Met office have been really poor with forecasts just lately, especially this
week!
Today's forecast for this area, mist and low cloud clearing to leave a
bright and warm day with a few showers overnight.
The reality is it's overcast and dank with heavy showers, not even close
guys get a grip!!


Graham (North Staffs)

Graham wrote:

Met office have been really poor with forecasts just lately, especially this
week! Today's forecast for this area, mist and low cloud clearing to leave a
bright and warm day with a few showers overnight. The reality is it's
overcast and dank with heavy showers, not even close guys get a grip!!


Graham (North Staffs)

On the basis of the forecasts from a few days ago we arranged to have the glass
in our conservatory replaced yesterday and today. All the glass came out
yesterday. Today we have a very wet conservatory:-( As you say, Graham, the
forecasting for this part of the country has been pretty poor recently. I don't
know if it's the NWP output that has been wide of the mark or if it is the
human interpretation (if there is still any) that has failed. The fact that
heavy showers are being forecast this morning for today doesn't help. In my
case the decisions for today were made a few days ago when the forecast was
favourable. There's absolutely no point in making forecasts for a few days
ahead if they can't be relied on. Even the short-term forecasting has been
pretty dire. The Peak District forecast for today, issued at 1614 yesterday
afternoon said:

---------------------------------
Once again, it is likely to be a dull start with a mixture of mist, low cloud
and hill fog. Through the day the cloud may break to allow some warm bright or
sunny intervals to develop, especially across the south and west of the Park,
with eastern areas most likely to stay cloudy with hill fog. There is also a
chance of patchy light rain and drizzle developing through the evening before
clearer weather arrives from the north towards midnight.
---------------------------------

The reality is very different with spells of rain since dawn.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

The reality is very different with spells of rain since dawn.

Same here Norman, it's dire this morning.
Monday was bad enough but the forecast for Tues and Weds was good so I
thought I'd do some much needed work on the outside of the house as I'm off
work for a few days. Did all the preparing yesterday and now I can't do a
thing, so annoying!
Ah well as soon as I'm back work that big yellow thing in the sky (which we
don't see much here) will be shinning away, such is life


Graham

know if it's the NWP output that has been wide of the mark or if it is the
human interpretation (if there is still any) that has failed. The fact that
heavy showers are being forecast this morning for today doesn't help. In my
case the decisions for today were made a few days ago when the forecast was
favourable. There's absolutely no point in making forecasts for a few days
ahead if they can't be relied on. Even the short-term forecasting has been
pretty dire. The Peak District forecast for today, issued at 1614 yesterday
afternoon said:

Once again, it is likely to be a dull start with a mixture of mist, low cloud
and hill fog. Through the day the cloud may break to allow some warm bright or
sunny intervals to develop, especially across the south and west of the Park,
with eastern areas most likely to stay cloudy with hill fog. There is also a
chance of patchy light rain and drizzle developing through the evening before
clearer weather arrives from the north towards midnight.

The reality is very different with spells of rain since dawn.


Norman Lynagh

Tideswell, Derbyshire

303m a.s.l.

The forecast here has been much the same for days, the old mist persisting along coasts thing, bit of drizzle etc.

We've had that, but we've also had some very different dats, see http://www.sennen-cove.com/imsep13.htm (saves me typing!) Although Tuesday 24th shows cloud, the morning was still & sunny.

We've had fog, very good visibilty, calm, a F5 SE, sharp showers, blue sky with Ac, and steady rain yesterday evening.

Tomorrow's Max temp range for Pz (17C - 22C, seems a safe bet rather than a useful forecast) shows the great uncertainty over cloud/fog/sunshine/rain even for the next 24 hours.

Foggy this morning after overnight rain.

Graham
Penzance

On 25/09/13 10:15, Graham wrote:
Met office have been really poor with forecasts just lately, especially
this week!
Today's forecast for this area, mist and low cloud clearing to leave a
bright and warm day with a few showers overnight.
The reality is it's overcast and dank with heavy showers, not even close
guys get a grip!!


Graham (North Staffs)

I must say I didn't expect this much rain this evening, got rather wet
cycling home from work. It's been raining steadily for the last hour and
a half.

On Wednesday, September 25, 2013 8:30:49 PM UTC+1, Adam Lea wrote:
On 25/09/13 10:15, Graham wrote:

Met office have been really poor with forecasts just lately, especially

this week!

Today's forecast for this area, mist and low cloud clearing to leave a

bright and warm day with a few showers overnight.

The reality is it's overcast and dank with heavy showers, not even close

guys get a grip!!





Graham (North Staffs)



I must say I didn't expect this much rain this evening, got rather wet

cycling home from work. It's been raining steadily for the last hour and

a half.

SACK THE LOT OF 'EM!!!!!! And force them to go and pose for the Next catalogue or other ghastly consumerist rag

On Wednesday, September 25, 2013 11:15:47 AM UTC+2, Graham wrote:
Met office have been really poor with forecasts just lately, especially this

week!

Today's forecast for this area, mist and low cloud clearing to leave a

bright and warm day with a few showers overnight.

The reality is it's overcast and dank with heavy showers, not even close

guys get a grip!!





Graham (North Staffs)

Earned their bonus, then, have they?

Graham wrote:
Met office have been really poor with forecasts just lately, especially
this week!
Today's forecast for this area, mist and low cloud clearing to leave a
bright and warm day with a few showers overnight.
The reality is it's overcast and dank with heavy showers, not even close
guys get a grip!!


Graham (North Staffs)
----------------------------
Seems like they've had a bit of a bad run in a lot of areas this past
week then!
Dave, S.Essex

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Graham wrote:
Met office have been really poor with forecasts just lately, especially
this week!
Today's forecast for this area, mist and low cloud clearing to leave a
bright and warm day with a few showers overnight.
The reality is it's overcast and dank with heavy showers, not even close
guys get a grip!!


Graham (North Staffs)
----------------------------
Seems like they've had a bit of a bad run in a lot of areas this past week
then!

Sometimes they get it wrong and it's a lot better than forecast.
Like yesterday it was supposed to be cloudy with the possibility
of a little brightness later on. It ended up reasonably sunny but
becoming cloudy later on, pretty much the opposite of what was
actually forecast!

Just as crap a forecast though.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On 2013-09-27 17:37:24 +0000, Col said:

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Graham wrote:
Met office have been really poor with forecasts just lately, especially
this week!
Today's forecast for this area, mist and low cloud clearing to leave a
bright and warm day with a few showers overnight.
The reality is it's overcast and dank with heavy showers, not even
close guys get a grip!!


Graham (North Staffs)
----------------------------
Seems like they've had a bit of a bad run in a lot of areas this past
week then!

Sometimes they get it wrong and it's a lot better than forecast.
Like yesterday it was supposed to be cloudy with the possibility
of a little brightness later on. It ended up reasonably sunny but
becoming cloudy later on, pretty much the opposite of what was
actually forecast!

Just as crap a forecast though.

It does seem as though forecasting errors in a southerly airstream,
with a slow moving low over Biscay, are more frequent than for other
scenarios.

I wonder why that should be?

Could it have something to do with the movement of minor troughs around
the upper low, which can have a dramatic effect on local weather, with
the sudden release of potential medium level instability? Or am I just
trying to show off / show my ignorance?