, which I read about nearly fifty years ago,
may be the result of surface water salinity changes rather than the
much-trumpeted Ocean Conveyor.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

Solar cycles may add up to 0.18c to global temperatures at the peak of a cycle:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Sola...l-warming.html

The opposite will occur in a cycle trough. At present we are mid-way in a cycle so pedant solar output would be unlikely to be augmenting, or diminish GW.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/so...le-progression

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On 17/02/2016 09:44, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 17 Feb 2016 09:13:38 +0000
Martin Brown wrote:

TBH I am fairly sceptical of claims about tipping points although it
could be that the world's chaotic climate will at some point jump to
another attractor and then we get different climates in some places.

One tipping point that may be worth considering is the one associated
with the bistable nature of the North Atlantic current system. The NAD
may flip from being a warm offshoot of the Gulf Stream to a cold one
sourced from the Labrador current. Over the past week or so, I've been
wondering whether this flip, which I read about nearly fifty years ago,
may be the result of surface water salinity changes rather than the
much-trumpeted Ocean Conveyor.

A major ocean current stalling or changing its path would be quite
catastrophic for the places that benefit from its effects.

The UK could end up a lot colder with a climate more appropriate to its
high latitude in a globally warmer world if the Atlantic Conveyor (aka
Gulf Stream) stopped providing us with a nice warm ocean current.

I suspect we will only know we reached a tipping point well after the
event. For the first few years it will just be abnormal weather.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On 17/02/2016 10:01, dawlish wrote:
Solar cycles may add up to 0.18c to global temperatures at the peak of a cycle:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Sola...l-warming.html

The opposite will occur in a cycle trough. At present we are mid-way in a cycle
so pedant solar output would be unlikely to be augmenting, or
diminish GW.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/so...le-progression

The suns photosphere at the moment is astonishingly boring with just one
obvious spot visible and a bunch of faculae round a group on the limb at
3 O'clock. That is a bit feeble for this stage of the cycle.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/...e/hmi_igr/512/

It is mainly bad news for owners of expensive solar prominence scopes
and those on high latitude holidays to see the Aurora Borealis.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On 17/02/2016 10:16, Martin Brown wrote:
On 17/02/2016 10:01, dawlish wrote:
Solar cycles may add up to 0.18c to global temperatures at the peak of
a cycle:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Sola...l-warming.html

The opposite will occur in a cycle trough. At present we are mid-way
in a cycle
so pedant solar output would be unlikely to be augmenting, or
diminish GW.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/so...le-progression

The suns photosphere at the moment is astonishingly boring with just one
obvious spot visible and a bunch of faculae round a group on the limb at
3 O'clock. That is a bit feeble for this stage of the cycle.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/...e/hmi_igr/512/

It is mainly bad news for owners of expensive solar prominence scopes
and those on high latitude holidays to see the Aurora Borealis.

Spoke too soon - a K6 geomagnetic storm level G2 predicted to hit last
night! Slight chance of seeing something in northern UK if clear.

It is grey, cold wet and miserable here in North Yorkshire today.
Give me sunny clear blue winter skies and cold any day.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

In message -jade, Graham P Davis
writes
One tipping point that may be worth considering is the one associated
with the bistable nature of the North Atlantic current system. The NAD
may flip from being a warm offshoot of the Gulf Stream to a cold one
sourced from the Labrador current. Over the past week or so, I've been
wondering whether this flip, which I read about nearly fifty years ago,
may be the result of surface water salinity changes rather than the
much-trumpeted Ocean Conveyor.

Interesting. Do we know roughly when previous flips may have occurred?
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

How to affect a forum
 

On Wednesday, 17 February 2016 09:44:06 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 17 Feb 2016 09:13:38 +0000
Martin Brown wrote:

TBH I am fairly sceptical of claims about tipping points although it
could be that the world's chaotic climate will at some point jump to
another attractor and then we get different climates in some places.

You are obviously not sceptical enough or you wouldn't get involved.

One tipping point that may be worth considering is the one associated
with the bistable nature of the North Atlantic current system. The NAD
may flip from being a warm offshoot of the Gulf Stream to a cold one
sourced from the Labrador current.

What you just stated is that in over 50 years of observation you have no idea how weather works.

Over the past week or so, I've been
wondering whether this flip, which I read about nearly fifty years ago,
may be the result of surface water salinity changes rather than the
much-trumpeted Ocean Conveyor.

Statistics are a useful tool if they tell you anything that can be used with certainty. If they can't then you are left with a broken tool that may or may not yield further clues.

If you don't know by now that you can't make forecasts if you have to rely on percentage certainties, you are no better than the idiots gambling with people's lives and incomes.

For them it is just a bit of harmless fun.

The problem with discussing idiocy with idiots is that they are good at it. The problem with dealing with Dawlish is that even if they are not clones they are shills.

The idea is that flowerpot men push an agenda even if the surmise is stoopid so long as these quasi environmentalists serve "the cause" they will do some strange things. It may not be democracy but it highlights the problem of loaded bases when daft ideas come up.

Donald Trump recently spoke about it. Apparently he recognised some of the "world leaders" barracking him recently. Reading between the lines, the American election system is designed for corporate concerns to load their government with people who can be bought cheaply. We have seen the same thing in sport too recently.

It is the sort of politics that consists of as violent a reaction as can be passed off as fair comment. The only way to deal with these ineptspurts is to totally ignore what they don't know, concentrate on what they do know and determine how little of it makes sense.

You then decide if the tiny nugget left is worth your bothering with -with the codicil that you must point out to the unwary exactly what you see going on. So if any of this makes any difference to you then by all means collude in their political aim.

Here is an example:
"
The opposite will occur in a cycle trough. At present we are mid-way in a cycle so pedant solar output would be unlikely to be augmenting, or diminish GW."

It doesn't have to make sense.
It doesn't have to tell you something.
It doesn't even have to have any bearing on the agenda.
All it has to do is focus your attention when whatever it is that these idiots are after sails past your leaking boat.

Good luck with that, by the way.

How to affect a forum
 

Idiot.

How to affect a forum
 

On 17/02/2016 12:50, dawlish wrote:
Idiot.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Not a particularly tolerant, liberal or thoughtful response really. Save
it for people you know. There are a number of us who may appear as
idiots from what we write on here but without knowing us personally or
our current mental or physical state of health I think it is wrong to
mock. Perhaps ignore or engage would be a better strategy in his case.
Dave

How to affect a forum
 

"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
...

Statistics are a useful tool if they tell you anything that can be used
with certainty.

Probably! (But what a classic...)

How to affect a forum
 

Thank you Dave. If you can interpret the gobbledygook in that post, that would be excellent. It's a post from an idiot.

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Wed, 17 Feb 2016 10:59:21 +0000
John Hall wrote:

In message -jade, Graham P
Davis writes
One tipping point that may be worth considering is the one
associated with the bistable nature of the North Atlantic current
system. The NAD may flip from being a warm offshoot of the Gulf
Stream to a cold one sourced from the Labrador current. Over the
past week or so, I've been wondering whether this flip, which I read
about nearly fifty years ago, may be the result of surface water
salinity changes rather than the much-trumpeted Ocean Conveyor.

Interesting. Do we know roughly when previous flips may have occurred?

Sorry, I can't remember whether the book mentioned particular instances
and, if it did, when they were. It mentioned that the flips were
sudden and had been correlated to cold periods in the climate of NW
Europe. The data on the changes in current were derived, as
I recall, from foraminifera in ocean-bed cores whilst climate-change
data came from Greenland ice-cores. If any of this sounds familiar,
it's because the scientists in "The Big Chill" Horizon programme
claimed to have done the same thing for the first time - only they were
actually beaten to the punch by thirty years or more.

One reason why I'm doubtful of the theory that the reduction in
salinity of the deep currents causes a slowdown in the Gulf Stream is
that I was totally unimpressed by the scientists on the programme.
Claiming to have discovered things that nobody had seen before is
either dishonest or ignorant, whereas saying that the Gulf Stream
might stop altogether is just ignorant. When they got so much wrong
on the programme, I've begun to wonder why I ever thought they were
capable of getting one thing right. Still, stopped clocks are right
twice a day so anything's possible.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

How to affect a forum
 

On 17/02/2016 15:20, dawlish wrote:
Thank you Dave. If you can interpret the gobbledygook in that post, that would be excellent. It's a post from an idiot.


dullish the arrogant ****er strikes again!

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Wednesday, 17 February 2016 16:23:32 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 17 Feb 2016 10:59:21 +0000
t. When they got so much wrong
on the programme, I've begun to wonder why I ever thought they were
capable of getting one thing right. Still, stopped clocks are right
twice a day so anything's possible.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

Graham, can you recall was the more recent study one that included examination of tree rings from Newfoundland forests (or the like!)? My dimming memory recalls something along those lines when the claim was 'new' and indicative of slow down in the Atlantic current..? The trees having showed dramatic growth restrictions over a period of time, etc, etc.

Then again, I might be barking up the wrong tree(ring)..and succumbing to Film or storybook fiction overload!

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

Google is your friend here.

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Tuesday, 16 February 2016 21:21:31 UTC, JCW wrote:
Had a quick read of this, understood very little of it, but of course caught the last few lines which read:

"The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years)."

The remaining extract he

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...64682608003787

This should give rise to further discussion / analysis by those with interest and knowledge of cycles and their possible or potential impact on weather?

A Dalton minimum-type possibility, eh?


The transcript of the BBC's "The Big Chill" is he
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon...illtrans.shtml

The abrupt changes had been known before the ice core data was made available by Richard Alley and friends, but it was not known how abrupt they were - only three years for the first half of the Younger Dryas ending.

The THC did stop, but was that the cause of the YD or was it a result of the YD?

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Thursday, 18 February 2016 07:16:50 UTC, Alastair wrote:


The transcript of the BBC's "The Big Chill" is he
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon...illtrans.shtml

The abrupt changes had been known before the ice core data was made available by Richard Alley and friends, but it was not known how abrupt they were - only three years for the first half of the Younger Dryas ending.

The THC did stop, but was that the cause of the YD or was it a result of the YD?

Thanks for the link, Alastair.

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Wed, 17 Feb 2016 08:32:30 -0800 (PST)
JCW wrote:

On Wednesday, 17 February 2016 16:23:32 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 17 Feb 2016 10:59:21 +0000
t. When they got so much wrong
on the programme, I've begun to wonder why I ever thought they were
capable of getting one thing right. Still, stopped clocks are right
twice a day so anything's possible.


Graham, can you recall was the more recent study one that included
examination of tree rings from Newfoundland forests (or the like!)?
My dimming memory recalls something along those lines when the claim
was 'new' and indicative of slow down in the Atlantic current..? The
trees having showed dramatic growth restrictions over a period of
time, etc, etc.

Then again, I might be barking up the wrong tree(ring)..and
succumbing to Film or storybook fiction overload!

I hadn't bothered to look for any papers by them, watching "The Big
Chill" was enough to put me off.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon...illtrans.shtml

I'm really fed up with scientists re-inventing the wheel or discovering
yet again than water is wet.

Just one example:
I think it was in the same book where I read about the bi-stable nature
of the N Atlantic currents that the author explained how ice isn't
slippery because it melts under pressure and that it is due to
the molecular structure of the ice at the ice-air interface. A few
months ago in the New Scientist, there was an article on the recent
discovery that ice isn't slippery because it melts under pressure and
that it is due to the molecular structure of the ice at the ice-air
interface.
Aaaaargh!

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Thursday, 18 February 2016 10:55:39 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 17 Feb 2016 08:32:30 -0800 (PST)
JCW ...com wrote:

On Wednesday, 17 February 2016 16:23:32 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 17 Feb 2016 10:59:21 +0000
t. When they got so much wrong
on the programme, I've begun to wonder why I ever thought they were
capable of getting one thing right. Still, stopped clocks are right
twice a day so anything's possible.


Graham, can you recall was the more recent study one that included
examination of tree rings from Newfoundland forests (or the like!)?
My dimming memory recalls something along those lines when the claim
was 'new' and indicative of slow down in the Atlantic current..? The
trees having showed dramatic growth restrictions over a period of
time, etc, etc.

Then again, I might be barking up the wrong tree(ring)..and
succumbing to Film or storybook fiction overload!

I hadn't bothered to look for any papers by them, watching "The Big
Chill" was enough to put me off.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon...illtrans.shtml

I'm really fed up with scientists re-inventing the wheel or discovering
yet again than water is wet.

Just one example:
I think it was in the same book where I read about the bi-stable nature
of the N Atlantic currents that the author explained how ice isn't
slippery because it melts under pressure and that it is due to
the molecular structure of the ice at the ice-air interface. A few
months ago in the New Scientist, there was an article on the recent
discovery that ice isn't slippery because it melts under pressure and
that it is due to the molecular structure of the ice at the ice-air
interface.
Aaaaargh!

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

Haha...brilliant!!

Maybe this is the science of "to be sure, to be sure"....

Solar Cycles and *possible* Dalton-type to come?
 

On Tuesday, February 16, 2016 at 9:21:31 PM UTC, JCW wrote:
Had a quick read of this, understood very little of it, but of course caught the last few lines which read:

"The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years)."

The remaining extract he

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...64682608003787

This should give rise to further discussion / analysis by those with interest and knowledge of cycles and their possible or potential impact on weather?

A Dalton minimum-type possibility, eh?

Theres a video on this webpage and about 1 min 20 secs. in it suggest that the cold pool in the North Atlantic may be a sign that the THC may be about to switch!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...tic-right-now/