On Thu, 7 Jan 2016 10:55:11 -0000, "Eskimo Will"
wrote:


"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
.. .
On Wed, 6 Jan 2016 03:51:25 -0800 (PST), Richard Dixon
wrote:

On Wednesday, 6 January 2016 09:48:27 UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Looking like a much colder spell *maybe* on the cards from mid week
onwards next week.

GFS ensembles certainly have a number of pretty cold runs.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...LE=2&MOUSE= 0

Richard

In their 6-30 day outlook issued at 0124 this morning the Met Office are
still
predicting only a brief much colder spell around the middle of next week
with a
return to westerlies and near average temps towards the end of next week.
A
similar setup is then predicted to persist into early February with temps
near
or slightly above average.

And here is what I wrote this morning in my weekly outlook for Dartmoor
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

I suspect the MetO outlook will change soon :-)

Will

That's what I thought, too :-) I haven't checked properly, but I think they've
been re-issuing the same text twice a day for a few days now, with only the time
of issue changing. Not very helpful to the user :-(

On 07/01/2016 10:55, Eskimo Will wrote:


And here is what I wrote this morning in my weekly outlook for Dartmoor
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

I suspect the MetO outlook will change soon :-)

Will

An interesting analysis from Stuart of Chorley weather...
http://www.chorleyweather.com/strong...old-uk-winter/

It will be interesting to see how it pans out.

Although gfs has the SE will within the 528 DAM thickness I am still un
sure whether it will be cold enough for settling snow here. And as they
say the devils in the detail, a NE wind we can get a lot of 'lake
effect' snow here, whereas a north wind, frosty. Then there are lots of
lows showing up around the channel, to me this means either rain/sleet
or snow, or more likely a mix of the lot. Then there's the length of
this cold spell?

Still a week to go, so many rolls of the dice either way I guess still
to come.
--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@SS9Weatherman

On Thu, 7 Jan 2016 10:55:11 -0000
"Eskimo Will" wrote:


"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 6 Jan 2016 03:51:25 -0800 (PST), Richard Dixon
wrote:

On Wednesday, 6 January 2016 09:48:27 UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Looking like a much colder spell *maybe* on the cards from mid
week onwards next week.

GFS ensembles certainly have a number of pretty cold runs.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...LE=2&MOUSE= 0

Richard

In their 6-30 day outlook issued at 0124 this morning the Met
Office are still
predicting only a brief much colder spell around the middle of next
week with a
return to westerlies and near average temps towards the end of next
week. A
similar setup is then predicted to persist into early February with
temps near
or slightly above average.

And here is what I wrote this morning in my weekly outlook for
Dartmoor http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

I suspect the MetO outlook will change soon :-)

Will

N Atlantic SSTs still favour cyclonic westerlies. The pattern is
similar to last winter but displaced further west. Pressure should be
well below normal near Iceland with the Azores high west of its usual
position, somewhere near the Grand Banks say. This doesn't suggest any
long-term spells of weather from the east unless there's an SSW event.
However, the continental high may be close enough at times for brief
easterlies. All in all, mild, windy, wet.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

coldie (plural coldies)
Noun - (Australia) A cold bottle or can of beer.

I think I will be saving my coldies for summer.

In message , John Hall
writes
In message , "Keith (Southend)"
writes
Looking like a much colder spell *maybe* on the cards from mid week
onwards next week. *If* it comes off there is one major difference
from the last few years and that is it is actually now much colder to
our east. One to keep an eye on..

This morning's 06Z GFS is interesting for T+168 onwards.

But the 12Z is very different. I imagine that a few toys are being
thrown out of prams over on TWO. However the operational run is very
much a mild outlier from about 8-9 days out.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

On 07/01/2016 07:01, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 6, 2016 at 7:14:44 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 06/01/2016 09:48, Keith (Southend) wrote:
Looking like a much colder spell *maybe* on the cards from mid week
onwards next week. *If* it comes off there is one major difference from
the last few years and that is it is actually now much colder to our
east. One to keep an eye on..

They are working themselves up into an absolute frenzy of excitement on
TWO over this. If this one fails to come off the model output thread
will be on suicide watch.....

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

They always do. It's what coldies are like;

Not so. I am a 'coldie' in that I much prefer frost & snow to the more
usual mild and wet but I don't behave like that. It's quite fun reading
tha thread on TWO when everybody is generally full of optimism but
things can get ugly if such predictions don't happen and we get the
'toys out of the pram' situation.

sense deserts them when there's a hint of snow and they detest the posts
of anyone who says they might not get it. Their reaction was just
hilarious, when I used to say - like I did in the early January faux
cold spell - you need agreement and consistency to actually predict such
a change with confidence. If you don't have it; you are on shaky ground.

Well now we have both agreement and consistency for a change to colder conditions, after a record-breakingly mild winter so far; hence my forecast. Some areas are likely to get snow next week. How far south, at what levels and to what extent is not at all certain, no matter what some may be saying on those forums.

Some kind of a cold spell from Monday onwards seems 'nailed on' but as
you say the severity/extent is very much up for debate.
Personally, I'd be happy with just some dry weather, sun by day and a
reasonable frost by night. Any significant snow would be a bonus!

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Thursday, January 7, 2016 at 6:36:08 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 07/01/2016 07:01, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 6, 2016 at 7:14:44 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 06/01/2016 09:48, Keith (Southend) wrote:
Looking like a much colder spell *maybe* on the cards from mid week
onwards next week. *If* it comes off there is one major difference from
the last few years and that is it is actually now much colder to our
east. One to keep an eye on..

They are working themselves up into an absolute frenzy of excitement on
TWO over this. If this one fails to come off the model output thread
will be on suicide watch.....

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

They always do. It's what coldies are like;

Not so. I am a 'coldie' in that I much prefer frost & snow to the more
usual mild and wet but I don't behave like that. It's quite fun reading
tha thread on TWO when everybody is generally full of optimism but
things can get ugly if such predictions don't happen and we get the
'toys out of the pram' situation.

Coldies are always happy when someone is forecasting cold. How many times have I seen 'great forecast' as a comment about a forecast that been written.. Just so funny. A forecast is only 'great' at outcome. Coldies, generally, simply don't understand this.

sense deserts them when there's a hint of snow and they detest the posts
of anyone who says they might not get it. Their reaction was just
hilarious, when I used to say - like I did in the early January faux
cold spell - you need agreement and consistency to actually predict such
a change with confidence. If you don't have it; you are on shaky ground.

Well now we have both agreement and consistency for a change to colder conditions, after a record-breakingly mild winter so far; hence my forecast.. Some areas are likely to get snow next week. How far south, at what levels and to what extent is not at all certain, no matter what some may be saying on those forums.

Some kind of a cold spell from Monday onwards seems 'nailed on' but as
you say the severity/extent is very much up for debate.
Personally, I'd be happy with just some dry weather, sun by day and a
reasonable frost by night. Any significant snow would be a bonus!

Nothing is 'nailed on' at a week out (my own forecast), I can assure you! It's just 'likely'. Highly likely for Monday, but that's the best I'd agree with!


--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Coldies are always happy when someone is forecasting cold. How many times have I seen 'great forecast' as a comment about a forecast that been written. Just so funny. A forecast is only 'great' at outcome. Coldies, generally, simply don't understand this.

I like cold weather so classify me as a coldie if you must, but please don't make assumptions.
I am not always happy when cold is forecast, particularly in the summer, but there are times in winter when cold is not welcome.
Today was bordering on one of those days, as on my morning constitutional, my left side was plastered by the south easterly and I suffered cold ear for only about the second time this winter.
It was 5c, which is OK, but walking in a gale at 1 or 2c in heavy rain/sleet is not pleasant, so I don't like cold like that.
A comment about a forecast is subjective. Why can't it be great and wrong, because it can? Fact.
It's going to snow on Wednesday. Great. It didn't snow on Wednesday. Damn, it sounded great, when it was forecast.

On 07/01/2016 19:13, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, January 7, 2016 at 6:36:08 PM UTC, Col wrote:


Not so. I am a 'coldie' in that I much prefer frost & snow to the more
usual mild and wet but I don't behave like that. It's quite fun reading
tha thread on TWO when everybody is generally full of optimism but
things can get ugly if such predictions don't happen and we get the
'toys out of the pram' situation.

Coldies are always happy when someone is forecasting cold. How many times have I seen 'great forecast' as a comment about a forecast that been written. Just so funny. A forecast is only 'great' at outcome. Coldies, generally, simply don't understand this.

They are commenting that the weather being forecast is great, rather
than the *accuracy* of the forecast being great, which quite obviously
can only be assessed at outcome. Two quite different things!


Nothing is 'nailed on' at a week out (my own forecast), I can assure you! It's just 'likely'. Highly likely for Monday, but that's the best I'd agree with!

I'd say it's 'beyond reasonable doubt' that the weather will turn
significantly colder from Monday. That's as near to 'nailed on' as makes
no odds but I'm not going to argue over semantics.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Thursday, January 7, 2016 at 7:34:25 PM UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
Coldies are always happy when someone is forecasting cold. How many times have I seen 'great forecast' as a comment about a forecast that been written. Just so funny. A forecast is only 'great' at outcome. Coldies, generally, simply don't understand this.

I like cold weather so classify me as a coldie...

I don't. have no interest in classifying you as anything but obsessed, mitchell.