Quite a change on the cards. Agreement and consistency leads me to forecast of a cold continental flow with an easterly component.

**On Saturday, 18th January, at T240, high pressure to the north, or north-east of the UK will lead to a continental flow with an easterly component. Temperatures will be well-below average, with daytime temperatures rising little above freezing in the east of the UK. If skies clear, night-time temperatures will be very cold in some areas, with frosts widespread. Any disturbances in this flow could produce snow showers in the east and any attempted ingress of Atlantic air could produce a band of heavy snow in the west."

What may well happen is grey skies with little change from day-to-day and cold winds. Brrrrrr. Not looking forward to it, but I suppose we have to have some winter at sometime during the winter. *))

No indications at all when this colder weather might end.

On Wednesday, 8 January 2014 19:50:12 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Quite a change on the cards. Agreement and consistency leads me to forecast of a cold continental flow with an easterly component.



**On Saturday, 18th January, at T240, high pressure to the north, or north-east of the UK will lead to a continental flow with an easterly component.. Temperatures will be well-below average, with daytime temperatures rising little above freezing in the east of the UK. If skies clear, night-time temperatures will be very cold in some areas, with frosts widespread. Any disturbances in this flow could produce snow showers in the east and any attempted ingress of Atlantic air could produce a band of heavy snow in the west.."



What may well happen is grey skies with little change from day-to-day and cold winds. Brrrrrr. Not looking forward to it, but I suppose we have to have some winter at sometime during the winter. *))



No indications at all when this colder weather might end.

I think you maybe over optamistic with how cold. The north sea is pretty warm for the time of year and the continent has bearly been below freezing so far this month, right back to Moscow. UKMO still not stuck their heads up yet on the matter, ukmo 12z, I know we don't see very far, doesn't want to commit yet. Twists and turns yet to come I thinks, of course this may go in either direction.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

On Wednesday, January 8, 2014 7:58:12 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On Wednesday, 8 January 2014 19:50:12 UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a change on the cards. Agreement and consistency leads me to forecast of a cold continental flow with an easterly component.







**On Saturday, 18th January, at T240, high pressure to the north, or north-east of the UK will lead to a continental flow with an easterly component. Temperatures will be well-below average, with daytime temperatures rising little above freezing in the east of the UK. If skies clear, night-time temperatures will be very cold in some areas, with frosts widespread. Any disturbances in this flow could produce snow showers in the east and any attempted ingress of Atlantic air could produce a band of heavy snow in the west."







What may well happen is grey skies with little change from day-to-day and cold winds. Brrrrrr. Not looking forward to it, but I suppose we have to have some winter at sometime during the winter. *))







No indications at all when this colder weather might end.



I think you maybe over optamistic with how cold. The north sea is pretty warm for the time of year and the continent has bearly been below freezing so far this month, right back to Moscow. UKMO still not stuck their heads up yet on the matter, ukmo 12z, I know we don't see very far, doesn't want to commit yet. Twists and turns yet to come I thinks, of course this may go in either direction.



Keith (Southend)

http://www.southendweather.net

"Weather Home & Abroad"

twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

I would've thought that any decent cold blast will have to come from a northerly, given how warm the continent is at the moment. A good week of 'cool down' is needed first?

Keith (Southend)G wrote:

I think you maybe over optamistic with how cold. The north sea is
pretty warm for the time of year and the continent has bearly been
below freezing so far this month, right back to Moscow. UKMO still
not stuck their heads up yet on the matter, ukmo 12z, I know we don't
see very far, doesn't want to commit yet. Twists and turns yet to
come I thinks, of course this may go in either direction.


I was thinking exactly the same thing, with Europe as far as Moscow
being so mild, just where is the cold air going to come from?
But of course with the change in synoptics Moscow and then areas
progressively west will become cold quite quickly and then finally
ourselves.

The cold weather is still at least a week away from here.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

In article ,
Scott W writes:
I would've thought that any decent cold blast will have to come
from a northerly, given how warm the continent is at the moment.
A good week of 'cool down' is needed first?

As far as I can see the cold air is over the Arctic at present, and over
the next week heads south and subsequently west towards us. I think
we've seen in the past that big changes can happen very rapidly. I refer
you to the charts in mid-January 1947.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Wednesday, 8 January 2014 22:35:06 UTC, John Hall wrote:


As far as I can see the cold air is over the Arctic at present, and over

the next week heads south and subsequently west towards us. I think

we've seen in the past that big changes can happen very rapidly. I refer

you to the charts in mid-January 1947.

--

John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat

The subjects of the King,

And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:

Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"


Oh John, stop it :-) you are a tease

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

On Wednesday, January 8, 2014 7:50:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Quite a change on the cards. Agreement and consistency leads me to forecast of a cold continental flow with an easterly component.



**On Saturday, 18th January, at T240, high pressure to the north, or north-east of the UK will lead to a continental flow with an easterly component.. Temperatures will be well-below average, with daytime temperatures rising little above freezing in the east of the UK. If skies clear, night-time temperatures will be very cold in some areas, with frosts widespread. Any disturbances in this flow could produce snow showers in the east and any attempted ingress of Atlantic air could produce a band of heavy snow in the west.."



What may well happen is grey skies with little change from day-to-day and cold winds. Brrrrrr. Not looking forward to it, but I suppose we have to have some winter at sometime during the winter. *))



No indications at all when this colder weather might end.

Nothing to make me think this forecast won't achieve outcome, but there is a long way to go. All sorts of possibilities for snow, perhaps heavy, in the south of England with those charts and low pressure so close to us over France/ Low Countries. Coo!

On 08/01/2014 19:50, Dawlish wrote:
Quite a change on the cards. Agreement and consistency leads me to forecast of a cold continental flow with an easterly component.

**On Saturday, 18th January, at T240, high pressure to the north, or north-east of the UK will lead to a continental flow with an easterly component. Temperatures will be well-below average, with daytime temperatures rising little above freezing in the east of the UK. If skies clear, night-time temperatures will be very cold in some areas, with frosts widespread. Any disturbances in this flow could produce snow showers in the east and any attempted ingress of Atlantic air could produce a band of heavy snow in the west."

What may well happen is grey skies with little change from day-to-day and cold winds. Brrrrrr. Not looking forward to it, but I suppose we have to have some winter at sometime during the winter. *))

No indications at all when this colder weather might end.

It hasn't even *started* yet!

--

Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Thursday, January 9, 2014 7:27:12 AM UTC, vidcapper wrote:
On 08/01/2014 19:50, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a change on the cards. Agreement and consistency leads me to forecast of a cold continental flow with an easterly component.



**On Saturday, 18th January, at T240, high pressure to the north, or north-east of the UK will lead to a continental flow with an easterly component. Temperatures will be well-below average, with daytime temperatures rising little above freezing in the east of the UK. If skies clear, night-time temperatures will be very cold in some areas, with frosts widespread. Any disturbances in this flow could produce snow showers in the east and any attempted ingress of Atlantic air could produce a band of heavy snow in the west."

What may well happen is grey skies with little change from day-to-day and cold winds. Brrrrrr. Not looking forward to it, but I suppose we have to have some winter at sometime during the winter. *))

No indications at all when this colder weather might end.

It hasn't even *started* yet!

Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Very true and neither might it start; but I'm talking model output at 10 days, of course.

In article ,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
On Wednesday, 8 January 2014 22:35:06 UTC, John Hall wrote:


As far as I can see the cold air is over the Arctic at present, and over

the next week heads south and subsequently west towards us. I think

we've seen in the past that big changes can happen very rapidly. I refer

you to the charts in mid-January 1947.

Oh John, stop it :-) you are a tease



If a cold airmass is travelling at just over 20mph, which seems
plausible, then it can cover 3500 miles in a week. So I wouldn't worry
about the nearest really cold air currently being over the Arctic.

Today's 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational runs look less exciting that
yesterday's 12Z, though. They delay things by a day or two and even then
don't bring such cold air over the UK, judging by the 850mb
temperatures. However the GFS operational run is one of the least cold
ensemble members. It also for the first time keeps the easterlies going
all the way out till T+360, which may or may not be significant.
Meanwhile in both yesterday's 12Z and today's 00Z the ECMWF seems keen
for winds to veer SEly, which would bring in milder air from southern
Europe.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"