On the RealClimate site the latest blog discusses the new IPCC climate
report.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...limate-report/

It is a bit easier to read thatn the report itself, but what this post is
about is this web page linked in a comment on the blog. Since it is related
to precictions made on this newsgroup I am linking to it he
http://gergs.net/2013/09/piomas-update/

What it shows is two non linear projections for an ice free Arctic. The
later projection is based on the average ice volume shows no ice in 2030.
The earlier projection based on the the trend of the anomally shows an ice
free Arctic in 2020, agreeing with Graham! However, it is not the average
that will mark the first ice free Arctic. It will be the first minimum to
fall to zero. Looking at the trend of minimums for 2010, 11, & 12 then that
could well happen in 2014!

Cheers, Alastair.