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| uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
May 17th 13, 07:03 PM
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Interesting developments at T240+
gfs and ECM 12z.......
...........summer in the last week of May? |
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#2
May 17th 13, 09:17 PM
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Interesting developments at T240+
On Fri, 17 May 2013 12:03:40 -0700, Dawlish wrote:
gfs and ECM 12z....... ..........summer in the last week of May? Are you musing, or forecasting? |
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#3
May 17th 13, 10:35 PM
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Interesting developments at T240+
On Friday, 17 May 2013 20:03:40 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
gfs and ECM 12z....... ..........summer in the last week of May? And looking at the models makes you a forecaster? Even I can do that. |
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#4
May 18th 13, 06:01 AM
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Interesting developments at T240+
On Friday, May 17, 2013 10:17:13 PM UTC+1, Dennis wrote:
On Fri, 17 May 2013 12:03:40 -0700, Dawlish wrote: gfs and ECM 12z....... ..........summer in the last week of May? Are you musing, or forecasting? Musing. When it's a forecast, I always make it very clear. A forecast needs both agreement and consistency. However, this morning shows a similar thing. If that consistency is still there this evening, I'll be very interested! |
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#5
May 18th 13, 08:22 AM
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Interesting developments at T240+
On 2013-05-17 22:35:47 +0000, Lawrence13 said:
On Friday, 17 May 2013 20:03:40 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: gfs and ECM 12z....... ..........summer in the last week of May? And looking at the models makes you a forecaster? Even I can do that. Exactly! Which begs the question - what percentage of the daily "forecasts" we see and hear via the media these days is the result of human forecasting, compared to that which is just a description of the computer's forecast ? If Lawrence can sit at home and predict the weather from just looking at the computer model output, why not simply pay him to do it and save a lot of money on flashy graphics and tv weather presenters ? |
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#6
May 18th 13, 04:48 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Interesting developments at T240+
On Friday, May 17, 2013 10:17:13 PM UTC+1, Dennis wrote:
On Fri, 17 May 2013 12:03:40 -0700, Dawlish wrote: gfs and ECM 12z....... ..........summer in the last week of May? Are you musing, or forecasting? More musing: gfs 12z not as positive. |
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#7
May 18th 13, 05:18 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Interesting developments at T240+
On Saturday, 18 May 2013 09:22:37 UTC+1, yttiw wrote:
On 2013-05-17 22:35:47 +0000, Lawrence13 said: On Friday, 17 May 2013 20:03:40 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: gfs and ECM 12z....... ..........summer in the last week of May? And looking at the models makes you a forecaster? Even I can do that. Exactly! Which begs the question - what percentage of the daily "forecasts" we see and hear via the media these days is the result of human forecasting, compared to that which is just a description of the computer's forecast ? If Lawrence can sit at home and predict the weather from just looking at the computer model output, why not simply pay him to do it and save a lot of money on flashy graphics and tv weather presenters ? Yes my hand gesticulations are second to none. |
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#8
May 19th 13, 07:11 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Interesting developments at T240+
On Saturday, May 18, 2013 5:48:45 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, May 17, 2013 10:17:13 PM UTC+1, Dennis wrote: On Fri, 17 May 2013 12:03:40 -0700, Dawlish wrote: gfs and ECM 12z....... ..........summer in the last week of May? Are you musing, or forecasting? More musing: gfs 12z not as positive. Back to model watching. The hints and allegations from the models have proved to be smoke and mirrors. Summer's on hold! Yes; anyone, even Larry, could have forecast summer from those charts 24-36 hours ago - but in LRF at 10 days, "anyone" is usually wrong. *)) |
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#9
May 19th 13, 08:02 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Interesting developments at T240+
On 2013-05-19 07:11:40 +0000, Dawlish said:
On Saturday, May 18, 2013 5:48:45 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: On Friday, May 17, 2013 10:17:13 PM UTC+1, Dennis wrote: On Fri, 17 May 2013 12:03:40 -0700, Dawlish wrote: gfs and ECM 12z....... ..........summer in the last week of May? Are you musing, or forecasting? More musing: gfs 12z not as positive. Back to model watching. The hints and allegations from the models have proved to be smoke and mirrors. Summer's on hold! Why is the latest version of the model product always assumed to be the correct one? Yes; anyone, even Larry, could have forecast summer from those charts 24-36 hours ago - but in LRF at 10 days, "anyone" is usually wrong. *)) Presumably, that must include yourself? In other words, summer may not be on hold. |
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#10
May 19th 13, 08:17 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Interesting developments at T240+
"yttiw" wrote in message news:201305190902479698-cuddles@britpostcom... On 2013-05-19 07:11:40 +0000, Dawlish said: Back to model watching. The hints and allegations from the models have proved to be smoke and mirrors. Summer's on hold! Why is the latest version of the model product always assumed to be the correct one? It isn't but you can only go on what the latest model output suggests. Yes; anyone, even Larry, could have forecast summer from those charts 24-36 hours ago - but in LRF at 10 days, "anyone" is usually wrong. *)) Presumably, that must include yourself? Of course. Dawlish rarely forecasts at 10 days because usually there isn't enough cross-model support. He may claim an 80% success rate but that's just cherry-picking the times when there is model consistency out that far. Not that there's anything wrong with that, it just shows how difficult it is. In other words, summer may not be on hold. It may be back on in 24-36hrs. Or not, as the case may be.... -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Snow videos: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg |
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