The models are out of array, dullish cannot say what the weather will be
for the next 10 days. Get a life dullish, you model jockey!

"Joe Egginton" wrote in message
...
The models are out of array, dullish cannot say what the weather will be
for the next 10 days. Get a life dullish, you model jockey!

He rarely can, which is why we see relatively few forecasts from him.
I think he has proved that it is difficult, but that's no reason to stop
trying.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On 06/08/2015 18:36, Col wrote:
"Joe Egginton" wrote in message
...
The models are out of array, dullish cannot say what the weather will be
for the next 10 days. Get a life dullish, you model jockey!

He rarely can, which is why we see relatively few forecasts from him.
I think he has proved that it is difficult, but that's no reason to stop
trying.

-------------------------------------------------------------
Despite my other criticism of his system in that it is a case of "It
would, wouldn't it" and that a few accurate forecasts a year are of
little use, he is not claiming to be able to make or try to make lots of
accurate forecasts. As far as I can make out he has proved (possibly,
although the work involved in running the necessary control of how
accurate every days models 10 days ahead are when there was no
consistency would be massive) that 10 day forecasts by anyone are close
to random in terms of accuracy and that they only will be accurate if
there is an (arbitary) 80% consistency in the various model output,
which rarely happens.
There are still a few other aspects that haven't been clarified in that
you can't just say "model consistency" because within that there are
many parameters including far more than just general synoptics including
pressure, temperature, wind speed and many more which may or may not be
consistent.
Dave, S.Essex

On 08/08/2015 22:45, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 06/08/2015 18:36, Col wrote:
"Joe Egginton" wrote in message
...
The models are out of array, dullish cannot say what the weather will be
for the next 10 days. Get a life dullish, you model jockey!

He rarely can, which is why we see relatively few forecasts from him.
I think he has proved that it is difficult, but that's no reason to stop
trying.

-------------------------------------------------------------
Despite my other criticism of his system in that it is a case of "It
would, wouldn't it" and that a few accurate forecasts a year are of
little use, he is not claiming to be able to make or try to make lots of
accurate forecasts. As far as I can make out he has proved (possibly,
although the work involved in running the necessary control of how
accurate every days models 10 days ahead are when there was no
consistency would be massive) that 10 day forecasts by anyone are close
to random in terms of accuracy and that they only will be accurate if
there is an (arbitary) 80% consistency in the various model output,
which rarely happens.
There are still a few other aspects that haven't been clarified in that
you can't just say "model consistency" because within that there are
many parameters including far more than just general synoptics including
pressure, temperature, wind speed and many more which may or may not be
consistent.
Dave, S.Essex

Isn't it just consistency on what the synoptics predict we might
experience on the ground? It must be a really interesting measure - the
frequency of cross-model agreement at a longer range and how often this
proves to be right. You'd hope that computational advances would see a
gradual improvement. Over what period though? And will I be around to
see it?

Our weather can be so unreliable and a PITA trying to organise outdoor
activities, cherry-picking forecasts and calling out agreement over ten
days gives some useful intel for planning activities etc.

T
In sunny Surrey

On Thursday, 6 August 2015 10:59:19 UTC+1, jumper wrote:
The models are out of array, dullish cannot say what the weather will be
for the next 10 days. Get a life dullish, you model jockey!

At least he talks about the weather (mostly).

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.