Those 11 days are up and my posting of 4 July suggesting a breakdown of the fine weather today has all gone horribly wrong. I must eat humble pie.
The models have failed me.
Solutions to the second order, non linear partial differential equations were less than realistic. Not even St Swithin has saved me.
I was hoping people will have forgotten 'my forecast' but my name is not Piers Corbyn and I need to come clean.

Something is not quite right in the numerical prediction models.
Personally I think there is some dark energy involved.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

On Monday, July 15, 2013 9:16:52 AM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:
Those 11 days are up and my posting of 4 July suggesting a breakdown of the fine weather today has all gone horribly wrong. I must eat humble pie.

The models have failed me.

Solutions to the second order, non linear partial differential equations were less than realistic. Not even St Swithin has saved me.

I was hoping people will have forgotten 'my forecast' but my name is not Piers Corbyn and I need to come clean.



Something is not quite right in the numerical prediction models.

Personally I think there is some dark energy involved.



Len

Wembury, SW Devon

*))

It's the way you read the runes, grasshopper!

PS I admire the way you have returned to your forecast; enormous respect to you for saying that Len.

PPS The models just don't want to let go of this blocking. There were hints of a breakdown again yesterday, but there are less this morning.

On 2013-07-15 08:16:52 +0000, Len Wood said:

Those 11 days are up and my posting of 4 July suggesting a breakdown of
the fine weather today has all gone horribly wrong. I must eat humble
pie.
The models have failed me.
Solutions to the second order, non linear partial differential
equations were less than realistic. Not even St Swithin has saved me.
I was hoping people will have forgotten 'my forecast' but my name is
not Piers Corbyn and I need to come clean.

Something is not quite right in the numerical prediction models.
Personally I think there is some dark energy involved.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

Honesty reveals a genuine and decent character.

There has been some consistency for a change to more mobility around
Jul 27th. I think that even the most committed hot and dry weather
enthusiast might recognise the need for some general rainfall by then.

I am rather disappointed that, at present, this lengthy spell of
settled weather seems not to be going to end with a thundery spell from
a southerly direction. Maybe AGW has rendered these extinct in this
country?

"Len Wood" wrote in message
...

Something is not quite right in the numerical prediction models.
Personally I think there is some dark energy involved.


Yes, the outgoing longwave radiation scheme is wrong. How are you on quantum
mechanics?

Cheers, Alastair.

On Monday, July 15, 2013 10:52:44 AM UTC+1, Alastair wrote:
"Len Wood" wrote in message ... Something is not quite right in the numerical prediction models. Personally I think there is some dark energy involved. Yes, the outgoing longwave radiation scheme is wrong. How are you on quantum mechanics? Cheers, Alastair.

It's the Uncertainty Principle that permeates through all physics. Meteorology included.
Schrodinger's cat has a lot to answer for. Rumour has it that the cat is dead but I'm not so sure.. I think there is more than one. Saw Mares' tails in the sky recently that looked much more like Cats' tails to me.

They are difficult to model. Uncertain in time and space, and as you correctly say, mean the modelled outgoing longwave radiation is up the creek.

Len

"Len Wood" wrote in message
...
On Monday, July 15, 2013 10:52:44 AM UTC+1, Alastair wrote:
"Len Wood" wrote in message
... Something
is not quite right in the numerical prediction models. Personally I
think there is some dark energy involved. Yes, the outgoing longwave
radiation scheme is wrong. How are you on quantum mechanics? Cheers,
Alastair.

It's the Uncertainty Principle that permeates through all physics.
Meteorology included.
Schrodinger's cat has a lot to answer for. Rumour has it that the
cat is dead but I'm not so sure. I think there is more than one.

Dead, yes. But in what way? We won't know until we can open that tangled
logic:
http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/ns...-or-alive.html

Saw Mares' tails in the sky recently that looked much more like
Cats' [a Cat o' Nine?] tails to me.

That is Chaos Theory and the fractal geometry of nature, but it is yet to be
established that it applies to Quantum Mechanics.

They are difficult to model. Uncertain in time and space, and as you
correctly say, mean [that] the modelled outgoing longwave radiation
is up the creek.

It is not that the modelling is too complicated. It is that the models are
wrong. Schrodinger's cat is a thought experiment, and so is the proof of
Kirchhoff's Law. The current models use Kirchhoff's Law to calculate
the outgoing longwave radiation. That is where they are going wrong.

But I agree, that is pretty difficult idea to accept.

Cheers, Alastair.