I was going to go with the blocked situations schema in the North Atlantic and suggest that the NAEFS showing three highs in a row in a manner very similar to the set-up it gives for volcanic activity of the sort we have enjoyed of late a la blocking lows and highs in the Atlantic Approaches.

Then I saw this:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
A day late, yes but not a penny short.

I lost confidence not because the show had changed on the model runs I use:

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

That has a stipend of several versions to choose from and a compendium of all being the mean will make it do what the meteorologists manipulating it want it to do.

This run, OTOH, does what the satellites and various other data sources and computational analysis tell it -and only that. It is full of butterflies and very beautiful in flight:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

But it was and by the first glance at today's offering, still is...
showing absolutely nothing of any tropical storms. It is anything but showing evidence of tropical storms. And it must mean that I have to learn to work this thing all over again.

(Seasoned veterans of my ravings will already know I had this problem last season when handover arrived.)