Mind you, the bad
behaviour there has been pretty mild by usw standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
That's unmoderated adults for you ;-)

On Friday, 15 January 2016 17:01:22 UTC, John Hall wrote:

I've been looking at TWO for the last few days. It's amusing that a few
days ago, when all the models were suggesting a more prolonged cold
spell, there were some congratulatory posts saying how well everyone was
behaving. Now that's all gone by the board. Mind you, the bad
behaviour there has been pretty mild by usw standards.

Ah the feral nature of Usenet.

I'm sure there are many wrists being slit at the thought of the cold snap being much shorter - but goodness, the models are struggling of late.

Looking at the 20 ensembles from GFS from 00Z today, 4 out of 20c had a temperature of 1c or lower at Heathrow on the 19th at midday - of the 20 EC ensembles shown, all 20 seem to have be 1c or lower. Not sure I believe these magnitudes, mind.

Richard

On 14/01/2016 23:26, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Further to the earlier thread on this. A most interesting read on TWO
in the Model Output section of the forum, especially for a psychologist
rather than a meteorologist! Basically because of the uncertainty in the
various models at the moment there is the usual ongoing feud between the
irrational cold lovers and the odd person who sees a mild breakdown.
What is interesting is that a cold fan can make a totally unfounded
claim and be declared a hero whereas a person suggesting a mild
breakdown is imminent will be hounded and insulted. The current victim
is one "Shropshire" who is accused of winding them up when he sees that
in the GFS and ECM models. He is quite blunt but never responds rudely
to any of the attacks. It is the anthropomorphism put on the models that
makes me smile. Things like "The UKMO model can be trusted because it is
consistent" as if being consistent means it must be right and therefore
trustworthy. Or " UKMO has stuck to its guns and been consistent in the
story its told, ECM and GFS hadn't a clue and swapped sides every other
run".
It's like a taunting football crowd. Makes a great read though and
funnily enough if you take it as a whole you do get a pretty good idea
of what is actually going on with the various models.

This morning Shropshire was sent a consignment of humble pie to eat
because the models had flipped yet *again*and because he was *wrong*.
With all the current uncertainty how any model runs suddenly be deemed
corect is beyond me.

And then yo have the ones who if not faced with an imminent 1962/63,
1947 or even Dec 2010 setup think that that the cold spell is a flop.
There was one on this morning bemoaning the fact that ther ewas going
tobe lots of boring frosty weather to come. Sharp overningh frosts
followeed by clear, crisp and sunny days. What's not to like about that?
Perhaps he would prefer a return to the muck and dross of December.
Sometimes people aren't happy unless they have a foot of snow!

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Thursday, 14 January 2016 23:26:33 UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Further to the earlier thread on this. A most interesting read on TWO
in the Model Output section of the forum, especially for a psychologist
rather than a meteorologist! Basically because of the uncertainty in the
various models at the moment there is the usual ongoing feud between the
irrational cold lovers and the odd person who sees a mild breakdown.
What is interesting is that a cold fan can make a totally unfounded
claim and be declared a hero whereas a person suggesting a mild
breakdown is imminent will be hounded and insulted. The current victim
is one "Shropshire" who is accused of winding them up when he sees that
in the GFS and ECM models. He is quite blunt but never responds rudely
to any of the attacks. It is the anthropomorphism put on the models that
makes me smile. Things like "The UKMO model can be trusted because it is
consistent" as if being consistent means it must be right and therefore
trustworthy. Or " UKMO has stuck to its guns and been consistent in the
story its told, ECM and GFS hadn't a clue and swapped sides every other
run".
It's like a taunting football crowd. Makes a great read though and
funnily enough if you take it as a whole you do get a pretty good idea
of what is actually going on with the various models.

Consistent does not mean consistently correct, what it does mean is reliable. Therefore you should be able to forecast the times when it is not reliable. Or are you just hoping too much into it?

On 15/01/2016 17:54, Col wrote:

Sometimes people aren't happy unless they have a foot of snow!


2 foot :-)
--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@SS9Weatherman

On Friday, January 15, 2016 at 5:54:26 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 14/01/2016 23:26, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Further to the earlier thread on this. A most interesting read on TWO
in the Model Output section of the forum, especially for a psychologist
rather than a meteorologist! Basically because of the uncertainty in the
various models at the moment there is the usual ongoing feud between the
irrational cold lovers and the odd person who sees a mild breakdown.
What is interesting is that a cold fan can make a totally unfounded
claim and be declared a hero whereas a person suggesting a mild
breakdown is imminent will be hounded and insulted. The current victim
is one "Shropshire" who is accused of winding them up when he sees that
in the GFS and ECM models. He is quite blunt but never responds rudely
to any of the attacks. It is the anthropomorphism put on the models that
makes me smile. Things like "The UKMO model can be trusted because it is
consistent" as if being consistent means it must be right and therefore
trustworthy. Or " UKMO has stuck to its guns and been consistent in the
story its told, ECM and GFS hadn't a clue and swapped sides every other
run".
It's like a taunting football crowd. Makes a great read though and
funnily enough if you take it as a whole you do get a pretty good idea
of what is actually going on with the various models.

.........Sometimes people aren't happy unless they have a foot of snow!

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

With the coldies on TWO.....nail:head. 😀

On 15/01/2016 17:10, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Mind you, the bad
behaviour there has been pretty mild by usw standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
That's unmoderated adults for you ;-)

And long may that continue!

I don't want to be 'nannied' by moderators, telling me what I can and
cannot read. I'm old enough and ugly enough to make that decision
myself. That's what killfiles are for.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Hear hear! (Without kill files, which, of course, are the equivalent of employing the three wise monkeys 🙈🙉🙊)